Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Prediction & Betting Tips - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
WTA Madrid champion Aryna Sabalenka will get her title defense underway against Peyton Stearns in the second round. The two will be facing off for the third time in a fixture dominated by Sabalenka. Below is our prediction for this match.
No player has won this title more than Sabalenka in the post-covid years. The top seed has won three titles in Madrid in the last five seasons.
After her first-round bye, she makes her 2026 clay debut, hoping for another powerful showing in Spain. Her latest moment on clay ended in heartbreak as she lost to Cori Gauff in Roland Garros.
Fittingly, her latest outing was in Miami, where she beat Gauff in the final, and she comes here unbeaten in 12 matches. She’s only lost once this season.
Stearns wouldn’t have wished for a tougher draw on her third appearance in Madrid. She has already suffered two career defeats against Sabalenka, and one of them was at this event last year.
That was in the fourth round, marking her best run in Madrid. Though she has compiled a 13-9 record so far, this doesn’t look like a bad year for the American.
She recently won her second main tour title after beating Taylor Townsend in the Austin final. Stearns is, however, still grappling with early defeats at her events, having failed to go past the second round in six of nine events. She sits 48th in the live rankings.
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Aryna Sabalenka v Peyton Stearns Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.03 | 13 |
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1.02 | 14 |
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1.04 | 13 |
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1.03 | 9.4 |
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1.03 | 9.4 |
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Who will win the Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns match is: exact score: 2-1.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns game on 23/04/2026 of the current WTA Mutua Madrid Open season:
- Aryna Sabalenka has a 81.98% chance to win against Peyton Stearns according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.04.
- Peyton Stearns has a 18.02% probability of winning facing Aryna Sabalenka ⭐ with odds of 14 at Betwinner.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Aryna Sabalenka has a 81.98 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 81.98 % |
| Peyton Stearns | 18.02 % |
Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
28 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
26 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
25 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
23 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
22 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
20 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
21 Apr 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
2 Apr 2026 - WTA Charleston Open
1 Apr 2026 - WTA Charleston Open
20 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
19 Mar 2026 - WTA Miami
5 Mar 2026 - WTA Indian Wells
Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
29 Apr 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
9 Mar 2024 - WTA Indian Wells
Aryna Sabalenka - Peyton Stearns Key Points
- Sabalenka has won each of her last 12 matches.
- One of the two meetings between these two needed a third set.
- Sabalenka dropped at least a set in four of her last 10 matches on clay.
- Stearns failed to win a set just twice in her last 10 matches.
- Seven times in her last 13 matches in Madrid, Sabalenka dropped a set or more.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka is having a great campaign once again and comes here having only lost once in her 24 matches this season. The Belarusian has a 25-4 record in Madrid. This season she has only lost one of her 24 matches, and in that run she hasn’t dropped many sets but did so in her last two matches on clay.
Sabalenka hasn’t had it all smooth in Madrid either, losing a set or more in seven of 13 matches. Stearns will look to take advantage of that. Our prediction for Aryna Sabalenka v Peyton Stearns is for the exact score: 2-1.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Aryna Sabalenka vs. Peyton Stearns game!
When you place a bet on the match between Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Aryna Sabalenka or Peyton Stearns, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
