Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction - Premier League

Predictions Odds Live

England - Premier League

Burnley

30/12/2025 13:30

Newcastle

Prediction :

Less than 2.5 goals

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Prediction published on 28/12/2025, 13:30 by Steve Ashfield in Premier League Predictions

Burnley's battle against relegation continues with this home game against Newcastle United. The home side are six points from safety but have gone nine games without a win. Newcastle are down in ** and badly need an away win. Read our match prediction below.

The Clarets drew 0-0 at home with Everton on Saturday, a game they really needed to win. As you will read in the form section of this preview, any win would be appreciated at present. Their last victory came five days before Halloween at bottom-of-the-table Wolves. The gap between them and safety is six points so if they could find some form, survival is still a possibility for them.

Newcastle United lost at Manchester United on Boxing Day. They remain in the bottom half of the Premier League and that's mainly because of their frustrating away form that just isn't coming up with the goods. They will see this game as a great chance to earn three points.

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The Best Betting Odds for Burnley v Newcastle Match

1	X	2
5.5	4	1.62
5.5	4	1.67
5	4	1.62
5.1	4.2	1.62
5	4.2	1.62

Check all Burnley vs Newcastle odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Newcastle?

Our prediction for the Burnley vs Newcastle match is: under 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/12/2025 between Burnley and Newcastle in Premier League :

The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.69% for a win of Burnley against Newcastle with odds of 5.5 at Bet365.
The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Newcastle is 17.99% with odds of 4.22 at 888Starz.
Our prediction model gives a 53.32% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Burnley with odds of 1.68 at 888Starz.

Burnley vs Newcastle Form

Burnley and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League

Teams	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
14 Newcastle	23	18	6	5	7	0
19 Burnley	12	18	3	3	12	-15

Burnley and Newcastle Last Matches

Burnley Last matches

All Home Away

L L L L D D

Wins

0/6 (0%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals

67% BTTS

0.83 Goals scored

1.67 Goals conceded

50% Over 2.5

50% Under 2.5

27 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

0 : 0

Everton

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth

1 : 1

Burnley

13 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

2 : 3

Fulham

6 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 1

Burnley

3 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

0 : 1

Crystal Palace

29 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Brentford

3 : 1

Burnley

W L L L L D

Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals

17% BTTS

0.67 Goals scored

1.33 Goals conceded

17% Over 2.5

83% Under 2.5

27 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

0 : 0

Everton

13 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

2 : 3

Fulham

3 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

0 : 1

Crystal Palace

22 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

0 : 2

Chelsea

1 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

0 : 2

Arsenal

18 Oct 2025 - Premier League

Burnley

2 : 0

Leeds

L W L L L D

Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals

100% BTTS

1.5 Goals scored

2.17 Goals conceded

83% Over 2.5

17% Under 2.5

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth

1 : 1

Burnley

6 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 1

Burnley

29 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Brentford

3 : 1

Burnley

8 Nov 2025 - Premier League

West Ham

3 : 2

Burnley

26 Oct 2025 - Premier League

Wolves

2 : 3

Burnley

5 Oct 2025 - Premier League

Aston Villa

2 : 1

Burnley

Newcastle Last matches

All Home Away

W D L W D L

Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals

67% BTTS

1.33 Goals scored

1.33 Goals conceded

67% Over 2.5

33% Under 2.5

26 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United

1 : 0

Newcastle

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 2

Chelsea

17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle

2 : 1

Fulham

14 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland

1 : 0

Newcastle

10 Dec 2025 - Champions League

Bayer Leverkusen

2 : 2

Newcastle

6 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 1

Burnley

W W D W W D

Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals

83% BTTS

2 Goals scored

1.17 Goals conceded

83% Over 2.5

17% Under 2.5

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 2

Chelsea

17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle

2 : 1

Fulham

6 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 1

Burnley

2 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 2

Tottenham

22 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 1

Manchester City

5 Nov 2025 - Champions League

Newcastle

2 : 0

Athletic Bilbao

L L W D L L

Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals

67% BTTS

1.33 Goals scored

1.67 Goals conceded

67% Over 2.5

33% Under 2.5

26 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United

1 : 0

Newcastle

14 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland

1 : 0

Newcastle

10 Dec 2025 - Champions League

Bayer Leverkusen

2 : 2

Newcastle

29 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Everton

1 : 4

Newcastle

25 Nov 2025 - Champions League

Marseille

2 : 1

Newcastle

9 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Brentford

3 : 1

Newcastle

Burnley vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Burnley

0 %

Draw

17 %

Newcastle

83 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.33

Total goals

50%

BTTS

0.5

Goals scored (home team)

1.83

Goals scored (away team)

50%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

6 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 1

Burnley

4 May 2024 - Premier League

Burnley

1 : 4

Newcastle

30 Sept 2023 - Premier League

Newcastle

2 : 0

Burnley

22 May 2022 - Premier League

Burnley

1 : 2

Newcastle

4 Dec 2021 - Premier League

Newcastle

1 : 0

Burnley

25 Aug 2021 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle

0 : 0

Burnley

Burnley - Newcastle: Form Analysis

Burnley have gone nine league games without a win. Their last two Premier League fixtures have ended in a draw, away at Bournemouth and last Saturday at home to Everton. Those are the only two points the Clarets have earned in their last nine league matches.

