Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Prediction & Betting Tips - WTA Indian Wells

Prediction published on 09/03/2026, 23:42  by Daniel Ngulu | Modified on 10/03/2026 at 15:35 in Tennis Predictions

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka continues with her quest for a first Indian Wells title and will play former champion Naomi Osaka next. In their first competitive match since 2018, the two will face off in the fourth round. Below is our prediction for this match.

Sabalenka has finished as runner-up twice at the BNP Paribas Open, most recently in last year’s edition. The world number one, who has been in splendid form, will be eager to finally get her hands on the coveted trophy in California.

Sabalenka returned to the tour last week after losing in the Australian Open final yet again. She had won her first 12 matches of the season before the loss in Melbourne to Elena Rybakina.

Now with a 13-1 record, Sabalenka defeated Jaqueline Cristian by the loss of five games in the last round.

Naomi Osaka outlasted Camila Osorio to set up this showdown with Sabalenka. The former world number one won in three sets to improve to a 5-1 record to start the season.

Osaka, champion at Indian Wells in 2018, won against Sabalenka in their only other encounter. This was at the US Open in that same year she was crowned Indian Wells champion.

Times have changed since, and it is she who is coming into their latest showdown as the underdog. Advancing to this round has seen the 28-year-old move up one place to 15th in the live ranking.