Copa Libertadores 2024 Predictions & Betting tips

The Copa Libertadores dazzles fans with its one of a kind passion and vibrancy. We’re into the semi-final of South America’s most coveted tournament and we will have all the information you need to win your 2024 Copa Libertadores bets: predictions, the statistics and the best football betting odds from all of the top bookmakers.

Copa Libertadores Presentation and Prediction

The Copa Libertadores is the main international club competition in South America. It’s undoubtedly the most prestigious and holds a similar standing to the UEFA Champions League on the continent. With such an entertaining and intense tournament, it has naturally become a very popular competition to bet on, even for punters who don’t regularly follow Latin American football. Fluminense are the defending champions after winning their first ever Copa Libertadores title with a 2-1 extra time victory over Boca Juniors.

Ready to dive into the fiery world of the Copa Libertadores? Our experts have got you covered! On SportyTrader you’ll find predictions and analysis on all of the big matches in this competition. Continue reading below to see our pick on which team will win the cup as well as a number of useful statistics that you can apply when making your own predictions!

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Copa Libertadores Title Prediction: Which Team Will Lift La Copa in 2024?

The early odds are out for the 2024 Copa Libertadores and unsurprisingly it's Brazil that dominates the bookmakers' top favorites. With Fluminense's win over Boca Juniors in Rio de Janeiro last season, Brazilian teams have now won the last five straight Copa Libertadores trophies. Additionally, three of those five have featured an all-Brazilian final.

Fluminense will undoubtedly garner much of the attention being the defending champions but this is a notoriously difficult competition to win back-to-back titles in. Only one team in the last 20 years has been able to successfully defend their Copa Libertadores crown and they also happen to be our early pick to win the 2024 edition: Palmeiras. In the 2023 edition, Verdão came within a penalty shootout of making what would have been a third final in the last four years. They've been a mainstay in South America's most prestigious club competition over the last few years, winning the cup in 2020 and 2021 and making the semi-finals in 2022 and 2023. They run like a well-oiled machine under manager Abel Ferreira who averages 1.95 points per game since taking over in November of 2020. Palmeiras are the current Brazil Serie A champions, edging out Gremio by two points to claim their second consecutive Brazilian league title.

Their main competition will be Flamengo, as has often been the case over the last five years. Flamengo are the oddsmakers favorites but had a really poor showing in the most recent season. There was an air of arrogance about them as they failed to convert a number of chances against Olimpia in the round of 16 first leg, a sequence that would ultimately cost them as they were eliminated early. They were not impressive on the domestic front, either, finishing in fifth-place.

Overall, it's the consistency and machine-like ability to get results which has us backing Palmeiras as our pick to win the 2024 Copa Libertadores. If you're looking for slightly higher odds, Botafogo at their current price could represent an excellent value pick (read more about their chances in the group preview section below).

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2024 Copa Libertadores favorites - Odds to win the title

Below you'll find the top picks to win the Copa Libertadores according to the bookmakers.

Team	Betting odds
Flamengo	4.50
Palmeiras	5.00
Fluminense	7.00
River Plate	7.00
Atletico Mineiro	7.00
Sao Paulo	11.00
Gremio	19.00
Botafogo	19.00

Odds found on Bet365

As you can see from the above odds, it's Brazil that dominates the representation among the favorites. With the absence of Argentinian giants and 2023 runners-up Boca Juniors, the one-sidedness is even more pronounced. Think a Brazilian club will win it yet again this year? Don't hesitate to turn your football prediction into a bet with a bookmaker. It might just hit the nail on the head.

