Vuelta Cycling - Spanish tour 2024 Predictions & Betting tips
Discover our analysis of the Vuelta a España 2024, as well as the keys to successfully betting on the Spanish tour, and follow the advice of our cycling experts!
Presentation and predictions for the 2024 Spanish Tour - Cycling
Are you a cycling fan and do you follow the main stages of this race? Then you probably know that the Vuelta is one of the three big events on the stage calendar and that the Spanish round holds a highly-regarded place alongside the Tour de France and the Giro d'Italia.
Kuss and Vingegaard, first and second respectively in last year's Vuelta, are on the provisional list of participants for the 2024 event. Starting from Lisbon for the second time in history, the race kicks off on 17 August and finishes on 8 September. In total, the riders will cover 3,265 kilometres divided into 21 stages.
Who are the favourites and what aspects are most important to predict the winner of each day’s stage? We’ll provide you with the keys to the Vuelta in our analysis of the Spanish round.
Winner prediction: who will win La Vuelta 2024?
Defending champion Sepp Kuss will be a popular pick to retain his crown at the Vuelta. The American rider has 9 career victories in addition to his 2023 Vuelta de Espana triumph, which includes 2018 Tour of Utah and stage wins at the 2021 Tour de France and the 2019 Vuelta.
The other riders will be pleased to know that neither Jonas Vingegaard nor Tadej Pogacar will be participating in this year’s Vuelta. Vingegaard was last season’s runner-up and is the #3 UCI ranked rider, while Tadej Pogacar currently holds the #1 spot on the UCI rankings.
With a number of high-profile withdrawals already, the path looks to be clearing for Slovenian rider Primož Roglič. The back-to-back 2019 and 2020 winner of this event, Roglič has plenty of experience to call upon and knows this course well. The 34-year-old is also in good form after having just captured the Critérium del Dauphiné 2024 in June, his second time winning the event in the last three years.
He’ll face stiff competition from the likes of three-time Vuelta third-place finisher Enric Mas Nicolau (2018, 2021 and 2022), Mikel Landa and of course, defending champion Kuss. However, given his experience at this event and a slightly weaker field, we think the Slovenian can pull this one off. Our prediction for La Vuelta a España 2024: Roglič wins!
La Vuelta a España odds: Who are the top favourites to win?
- Primož Roglič - 2.50
- Juan Ayuso - 7.00
- Enric Mas Nicolau - 8.00
- Adam Yates - 8.00
- Joao Almeida - 9.00
- Sepp Kuss - 10.00
- Daniel Martinez - 13.00
- Mikel Landa - 13.00
- Carlos Rodriguez - 19.00
- Mattias Skjelmose - 19.00
Odds found on Bet365
Route of the Spanish Tour 2024: the detailed route
The 79th edition of the Spanish race will start with a time trial in Lisbon and finish with a time trial in Madrid that will add up to 44 kilometres against the clock. In between, the participants will have to face five medium mountain stages, eight mountain stages and six stages designed to give the finishers a chance.
As on most occasions and apart from the time trial in the Spanish capital, the mountains of Asturias and Cantabria will be decisive. The Lagos de Covadonga, the Alto de Moncalvillo and Picón Blanco are the key stages to pay special attention to as these often decide the outcome of the Vuelta.
Beginner cycling bettors: how does La Vuelta work?
The Vuelta a España has definitely found its place in the cycling calendar between August and September. Along with the Tour de France and the Giro d'Italia, it is considered one of the most important stage races in the world.
The race is designed so that all cyclists have a chance, combining all types of stages: mountain, mid-mountain, flat and time trials. The Vuelta aims for a balanced and exciting calendar.
Despite this, its location in the year, very close to the end of the Tour, means that many of the participating teams do not confirm their riders until days before the race, depending on the state in which they have finished the French round.
La Vuelta classification: how is it calculated?
The rider who takes the least time to complete La Vuelta a España is proclaimed the winner of the race. However, there is a caveat. In order to encourage the top finishers in the general ranking to also remain competitive in their pursuit of stage victories, the round awards 10 seconds, 6 seconds and 4 seconds to the first three finishers of each stage in line. Additionally, 3 seconds, 2 seconds and 1 second are awarded to the riders who arrive in the lead at each of the nine intermediate sprints and for each of the ten bonus sprints on ten mountain passes.
Since 2010, the leader's jersey, trousers and helmet of the cyclist at the top of the general ranking have been red. The blue dotted jersey belongs to the leader of the mountain classification, the green jersey belongs to the leader of the points classification and the white jersey belongs to the Best Young Rider.
