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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
France could confirm their qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a win over Iceland when the teams meet on Monday in Reykjavik. This Group D match between third-placed Iceland and the group leaders, Les Bleus, comes with our prediction of under 3.5 goals.
With three points in the campaign (W1, L2), Iceland are one point behind second-placed Ukraine ahead of this round. France have three wins out of three and have a five-point lead over Ukraine. The group winners qualify directly for the World Cup, while the runners-up advance to the play-offs.
Iceland were beaten 5-3 at home against Ukraine in the last round, which was preceded by a 2-1 defeat to France on matchday two. These defeats, in a way, erased the positives of their 5-0 win over Azerbaijan in the first match of this campaign.
Recent home form hasn’t been comforting either, as Iceland lost three of their four recent home games (W1, L3), with the only win coming against Azerbaijan.
France won 3-0 at home against Azerbaijan in their last match, which made it three out of three in this qualification campaign, conceding just one goal. With nine wins out of their last 12 matches (W9, D1, L2), France have the best momentum to extend their run.
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The Best Betting Odds for Iceland v France Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
|
|
11 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
|
|
8 | 5 | 1.3 |
|
|
8.5 | 5 | 1.29 |
|
|
12 | 5.8 | 1.23 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Iceland and France?
Our prediction for the Iceland vs France match is: under 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 13/10/2025 between Iceland and France in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 22.56% for a win of Iceland against France with odds of 25 at BC Game.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Iceland vs France is 10.83% with odds of 9 at BC Game.
- Our prediction model gives a 66.61% chance ⭐ for a win of France vs Iceland with odds of 1.36 at 22bet.
Iceland - France Prediction and Best Odds:
| Iceland France Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| France wins | 66.61% | 1.36 at 22bet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.66% | 1.67 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 58.33% | 2.08 at Unibet |
| Half-time / Full-time: France/France | 29.53% | 1.91 at Ladbrokes |
Iceland vs France Form
Iceland and France's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
|
3
|
7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Iceland and France Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
5 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
5 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Iceland vs France Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2019 - Euro
11 Oct 2018 - International Friendlies
Iceland against France Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Most goals and assists
Iceland
France
A. Gudmundsson
(4 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(5 Goals)
Iceland - France Key Points
- France’s last four matches produced under 3.5 goals.
- France won their last two matches against Iceland with a single-goal margin.
- France kept a clean sheet in three of their last four matches.
- Iceland lost three of their recent four home games.
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Our Iceland vs France Prediction
France are assured of a play-off spot based on their Nations League ranking but have not let their guard down. With three consecutive wins, they stand on the cusp of qualifying directly for the World Cup with a victory here and other results going their way. Iceland’s chances are on the edge, as a defeat here could push them to the edge of elimination. Regardless, their recent form has been up and down, which is a concern.
France have been defensively strong, and that could continue here, which is why our Iceland vs France prediction is under 3.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Iceland France
| Iceland vs France | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland wins | 26 | 10 | -61.5% |
| Draw | 9 | 5.5 | -38.9% |
| France wins | 1.1 | 1.3 | +18.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- France is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 18.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 90.9% and is now 76.9% (-14.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Iceland vs. France game!
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Try your luck on this year's World Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