Copa Libertadores 2024 winner: odds on all teams at online bookmakers

The unpredictability of the Copa Libertadores is what makes it such an enthralling competition. Below you'll find the odds on all of the competing teams:

• Flamengo - 4.50
• Palmeiras - 5.00
• Fluminense - 7.00
• River Plate - 7.00
• Atletico Mineiro - 7.00
• Sao Paulo - 11.00
• Gremio - 19.00
• Botafogo - 19.00
• Independiente del Valle - 29.00
• LDU Quito - 34.00
• Colo Colo - 34.00
• Libertad Asuncion - 51.00
• San Lorenzo - 51.00
• Peñarol - 51.00
• Estudiantes - 51.00
• Barcelona Guayaquil - 67.00
• Rosario Central - 67.00
• Millonarios - 67.00
• CA Talleras - 67.00
• Nacional - 67.00
• Bolivar - 81.00
• Cerro Porteño - 101.00
• Junior - 101.00
• The Strongest - 151.00
• Universitario - 151.00
• Alianza Lima - 151.00
• Huachipato  - 151.00
• Palestino - 201.00
• Deportivo Tachira - 251.00
• Caracas - 251.00
• Liverpool Montevideo - 251.00
• Cobresal - 251.00

Odds found on Bet365

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Copa Libertadores Top Scorer Prediction: Who Will Score the Most Goals?

Fluminense striker German Cano claimed the golden boot last season with 13 goals en route to lifting the Copa Libertadores crown. He'll be back at it this time around and, despite being 35 years of age, is playing some of the best football of his career. One of the most exciting players in the competition and a front-runner for the award every year is Flamengo's star striker Gabriel Barbosa. However, there is a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over the 27-year-old as he faces a potential two-year suspension following charges of obstructing anti-doping tests. This makes his teammate and Flamengo's number 9 Pedro the more enticing choice to win the award at the moment. Pedro has scored 64 goals in 120 matches for his club in 2022 and 2023 combined, and he is already off to a blistering start to the current season with 11 goals in his first 11 games. With Flamengo expected to make a deep run, expect Pedro's name to be among those at the top of the scorer’s list.

If you're looking to back a Palmeiras player, Jose Manual Lopez could be a decent shout at what is sure to be an excellent price. The 23-year-old Argentine is off to a red-hot start this season and could find his play time increase with teenage sensation Endrick set to depart for Real Madrid in July (and thus will miss the knockout stages). Raphael Veiga could be another solid choice as the attacking midfielder gets forward plenty and is always among Palmeiras' top-scoring players of the season.

Ultimately, we're still waiting on the top scorer odds to be released before we can make a definite prediction.

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Our predictions for the Copa Libertadores 2024 group stage

The Copa Libertadores group stage kicks off with 32 teams in contention split into eight groups of four. The group stage runs from 2 April 2024 to 30 May 2024 and will see the top two finishing teams from each group advance to the knockout stages. The third-place finishing teams will move on to the first knockout round in the Copa Sudamericana, so there is plenty at stake for each and every team. Below we give our thoughts and predictions on each group.

Copa Libertadores Group A (Fluminense, Cerro, Alianza Lima, Colo-Colo)

Group A of the the 2024 Copa Libertadores sees the reigning champions Fluminense handed a very manageable group. The Brazilian side will come up against Cerro Porteño, Alianza Lima and Colo-Colo and will be expected to finish top of the pile. Flu were able to hold on to many of their players from last year after their briliant championship campaign. However, we have doubts over their ability to repeat in what is a notoriously difficult competition to go back-to-back in.

Colo-Colo welcome former Boca Juniors manager Jorge Almiron to the club as he looks to guide the 1991 Copa Libertadores champions to the knockout stage for the first time since 2018. The Chileans should benefit from Almiron's experience and his pragmatic approach which makes his teams tough to beat. Ultimately, Fluminense shouldn't have much trouble topping this group with Colo-Colo the likely second-place team.

Our Group A winner prediction: Fluminense

Group A winner odds:

• Fluminense - 1.33
• Colo-Colo - 5.50
• Cerro Porteño - 6.50
• Alianza Lima - 34.00

Odds found on Bet365

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Copa Libertadores Group B (Sao Paulo, Barcelona, Talleras, Cobresal)

Group B sees three-time Copa Libertadores champions Sao Paulo making their return to the tournament after a three-year hiatus. Their main rivals in the group will be Argentinian side Talleras, making only their fourth appearance in the competition, as well as experienced Ecuadorian side Barcelona who finished as semi-finalists in 2021. The long-shot of the group is Chilean side Cobresal who have a combined 1-2-3 record in their two prior Copa Libertadores appearances dating back to 1986. They will have an altitude advantage, however, as they are playing their home matches in the Estadio Zorros del Desierto which is 7,500 feet above sea level.

