Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz continues his attempt to win the one Grand Slam title he’s never won. Round three of the outdoor hard court Australian Open sees the Spaniard take on 32nd seed Corentin Moutet. Time for our match prediction.
In the last 16, the winner of this match will face either 14th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or 19th-seeded Tommy Paul.
Not only has Carlos Alcaraz never won this Grand Slam, he’s yet to make it past the quarter-finals. Alcaraz has reached at least the last eight in 11 of his last 12 Grand Slams. The 22-year-old is playing his first tournament of the year.
He’s beaten Adam Walton and Yannick Hanfmann in straight sets to reach this third round.
Corentin Moutet is in round three in Melbourne for the third successive year. He’s only got past this stage at Roland Garros and the US Open.
The 26-year-old Frenchman is 36th in the live rankings, five places below his career-high. Moutet defeated Tristan Schoolkate in straight sets in his first match this week. He lost the first set of his second round match against Michael Zheng but won the next two before his opponent retired in set four.
We tip more than 8.5 games in the first set.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Corentin Moutet Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.01 | 15 |
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1.01 | 15 |
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1.02 | 21 |
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1.01 | 11 |
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1 | 18 |
|
Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet match is: more than 8.5 games in the first set.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet game on 22/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 77.16% chance to win against Corentin Moutet according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.02.
- Corentin Moutet has a 22.84% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 21 at Bet365.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 77.16 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 77.16 % |
| Corentin Moutet | 22.84 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Corentin Moutet Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
16 Nov 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
15 Nov 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
13 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
11 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
17 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Nov 2025 - Davis Cup
4 Nov 2025 - Moselle Open
29 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
28 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
24 Oct 2025 - ATP Vienna
Carlos Alcaraz - Corentin Moutet Key Points
- Moutet has played 14 matches in the Australian Open. More than 8.5 games were played in the first set in 13 of them, including both this week.
- Seven of the last 12 matches Alcaraz has played in this Grand Slam saw more than 8.5 games played in the first set, including his two matches this week.
- Alcaraz has played more than 8.5 games in the first set in eight of his last ten matches.
- Only one of the last 13 matches Moutet has played saw fewer than 8.5 games played in the opening set.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz has never reached the semi-finals of this Grand Slam. He didn't play any warm-up tournaments prior to heading to Melbourne. The Spaniard is determined though to win the only Grand Slam he's yet to be champion in.
He's started well with two comfortable straight sets victories but 22 games have been played in the opening sets of those matches. Corentin Moutet has only lost one set so far this week but three more are likely here. Our Carlos Alcaraz v Corentin Moutet prediction is more than 8.5 games in the first set.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
