Aston Villa vs Lille Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Joseph King | in Europa League Predictions
Aston Villa continue their charge for European glory when they host LOSC Lille in the return leg of the Europa League (UEL) round of 16. The Villans are the bookmakers’ favourites to lift the trophy but will Les Dogues be able to crash the party in the West Midlands? Check out our match prediction below!
Aston Villa are in a strong position to advance to the last eight after their one-goal victory in France in the first leg. If they can close out the tie, it would mark the third consecutive season in which Aston Villa advanced past the round of 16 in UEFA competitions, following their semi-final appearance at the 2023-24 Conference League and making the quarters of last year’s Champions League.
Lille, to their credit, are on their own run of UEFA knockout round qualification. The 2021 Ligue 1 champions made the Conference League quarters in 2023-24 and the round of 16 in last season’s UCL. Unfortunately for these two sides, one will be going home here. A meeting with either Roma or Bologna awaits the winner in the quarter-finals.
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Aston Villa v Lille Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.74 | 3.95 | 5 |
|
|
1.71 | 3.86 | 4.76 |
|
|
1.74 | 3.76 | 4.76 |
|
|
1.73 | 3.8 | 4.75 |
|
|
1.67 | 3.95 | 5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Lille?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Lille match is: Aston Villa wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 19/03/2026 between Aston Villa and Lille in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.62% for a win of Aston Villa against Lille with odds of 1.78 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Lille is 16.45% with odds of 4.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.93% chance ⭐ for a win of Lille vs Aston Villa with odds of 5.2 at Tonybet.
Aston Villa - Lille Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Lille Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lille wins | 41.93% | 5.2 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 55.04% | 2.03 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Lille/Lille | 17.58% | 8 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Lille Form
Aston Villa and Lille Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
27 Feb 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
27 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
6 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
Aston Villa vs Lille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
18 Apr 2024 - Conference League
11 Apr 2024 - Conference League
Aston Villa - Lille: Form Analysis
The first leg of this tie saw Aston Villa secure a 1-0 away victory thanks to an Ollie Watkins goal in the second half. It was a cagey affair overall, with both teams combining for just 0.94 xG and four total shots on target
It continued the Claret and Blue’s sublime run of results in this year’s Europa League. They’ve won eight of their nine fixtures, with the only blemish coming in a shock 2-1 away loss to GA Eagles in the third round of league fixtures.
Domestically, however, Villa is experiencing a tough stretch of form. They’ve lost their last three straight in the EPL, which has put their hopes of securing Champions League football for next season in jeopardy.
Winning the Europa League is potentially Aston Villa’s best route to the 2026-27 UCL.
Lille have been an unpredictable team in this year’s UEL. They finished 18th in the league phase (W4, L4) and required a second leg away win to defeat Red Star 2-1 on aggregate in the knockout round playoff.
Les Dogues will come into this match in a solid vein of form though, after an impressive 2-1 away win over Rennes on Sunday. They’ve now lost only once in their last six appearances and took a big step towards securing European football after moving up to fifth in Ligue 1.
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Aston Villa against Lille Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
J. Wright
M. Bizot
DefenderE. Konsa
M. Cash
L. Digne
T. Mings
MidfielderH. Elliott
A. Garcia
E. Buendia
L. Bailey
O. Watkins
A. Bodart
Z. Lanssade
DefenderT. Santos
C. Verdonk
A. Mandi
S. Boussadia
H. Haraldsson
L. Baret
ForwardM. Fernandez
S. Diaoune
N. Edjouma
Missing players
K. Nedeljkovic
MidfielderY. Tielemans
B. Kamara
M. Caillard
DefenderO. Toure
MidfielderB. Andre
G. Perrin
O. Sahraoui
E. Mbappe
ForwardH. Igamane
Aston Villa & Lille Squad Analysis
Aston Villa boss Unai Emery could be without four players for this second leg clash. Emi Buendia came off late in the second half in the 3-1 loss to Man United and is considered a doubt for this one.
There’s also the long-term injuries to Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara, who each went down in January and are each still facing some time on the sidelines. The Lions will be hoping to have Matty Cash’s enterprising runs from right back as a weapon, but the Poland international is a doubt after missing the last two games.
Morgan Rogers has failed to produce a goal or assist in his last seven consecutive outings.
It’s no coincidence that Villa’s form has dipped during that time. The 23-year-old will be looking forward to the World Cup with England in the summer, but his club side really need him to click back in gear if they are to finish the season strong.
As for Lille, manager Bruno Genesio has six players in the infirmary, including Hamza Igamane, Ethan Mbappe, and Osame Sahraoui.
One of the team’s most reliable players and club captain, Benjamin Andre, is also flagged as a doubt for this clash with a hip injury. His presence would be sorely missed in the middle for Les Nordistes.
We’ll almost certainly see more of former Arsenal and Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud, who is Lille's co-leading scorer in this competition with four goals.
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Lille
J. McGinn
(5 Goals)
, 
O. Watkins
(5 Goals)
O. Giroud
(4 Goals)
, 
H. Igamane
(4 Goals)
M. Rogers
(5 Assists)
, 
E. Buendia
(5 Assists)
F. Correia
(2 Assists)
, 
T. Meunier
(2 Assists)
, 
H. Haraldsson
(2 Assists)
Aston Villa - Lille Key Points
- Aston Villa have won eight of their nine matches in the UEL this season.
- Aston Villa won the first leg fixture 1-0 away from home.
- Villa have the second best defensive record in this competition, allowing just 6 goals and keeping 5 clean sheets in nine matches.
- Lille have lost five of their nine UEL matches this season.
- Lille created just 0.43 xG and managed only 9 touches in the opposition box at home in the first leg.
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Our Aston Villa vs Lille Prediction
Aston Villa were really able to nullify Lille’s attack in the first leg, and the French side will likely find it tough to create many clear-cut opportunities in the West Midlands. Despite a downturn in recent form, the hosts have overall been very good on home soil throughout the season, winning nine of 15 in the EPL and four of four in the Europa League.
Villa Park will be rocking on Thursday night, and we expect Emery’s side to take care of business and secure the victory. Our Aston Villa vs Lille prediction: Aston Villa wins.
Aston Villa vs Lille Alternative Predictions
Less than 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals has come through in 10 of Lille’s last 11 across all competitions and six of Villa's last nine. These two combined for only 0.94 xG in the first leg. Heading back home with a slim aggregate lead, we're expecting a resolute Aston Villa side that will be hard to break down.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Lille
| Aston Villa vs Lille | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 1.68 | 1.78 | +6.0% |
| Draw | 4 | 4.1 | +2.5% |
| Lille wins | 4.9 | 5.2 | +6.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 20.4% and is now 19.2% (-1.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