Sao Paulo, who lifted the Copa do Brasil last year, are a good enough side to secure first-place in this group. We expect Talleras to put up a strong fight as they play attractive football (second leading scorers in Primera A currently) and will be confident of beating any team on their day.

Our Group B winner prediction: Sao Paulo

Group B winner odds:

• Sao Paulo - 1.36
• Talleras - 5.00
• Barcelona - 6.50
• Cobresal - 34.00

Odds found on Bet365

Copa Libertadores Group C (Gremio, Estudiantes, The Strongest, Huachipato)

Once again, a Brazilian team is favored to win their respective group (something that you will notice is a trend in this year's Copa Libertadores). Gremio return to the Copa for the first time since 2021 with the three-time champions hoping for a repeat of their 2017 cup winning campaign. They'll face off against storied Argentinian club Estudiantes who are four-time winners of this competition (the most recent coming in 2009). Bolivan club The Strongest are sure to be a tricky match with their home-field advantage in the altitude of La Paz. Huachipato, meanwhile, aren't expected to do much as they are the underdogs of the group.

Luis Suarez is a massive loss for Gremio following his move to Inter Miami after banging in 26 goals last season and contributing 17 assists. There are certainly major questions marks as to the replacements they have brought in (35-year-old Diego Costa and Cristian Pavon) to bolster the attack. This group certainly has the potential to spring some upsets and with the current odds on offer, Estudiantes look good value to capture the top spot.

Our Group C winner prediction: Estudiantes

Group C winner odds:

• Gremio - 1.57
• Estudiantes - 3.50
• The Strongest - 7.00
• Huachipato - 21.00

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Copa Libertadores Group D (LDU Quito, Junior, Botafogo, Universitario)

After leading the 2023 Brazil Serie A for much of the campaign, Botafogo eventually ran out of gas in the home stretch. However, it was enough for them to secure a fifth-place finish and a spot in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers. They would get past Aurora in the second round before dispatching fellow Brazilian outfit RB Bragantino to earn their place in the Copa Libertadores group stage for only the sixth time in their club's history. LDU Quito come into this year's edition of the competition with a ton of momentum after winning the 2023 Copa Sudamericana. The Ecuadorian side will be confident of topping Group D as they have a wealth of experience in continental club competitions. They're making their 21st appearance in the Copa Libertadores and were crowned champions back in 2008.

Botafogo were incredibly active in the transfer market and looked to have really strengthened their team ahead of this campaign (most notably Luiz Henrique from La Liga side Real Betis). They're certainly a team to watch in this competition and they should have little trouble booking their passage to the knockout rounds. Expect Fogo and Quito to comfortably qualify in the top two spots, although we ultimately think it will be the Brazilian side that takes first at what is a very attractive price.

Our Group D winner prediction: Botafogo

Group D winner odds:

• Botafogo - 1.80
• LDU Quito - 2.50
• Junior - 9.00
• Universitario - 21.00

Copa Libertadores Group E (Flamengo, Bolivar, Millonarios, Palestino)

The competition favorites get started in Group E with Flamengo looking to bounce back after a disappointing round of 16 exit last year. Mengão have been a dominant force in this tournament over the last few years, capturing two titles (2019, 2022) as well as a runner-up finish (2021). They've been handed a straightforward group and will be expected to make another deep run as they boast one of the most talented squads on the continent. Second-place will be up for grabs between Bolivan club Bolivar, Colombian side Millonarios and Palestino from Chile.

With a red-hot unbeaten run in the local Carioca tournament in Brazil (which included taking seven points out of nine against reigning champions Fluminense), it's easy to see why many fancy this Flamengo team to recapture the Libertadores title. They should have no problem finishing first in what is one of the easier groups to call in this competition.

