Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Will the reign of PSG as European champions come to an end on Wednesday evening? They have a one-goal lead after the first leg but now have to travel to Germany to take on Bayern Munich. After a thrilling exhibition of football that saw nine goals scored in Paris last week, no one is expecting a dull, low-scoring second leg. Can the Bavarians claw back the one goal-deficit? Read our match prediction below.
Bayern were in deep trouble at one stage in the first leg as they trailed the Parisians 5-2. They fought back well with two second half goals that have left this UCL semi-final tie in the balance. Who will qualify to meet either Atletico Madrid or Arsenal in the final?
PSG will be kicking themselves for letting slip a three-goal lead in the first leg. The 2024-25 Champions League winners still managed to hold onto their lead but have had some mixed results on the road in Europe this season. That, along with Bayern's perfect six wins from six home record in this season's UCL, has us favouring the hosts in a high-scoring game.
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Bayern Munich v PSG Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.62 | 5.2 | 4.3 |
|
|
1.6 | 5.25 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.58 | 5.25 | 4.36 |
|
|
1.6 | 5.25 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.62 | 5 | 4.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Bayern Munich and PSG?
Our prediction for the Bayern Munich vs PSG match is: Bayern Munich wins and BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/05/2026 between Bayern Munich and PSG in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.24% for a win of Bayern Munich against PSG with odds of 1.65 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bayern Munich vs PSG is 11.11% with odds of 5.44 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 44.66% chance ⭐ for a win of PSG vs Bayern Munich with odds of 4.49 at 888Starz.
Bayern Munich - PSG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bayern Munich PSG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 44.66% | 4.49 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.66% | |
| Both Team To Score | 50.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: PSG/PSG | 19.29% | 7 at Bet365 |
Bayern Munich vs PSG Form
Bayern Munich and PSG Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
Bayern Munich vs PSG Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
26 Nov 2024 - Champions League
8 Mar 2023 - Champions League
14 Feb 2023 - Champions League
Bayern Munich - PSG: Form Analysis
The 5-4 loss in the first leg was only the second game that Bayern Munich have lost in this season's UCL, the other being a loss at Arsenal in the league phase. Bayern's recent matches have been full of goals and more are expected on Wednesday evening.
The one game the Reds have played since the first leg saw them held to a 3-3 home draw by Heidenheim. That made it 22 goals in their last three league and cup games and 31 in their last seven UCL fixtures.
Bayern are in great form at home in the UCL.
The 2025-26 Bundesliga champions have been unstoppable at home in this season's Champions League. All six of their games have been won with 21 goals being scored. Both teams have scored in four of those matches, most recently a 4-3 win over Real Madrid.
PSG are two games away from retaining their European title. They were also in action at the weekend, drawing at home 2-2 with Lorient to remain six points clear at the top of Ligue 1. Their away form in the UCL this season has been a mixed bag.
In the league phase, they had a stunning 7-2 win at Bayer Leverkusen and beat Barcelona 2-1. However, the Parisians also lost at Sporting and were held to a goalless draw by Athletic Bilbao.
They will look to continue their away performances in the knockout stage. They have had wins at Monaco, Chelsea and Liverpool, the last two to nil. Both teams have scored in four of their seven away UCL games this season.
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Bayern Munich against PSG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
J. Urbig
S. Ulreich
DefenderK. Min-jae
H. Ito
R. Guerreiro
A. Davies
T. Bischof
L. Karl
L. Goretzka
ForwardN. Jackson
A. Vignaud
B. Laurendon
R. Marin
DefenderI. Zabarnyi
Beraldo
L. Hernandez
L. Kang-in
D. Fernandez
S. Mayulu
G. Ramos
B. Barcola
I. Mbaye
Missing players
S. Gnabry
L. Chevalier
DefenderA. Hakimi
ForwardQ. Ndjantou
Bayern Munich & PSG Squad Analysis
Harry Kane has had a fantastic goalscoring season for Bayern Munich. However, he is not the top scorer in this season's UCL. The former Tottenham striker has scored 13 goals in this season's Champions League, but that's two behind Kylian Mbappe.
He'll be looking to close in on the Real Madrid striker and did score in the first leg. A goal on Wednesday will mean he has scored in six straight UCL fixtures. Bayern rested several players at the weekend, something they could easily afford to do as the German Bundesliga title has already been clinched.
The Bavarians are hopeful that Lennart Karl will be fit to play against PSG. Out though are Serge Gnabry and Raphael Guerreiro.
No Hakimi for PSG.
PSG also rested some players at the weekend despite still having work to do to again win Ligue 1. They will be without Achraf Hakimi who was injured in the first leg of this Champions League semi-final.
Warren Zaire-Emery is likely to come in at full back to replace Hakimi. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will create history if he can score in Munich. His goal in the first leg equaled the record of 10 UCL goals for PSG in a season held by Zlatan Ibrahimovic .
Most goals and assists
Bayern Munich
PSG
H. Kane
(14 Goals)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(10 Goals)
M. Olise
(5 Assists)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(7 Assists)
Bayern Munich - PSG Key Points
- Bayern have won all six of their home games in this season's UCL.
- Three of the last four Bayern home UCL wins saw both teams score.
- PSG have failed to win two of their away UCL games this season.
- Both teams have scored in four of PSG's seven away Champions League games this season.
- PSG have scored in six of their seven away games in this season's UCL.
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Our Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction
We look set for another all-action thriller on Wednesday evening. Bayern came from 5-2 down in the first leg to return home with only one goal to make up in this return fixture. The Bundesliga champions have won all of their home games in this season's UCL with goals galore being scored.
PSG had a shaky league phase but have been more impressive in the knockout stages. They have won their last three away UCL games but this is going to be a tough task, Our main Bayern Munich v PSG prediction is Bayern Munich wins and BTTS.
Bayern Munich vs PSG Alternative Predictions
Bayern Munich wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bayern Munich PSG
| Bayern Munich vs PSG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.66 | 1.65 | -0.6% |
| Draw | 4.6 | 5.44 | +18.3% |
| PSG wins | 3.95 | 4.49 | +13.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PSG is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 13.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 25.3% and is now 22.3% (-3.0%)
Bayern Munich vs PSG - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
