Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Borussia Dortmund were quarter-finalists in last season's Champions League. This time around, the Prussians are in the knockout play-off round and host Atlanta in the first leg. Can they secure a good lead to take to Italy? Read our match prediction.
Dortmund finished 17th in the league phase so are an unseeded team in this play-off round. They missed out on being seeded by just a point after losing to Inter in their final league phase fixture. The Black and Yellow are currently second in the German Bundesliga and are unbeaten since their loss to Inter.
Atlanta are the seeded side here and the Black and Blues ended the league phase in 15th place, a couple of points ahead of Dortmund. They are sixth in Serie A but have won their last two league fixtures. Atlanta will want to avoid being knocked out of the ECL at this stage for a second successive year. Their best ever Champions League run came in the 2019/20 season when they reached the quarter-finals.
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Borussia Dortmund v Atalanta Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.55 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.09 | 3.48 | 3.46 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
|
|
2.16 | 3.35 | 3.45 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta?
Our prediction for the Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta match is: Borussia Dortmund wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/02/2026 between Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 47.31% for a win of Borussia Dortmund against Atalanta with odds of 2.17 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta is 20.41% with odds of 3.63 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.28% chance ⭐ for a win of Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund with odds of 3.7 at Bet365.
Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta Prediction and Best Odds:
| Borussia Dortmund Atalanta Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 47.31% | 2.17 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 54.21% | 2.06 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score: No | 64.58% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Borussia Dortmund | 18.06% | 5.25 at LSbet |
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Form
Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
9 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
10 Jan 2026 - Serie A
3 Jan 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
21 Dec 2025 - Serie A
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Feb 2018 - Europa League
15 Feb 2018 - Europa League
Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta: Form Analysis
Borussia Dortmund lost their last home Champions League game to Inter. That came after a 2-2 draw with Bodo/Glimt but the Prussians had been in great form in Europe before that. Atletico Bilbao had been beaten 4-1 and Villarreal 4-0.
Dortmund are in good form on home soil.
Dortmund were in good scoring form again at the weekend as they beat Mainz 4-0 at home in the German Bundesliga. That took their home league form to nine wins and two draws. They are the only side in the Bundesliga yet to lose a home game so it shows what a good result Inter got here.
Atlanta also won at the weekend with a 2-0 victory at Lazio. They are sixth in Serie A but four points behind the final Champions League qualification place. On the road in this season's competition, the Orobics have won at Marseille and Frankfurt but lost 4-0 at PSG and 1-0 at USG.
They have won four away games in Serie A this season but lost three times.
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Borussia Dortmund against Atalanta Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
S. Ostrzinski
A. Meyer
DefenderY. Couto
E. Benkara
A. Kabar
MidfielderK. Adeyemi
C. Chukwuemeka
D. Krevsun
M. Sabitzer
S. Ozcan
ForwardS. Inacio
F. Silva
F. Rossi
M. Sportiello
DefenderM. Bakker
I. Hien
G. Scalvini
H. Ahanor
R. Bellanova
L. Samardzic
Y. Musah
ForwardK. Sulemana
D. Vavassori
N. Krstovic
Missing players
N. Sule
N. Schlotterbeck
F. Mane
MidfielderE. Can
Borussia Dortmund & Atalanta Squad Analysis
Defender Nico Schlotterbeck is available again for Borussia Dortmund. He was suspended for the weekend victory over Manz. That was a domestic suspension but Daniel Svensson is back too. His suspension was for the Champions League so he didn't play in their home loss to Inter.
They wlll still be missing their captain Emre Can who is yet to recover from his groin problem. Better news is that there are no concerns over the fitness of influential Julian Ryerson. He's so important at set pieces and made four assists against Mainz.
Guirassy is in top form.
Serhou Guirassy scored twice in that game and he will be vital for Dortmund in this game.
Charles De Ketelaere will miss this game for Atlanta. His absence will be a big blow for the visitors as he was in great form in the league phase. 20 chances were created by the Belgian, leading to six goals.
New to their squad is Italian international Giacomo Raspadori. The forward was signed during the January transfer window.
Most goals and assists
Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta
S. Guirassy
(4 Goals)
L. Samardzic
(4 Goals)
S. Guirassy
(3 Assists)
C. De Ketelaere
(2 Assists)
, 
M. De Roon
(2 Assists)
Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta Key Points
- Borussia Dortmund have only lost two of their last 21 home Champions League games.
- Borussia Dortmund are the only team in the German Bundesliga this season with an unbeaten home record.
- Atlanta lost twice on the road in the league phase.
- Borussia Dortmund won their last home game 4-0.
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Our Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Prediction
Ten goals have already been scored at home by Borussia Dortmund in this season's Champions League. A loss to Inter cost them a place in the seeded positions in this knockout play-off round. Their only other home loss in recent ECL seasons has been inflicted by Barcelona.
Dortmund will be wanting a good lead to take to Italy for the return leg. Atlanta aren't quite Inter but they will put up a good show here. They have already lost a couple of away games in the league phase and our main Borussia Dortmund v Atlanta prediction is Borussia Dortmund wins.
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Alternative Predictions
Both teams to score in the second half
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Borussia Dortmund Atalanta
| Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 2.11 | 2.17 | +2.8% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.63 | -3.2% |
| Atalanta wins | 3.64 | 3.7 | +1.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Borussia Dortmund is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 47.4% and is now 46.1% (-1.3%)
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