How to make good predictions on La Vuelta?
Below we have laid out four keys that we will then go into detail about which can help you when it comes to making predictions about the Vuelta.
These four transcendental aspects should be factored into your analysis for each day of race:
- Take into account the profile of the stage
- Take into account form of the riders
- Knowing the objectives of each rider and each team
- Knowing the weather conditions
Obviously, following these guidelines is not a guarantee of success, but it will significantly increase the chances of getting the winner of the stage right every day.
Take into account the profile of the stage
The type of stage (flat, flat with a high finish, time trial, mountain stage...) means that depending on the profile, the favourites will vary. If the stages are flat, that will favour the sprinters or the adventurers who try to ‘fish’ for a stage victory with an individual or collective breakaway. The time trials will be reserved for the specialists. And in the mountain stages, the strongest riders of the Vuelta will usually be present at the finish, because these are the days when the differences are the biggest and most important for the general ranking.
Taking into account the form of the riders
It is essential to be informed each day of what happened on the previous day. A cyclist who has suffered a breakdown one day and has lost a lot of time may be showing signs of weakness or a physical problem. However, another rider who has endured among the best in a difficult stage may have the strength to fight for the stage 24 hours later.
Knowing the objectives of each rider and each team
Is the rider we are considering betting on aiming to finish atop the overall rankings or would they view a place on the podium to be just as good? Does that rider have a teammate who is better placed in the general rankings? There are many variables that change from day to day. A rider may be considered the leader of a team but a teammate may have a better shot in the overall rankings. Or if the stages go by and a team does not have a major contender in its ranks, it will predictably then focus on stage victories. In this way, that team will be less conservative than if they were thinking and planning for the long term.
Knowing the weather conditions
A rainy day can multiply the risk of crashes and will lead riders to be more conservative and take fewer risks, which increases the chances of arriving in a pack. On the other hand, some riders are better able to withstand extremely hot conditions than others. With very high temperatures in mountain stages, the differences at the finish line are likely to be greater.
What not to do when betting on La Vuelta
There are some general guidelines that should be followed in order to increase your chances of success when betting on the Vuelta a España. Below are some habits you should avoid doing:
- Placing a bet without knowing what has happened on the previous day (crashes, lapses, fatigue...).
- Betting on a rider because of his ‘name’ without knowing his form.
- Betting without studying the profile of the stage and the riders it favours.
- Being seduced by very high odds on riders who are not likely to win.
- Live betting on the rider in first place without knowing the remaining kilometres or the situation of the race.
- Betting on teammates who will sacrifice themselves in the important stages for their team leaders.
By following the advice given above and taking into account what not to do, the chances of success increase exponentially. They don't guarantee success, but they can bring you closer to it.
In short: how to bet on La Vuelta 2024?
If we had to summarise in a few words how to bet correctly on the Vuelta and other competitions to increase our chances of success, we would highlight that the key is ‘being well informed’.
If it is already difficult to predict the winner of a stage due to the stiff competition in the peloton, it is even more difficult if we do not do the proper research and consult the predictions of SportyTrader.
In cycling in general and in the Vuelta in particular, there are many factors that influence whether a rider wins a stage victory or a stage race.
So, both for pre-stage betting and live betting, it is essential to invest time in finding out about the profile of the stage, the riders in form, those most in need, those who may be in pain due to a fall 24 hours before, those who are predestined to do team work that day, sacrificing their chances of victory... Everything counts! The more information, the closer we will be to getting it right and to making the most of the Vuelta a España! And if you like sport in general, check out our sports predictions for all sports.
Vuelta Cycling - Spanish tour 2024 : Frequently Asked Questions
The Vuelta a España 2024 will start on 17 August in Lisbon.
The 2024 Vuelta will have 21 stages, with 3,265 kilometres to be covered by the peloton.
The 18 UCI WorldTour teams (Alpecin-Deceuninck, Arkea-B&B Hotels, Astana Qazaqstan, Bahrain Victorious, Bora-Hansgrohe, Cofidis, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team, EF Education-Easypost, Groupama-FDJ, Ineos Grenadiers, Intermarché-Wanty, Lidl-Trek, Movistar Team, Soudal-Quick Step, Team DSM-Firmenich POSTNL, Team Jayco Alula, Team Visma| Lease a Bike and UAE Team Emirates), the two best UCI ProTeams in the 2023 UCI Ranking (Lotto DSTNY and Israel Premier Tech) and two guests (Team Kern Pharma and Euskaltel-Euskadi).