Our Group E winner prediction: Flamengo

Group E winner odds:

• Flamengo - 1.16
• Bolivar - 8.50
• Millonarios - 10.00
• Palestino - 26.00

Copa Libertadores Group F (Palmeiras, Independiente del Valle, San Lorenzo, Liverpool)

The other dominant force over the last five years in the Copa Libertadores, Palmeiras begin their campaign in Group F. The 2020 and 2021 champions were the first team to win back-to-back titles in this competition since Boca Juniors in 2001. Joining them will be Ecuadorian side Independiente del Valle who finished as the runners-up in the 2016 edition. Del Valle will be gunning for the second-place position after a disappointing group stage exit in last year's Copa Libertadores. Potentially standing in their way is Argentinian club San Lorenzo, winners of the Copa in 2014, who make their return to the competiton after a three year absence. Liverpool Montevideo are massive outsiders to finish in the top spot despite having a few very excititing talents, most notably Luciano Rodriguez who will be leading the front line.

The eyes of Europe will be on Endrick in this group stage with the 17-year-old garnering tremendous hype ahead of his move to La Liga in the summer. However, there is no shortage of talented young players at Palmeiras. As we touched on earlier, Argentine Jose Manual Lopez could be another to keep an eye on as he could have a big role to play at some point in this Copa Libertadores if Verdão are to make a run to the championship. 

Our Group F winner prediction: Palmeiras

Group F winner odds:

• Palmeiras - 1.20
• Independiente del Valle - 6.50
• San Lorenzo - 9.00
• Liverpool Montevideo - 51.00

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Copa Libertadores Group G (Peñarol, Atletico Mineiro, Rosario Central, Caracas)

Group G in the Copa Libertadores represents the seventh consecutive group with a Brazilian team that is favored to finish first. Atletico Mineiro, who finished third in the Brazil Serie A last season, come into the 2024 Copa with high expectations. The 2013 champions didn't qualify for the competition last year but come into this edition as one of the favorites to win it all. One look at their attacking front line and it's easy to see why -- Galo boasts one of the best attacking units in the tournament talent wise with the likes of Hulk (who has 101 goals in 182 appearances for CAM), Paulinho and recent addition Gustavo Scarpa. Therefore, we believe Atletico Mineiro should be able to top this group fairly easily.

Second-place will be much more closely contested with Argentinian side Rosario Central and legendary Uruguayan club Peñarol both neck and neck according to the bookmakers. Peñarol will lean on their experience as the 2024 campaign represents their 49th time that they have participated in the Copa Libertadores since 1960. They've been crowned champions five times, which ranks as the third most all time, although their most recent title came way back in 1987. In fact, Peñarol haven't been able to make it out of the group stages since 2011, the season that they would go on to finish as runners-up to Santos. However, with a strong start to the season so far, we think this could be the year that they finally break back through to the knockout stages.

Our Group G winner prediction: Atletico Mineiro

Group G winner odds:

• Atletico Mineiro - 1.40
• Rosario Central - 5.50
• Peñarol - 6.00
• Caracas - 21.00

Copa Libertadores Group H (River Plate, Libertad, Deportivo Tachira, Nacional)

Finally, Group H in the Copa Libertadores gives us the first and only group in the competition without a Brazilian side favored. Of course, it's also the only group in the tournament that doesn't contain a Brazilian club to begin with. The result is Argentinian giants River Plate as the overwhelming favorites to finish in first-place. They'll be joined by an intriguing duo of Paraguayan club Libertad and Uruguayan club Nacional which should make for an entertaining spectacle as they battle it out for second-place. One of the two Venezuelan clubs taking part, Deportivo Tachira are the group outsiders but will be confident of potentially springing a surprise on their home turf.

With this year's final being played at El Monumental, home stadium of River Plate, there will be immense pressure on the four-time Libertadores champions to make it to the championship-deciding match. Manager Martin Demichelis has River playing attractive football since taking over at the start of 2023, with the results manifesting in the form of three trophies during that time. In his 69 matches in charge so far, Demichelis has 41 victories, 14 draws and only 14 defeats, scoring 132 goals and conceding 74. It's hard to see past the Argentinians in the final group as they should comfortably secure passage to the round of 16 in the top spot.