Burnley are struggling to score goals.

Home form has only produced two wins this season. Just seven goals have been scored in their nine home league games. That's the joint lowest total in the Premier League with woeful Wolves.

The goalless draw with Everton at least ended a run of five straight home league defeats. Only in one of their last five at Turf Moor have they managed to score a goal. All but one of their home league fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals scored.

Newcastle United have won their last five games against Burnley. They could do with making that six after a run of just one win in five league fixtures. Away form has been a big problem in the Premier League this season with only six points earned from nine games and just seven goals scored.

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Burnley vs Newcastle last Lineups

Burnley

Formation : 3 - 4 - 3

M. Dubravka

J. Laurent

B. Humphreys

H. Ekdal

K. Walker

L. Ugochukwu

J. Cullen

L. Pires

M. Edwards

A. Broja

J. Bruun Larsen

A. Gordon

N. Woltemade

J. Murphy

J. Ramsey

S. Tonali

B. Guimaraes

L. Hall

F. Schar

M. Thiaw

L. Miley

A. Ramsdale

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Newcastle

Missing players

Burnley

Defender

C. Roberts

L. Beyer

A. Tuanzebe

Midfielder

H. Mejbri

Forward

Z. Amdouni

L. Foster

Newcastle

Goalkeeper

N. Pope

Defender

K. Trippier

S. Botman

E. Krafth

D. Burn

J. Lascelles

T. Livramento

Forward

W. Osula

Burnley & Newcastle Squad Analysis

It's a busy festive schedule so there could well be some squad rotation being used for this Premier League game. Newcastle have a slight advantage over their opponents as their last league game was played on Boxing Day rather than Saturday in Burnley's case.

United really need to get a win from this game at Turf Moor. Far too many points are being dropped by the Magpies when playing away from home. They have several defenders out injured but may still prosper up against a goal-shy Burnley.

Captain Cullen is out injured.

The home side are even more desperate for points with no win since October. The Clarets suffered a major blow at the weekend when their captain Josh Cullen went off with an injury. He is not going to be playing against Newcastle and Burnley will really miss him.

Also absent will be Lyle Foster and Axel Tuanzebe who are both on international duty.

Most goals and assists

Burnley

Newcastle

Top Goalscorer

Z. Flemming (6 Goals)

Top Goalscorer

N. Woltemade (9 Goals)

Best assists

Q. Hartman (4 Assists)

Best assists

B. Guimaraes (4 Assists) ,

S. Tonali (4 Assists)

Burnley and Newcastle Stats in Premier League

Burnley

Newcastle

17%

Wins

33%

17%

Draw

28%

67%

Losses

39%

2.94

Total goals per match

2.56

1.06

Goals scored per match

1.28

1.89

Goals conceded per match

1.28

50%

Over 2.5

61%

50%

Under 2.5

39%

56%

BTTS

61%

17%

Clean Sheet

28%

Burnley - Newcastle Key Points

Eight of Burnley's nine home league games this season have seen under 2.5 goals scored in them.
Burnley have only scored seven home league games this season and Newcastle the same number in away fixtures.
Only two goals have been scored in the last couple of Newcastle away league matches - one an own goal.
Newcastle have only scored seven games in nine away league matches, four coming in one game at Everton.

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Our Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction

Both clubs would love to win this Premier League fixture. Burnley have been struggling to avoid an immediate return to the Championship ever all season. A lack of goals is hindering their progress, especially at Turf Moor.

Newcastle continue to be inconsistent with just six league wins this season. They may well need to win a cup to be in European competition next season. Aside from a 4-1 win at Everton, it's been a struggle to score on the road. Our main Burnley v Newcastle prediction is under 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

Less than 2.5 goals

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Burnley vs Newcastle - Other Interesting Predictions

Newcastle wins

Odds 1.65

This is the kind of game Newcastle simply has to win if they want to get back into European contention. If they could recapture the form that saw them win 4-1 at Everton, that could well be enough against a Burnley side that has already lost 12 league games this season.

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Burnley vs Newcastle - FAQs

Burnley’s home game against Newcastle United is being played on Tuesday December 30. It’s due to kick-off at 19:30 UK time.

Burnley are playing this game at home. It will be played at Turf Moor where they have won twice in the Premier League this season.

Sky Sports will be broadcasting this game live and a subscription is required. Pay a visit to our Premier League livescore to read live text commentary on the game and helpful continually updated statistics.

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.