Bayern Munich vs Atalanta Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Champions League Predictions
It’s Bavarian behemoths versus Bergamo belief when Bayern Munich battle Atalanta BC in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 clash at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night. The winner of this tie between Die Roten and La Dea will meet either Real Madrid or Man City in the quarter-finals. Check out our match prediction below!
Vincent Kompany’s side already has one foot in the last eight of this season’s UCL, having come away from Italy with a commanding 6-1 victory in the first leg last week. Aside from their massive advantage, history also favours FCB, as they have now won each of their last six RO16 ties in this competition dating back to 2018-19.
The defeat at home last week marked Raffaele Palladino’s team’s joint-biggest defeat in UEFA competition and was the first time they shipped six goals in a European fixture. Indeed, it would be a historic moment if the Nerazzurri were to progress, as no team has ever overturned a five-goal deficit in the second leg of a UCL tie. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Bayern Munich v Atalanta Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.39 | 5.8 | 6.8 |
|
|
1.36 | 5.5 | 7.4 |
|
|
1.37 | 5.65 | 6.85 |
|
|
1.36 | 5.5 | 7 |
|
|
1.36 | 5.6 | 7.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Bayern Munich and Atalanta?
Our prediction for the Bayern Munich vs Atalanta match is: Bayern Munich -1 European handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/03/2026 between Bayern Munich and Atalanta in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 64.21% for a win of Bayern Munich against Atalanta with odds of 1.43 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bayern Munich vs Atalanta is 21.58% with odds of 6.25 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 14.21% chance ⭐ for a win of Atalanta vs Bayern Munich with odds of 8 at LSbet.
Bayern Munich - Atalanta Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bayern Munich Atalanta Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 64.21% | 1.43 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.78% | 1.1 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 68.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich | 38.96% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
Bayern Munich vs Atalanta Form
Bayern Munich and Atalanta Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Serie A
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Serie A
4 Mar 2026 - Coppa Italia
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Serie A
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Serie A
4 Mar 2026 - Coppa Italia
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
Bayern Munich vs Atalanta Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
Bayern Munich - Atalanta: Form Analysis
It looked like men against boys for large periods in Bergamo last week, as Bayern Munich dominated in virtually every statistical category, including possession (69%) and shots at goal (25).
However, the Bavarians had a much tougher outing against Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga at the weekend, when they ended the match with nine players and were forced to settle for a 1-1 draw.
Still, the hosts are now unbeaten in their last 10 matches across all competitions (W8 D2) and are on a four-match win streak at home, while having scored two or more goals in each of those victories.
Bayern have never lost by more than four goals in any UEFA competition!
Meanwhile, despite being starved of possession, Atalanta managed to record 11 shots on goal and three on target in the first leg, though they will know it will be much tougher this week at the Allianz.
La Dea have been in poor form of late, now winless in their last five matches across all competitions (D3 L2), following their 1-1 draw against Inter Milan in Serie A on Saturday evening.
Their away record does not inspire much confidence either, as they have failed to win any of their last four matches on the road. They also lost their last two outings in this competition and failed to score in both games.
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Bayern Munich against Atalanta Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
J. Bartl
L. Prescott
DefenderF. Pavic
H. Ito
V. Manuba
D. Ofli
D. Upamecano
MidfielderK. Laimer
ForwardN. Jackson
S. Gnabry
M. Carnesecchi
F. Rossi
DefenderM. Bakker
H. Ahanor
D. Zappacosta
B. Djimsiti
S. Kolasinac
MidfielderN. Zalewski
L. Samardzic
M. de Roon
G. Raspadori
N. Krstovic
Missing players
M. Neuer
S. Ulreich
DefenderJ. Kimmich
A. Davies
MidfielderJ. Musiala
Bayern Munich & Atalanta Squad Analysis
The biggest issue for Kompany coming into this match is his side’s goalkeeping situation. Manuel Neuer and Jonas Urbig are both injured, while Sven Ulreich sustained a muscle issue at the weekend, meaning Leonard Prescott could make his UCL debut at just 16 years old.
Harry Kane has started the last two matches on the bench, but he is expected to get the nod from the off in this one. England’s captain has eight goals in as many appearances in this competition this season.
Aside from the goalkeeping department, the hosts also have several outfield players sidelined at present, including Alphonso Davies, Hiroki Ito and Jamal Musiala, while Joshua Kimmich and Michael Olise are suspended.
Kane has scored in each of his last three UCL RO16 matches for Bayern!
Atalanta’s goals in this competition have been shared around this season, with Mario Pasalic, who scored in the first leg of this tie, Lazar Samardzic and Gianluca Scamacca on three goals apiece.
Charles De Ketelaere missed the first leg through injury, but he has been the team’s most impactful player in Europe, notching up four goal contributions (two goals, two assists) in seven appearances.
The visitors have a relatively clean bill of health, with only Giacomo Raspadori expected to sit out this match due to a knee injury, while Yunus Musah is suspended after his booking in Bergamo last week.
Most goals and assists
Bayern Munich
Atalanta
H. Kane
(14 Goals)
L. Samardzic
(4 Goals)
M. Olise
(5 Assists)
C. De Ketelaere
(2 Assists)
, 
M. de Roon
(2 Assists)
Bayern Munich - Atalanta Key Points
- Bayern Munich won the first leg of this tie by five goals.
- Bayern Munich have won six of their last seven home matches.
- Bayern Munich have scored two or more goals in 17 of their 18 home games in all competitions this season.
- Bayern Munich have won all of their home games in this competition by two or more goals.
- Atalanta failed to score in their last two away games in this competition.
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Our Bayern Munich vs Atalanta Prediction
Given how the first leg played out, it’s difficult to make much of a case for Atalanta in this match, as they need to pull off the biggest comeback in Champions League knockout history if they are to progress to the next round.
For us, that’s not going to happen, and if anything, we are expecting the Bavarians to produce an even more commanding performance on their home patch to send a message to their opponents in the last eight. Our Bayern Munich vs Atalanta prediction is Bayern Munich -1 European handicap.
Bayern Munich vs Atalanta Alternative Predictions
Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals
Bayern Munich have scored 14 goals in their last four home games across all competitions (average 3.5) and netted 12 in four home matches in the UCL this season (average 3.0).
Bayern Munich wins
Bayern Munich have only lost one of 18 home games across all competitions this season, while Atalanta lost and failed to score in their last two away UCL matches.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bayern Munich Atalanta
| Bayern Munich vs Atalanta | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.31 | 1.43 | +9.2% |
| Draw | 6.5 | 6.25 | -3.8% |
| Atalanta wins | 10 | 8 | -20.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 9.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 76.3% and is now 69.9% (-6.4%)
Bayern Munich vs Atalanta - FAQs
The Champions League Round of 16 second leg between Bayern Munich and Atalanta will take place on March 18 at 20:00 UTC.
The Champions League Round of 16 second leg between Bayern Munich and Atalanta will be played at the Allianz Arena in Munich.
The Champions League Round of 16 second leg between Bayern Munich and Atalanta will be broadcast on DAZN in Germany and Sky in Italy. UK viewers can tune in to TNT Sports.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