Our Group H winner prediction: River Plate

Group H winner odds:

• River Plate - 1.16
• Libertad - 9.00
• Nacional - 9.00
• Deportivo Tachira - 26.00

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As you can see from the above, we aren't anticipating too many shocks at this stage of the tournament. The compositions of each group should lead to a situation where there is simply too big of a gulf in quality between the favorites and the rest of the pack. However, that means that there should be some intense battles for second-place as there are some really evenly matched sides going at it in almost every group.

Beginner’s Guide to How the Copa Libertadores Works

The 2024 Copa Libertadores sees 47 teams from 10 South American countries participating including the initial qualification stages. Once the qualifying dust has settled, 32 teams begin the group stages. Allocation for spots in the Copa Libertadores differs from country to country, with the stronger domestic leagues receiving more spots. 

• At the start of the group stage there are: five teams from both Brazil and Argentina, two from Chile, Colombia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.
• The previous years’ winner is automatically granted entry as well as the winner of the previous season’s Copa Sudamericana.
• Four teams from qualifying enter into the group stage.
• The first qualifying round begins on February 6th for the 2024 edition 
• The group stage kicks off on April 2nd and runs until May 30th 
• The round of 16 begins on August 13th and runs through to the semi-final which concludes on October 31st.
• Knockout stage games are played across two legs, home and away, with the higher aggregate scoreline advancing. The final is a single elimination game.
• The final takes place on November 30th, 2024.

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How to Make Good Predictions on Copa Libertadores Matches?

We’ve compiled a list of useful betting strategies that can assist you when making your next Copa Libertadores predictions:

• Match motivation and the fixture congestion
• Use detailed statistics to analyze team performance 
• Account for player injuries and suspensions
• Consider the form of the teams
• Compare odds across bookmakers

Below you’ll learn about the betting techniques used by our experts and exactly how to implement them for use in South America's top cup competition.

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1. Match motivation and fixture congestion

Match motivation applies more for the group stage. Situations arise where a team has no possibility of advancing from their group heading into the final match or two. However, be aware that the third-place group finishers earn entry into the Copa Sudamericana knockout stages. This means that even teams that might be eliminated from a top two group finish can still potentially have something to play for.

A team’s fixture list also must be factored into the equation when you are analyzing matches. Is the team on short rest? Are they coming off a heated rivalry domestic fixture on the weekend? Did the manager opt to rotate his first choice players so they would be fit for the Copa Libertadores? These are all questions you should ask yourself when analyzing a matchup in the Copa Libertadores. Due to the prestige and importance of the tournament on the continent, clubs will often prioritize the Copa Libertadores above their domestic leagues.

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2. Use detailed statistics to analyze team performance

There are a number of useful stats that will help you to gauge which way a match might go. The Copa Libertadores is a tournament which sees home sides enjoy a distinct advantage, one that is much more pronounced than other leagues. This is down to a few reasons including long travel times, drastic differences in altitude / weather and intimidating home crowds.

Take note of a team’s average shots total, goal conversion rate, opponent penalty box touches, clear cut scoring chances and clean sheet percentage. Note how these statistics differ when the team is home vs away. Some sites will also provide expected goals (xG) statistics which can be an excellent way to determine how a team performed. Many hold the viewpoint that a team’s expected goals (and expected goals against) total is one of the most accurate ways to accurately predict current and future results. Use this information in your bets and you’re bound to see an improvement to your bottom line!

3. Account for player injuries and suspensions

The best football punters in the world constantly stay up-to-date with the latest injuries, suspensions and changes to squads in the leagues and competition they bet on. It can be a potential disaster if you bet on a team expecting their star player to suit up only to find out that they are suspended for a match due to accumulating yellow cards. The Copa Libertadores, like many highly-competitive leagues and tournaments, can see a match decided through the brilliance of an individual player.

One way to deal with this potential problem is to wait until the lineups are announced for a given match. This usually occurs anywhere from one hour to  30 minutes before kickoff. However, the trade off here is that you may be sacrificing the ability to beat the line movement by locking a bet early. The benefit is that you are 100% sure how both teams will line up. 

Additionally, a great way to stay on top of team news is by following the social media platforms of different teams. It’s common to find starting lineups, match reviews and player / injury news on the official accounts of platforms such as X / Twitter.

4. Consider the form of the teams

Form always plays a big part when making a prediction on a football match. Like many other sports, football often sees players and teams go through hot and cold streaks. A team playing well and in a good rhythm will, naturally, take that confidence into each match. Logically, you’d expect that team to be able to come up with more consistent performances on the pitch. 

Conversely, teams can also go through cold streaks where nothing seems to go right. They may get a few unlucky bounces of the ball and thus suffer a few losses in a row. Losing can often have a negative impact on a player or team’s confidence which in turn could lead to a below-average quality of performance. Be sure to pay attention to how teams are performing at different points throughout the season.

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5. Compare odds across bookmakers

One of the most important strategies that a bettor can implement is to compare odds across different bookmakers. Betting odds can often differ between some sites, at times even up to 10%. If you can consistently get the best possible line available on the market, you’ll see the benefits in your bottom line come the end of the season!

For example, let’s say you want to back River Plate to get the win over Flamengo. You find the Argentinian club to win at odds of 1.95 on one site but 2.05 on another. While it may not seem like much at first glance, the difference between these two bets would come out to €100 if placing a stake of €10 over the course of 100 bets.Extrapolate that same type of thinking across every bet that you make for an entire season and you can begin to see why shopping for the best price is such a profitable strategy.

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What Not to Do for Your Copa Libertadores Predictions

Just as there are useful betting strategies and techniques, there are also a handful of harmful betting habits you should avoid:

• Chasing losses (ex. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
• Blindly betting on your favorite team
• Regularly betting on heavily favored teams (odds of 1.25 or lower)
• Not practicing proper bankroll management (betting random or more than a fixed amount on each bet)
• Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form
• Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them
• Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet
• Not taking into account underlying statistics
• Underestimating home field advantage in Copa Libertadores matches

Eliminating these bad habits from your betting process will have you on your way to becoming a more profitable bettor!

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Copa Libertadores Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know

In this section we’ll take a look at some of the key statistics that we’ve compiled that you can apply to your future Copa Libertadores predictions. All of these statistics are from the previous campaign (2023):

• Home win percentage: 54%
• Draw percentage: 25%
• Away win percentage: 21%
• Average goals per game: 2.49
• Matches with over 1.5 goals: 70%
• Matches with over 2.5 goals: 50%
• Matches with over 3.5 goals: 26%
• Both teams to score: 50% of matches
• Average home goals: 1.55 per match
• Average away goals: 0.94 per match
• Goals scored in first half: 41%
• Goal scored in second half: 59%
• Most common scoreline: 1-0 home team (12.3%)
• Second most common: 2-1 home team (12.3%)
• Third and fourth: 0-0, 1-1 (10.3% and 9.7%)
• Half-time most common score: 0-0 (34.2%)
• Half-time second most common: 1-0 home team (22.6%)

As you can see from the statistics above, home teams in the Copa Libertadores have a significant home field advantage. This is often larger than leagues such as the Premier League and Bundesliga, which see home teams winning 48% and 47% of their matches, respectively. Bettors should factor this into their equation when making their predictions: it’s often very difficult to get a result as the away team in this competition.

Another point that stands out is the discrepancy between first half goals and second half goals. Punters would be wise to look for bets such a “most goals: second half” or potentially live bet the over at half time.

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In Short: How to Make the Right Copa Libertadores Predictions?

When making your predictions for Copa Libertadores matches, be sure to consult the statistics provided in this article to point you in the right direction. You can also refer back to the key betting strategies that we laid out as well as the ones to avoid! These should all help to give you the edge over the bookmakers.

If you are looking for a different perspective or simply don’t have the time to delve into in-depth analysis on a particular match, head over to our football match predictions page to see what our betting experts have to say. You can also use our Copa Libertadores odds comparator and Libertadores livescore tool to keep you informed. Remember, all of the betting tips provided at SportyTrader are completely free of charge!

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