Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League

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Europe - Champions League

Arsenal
15/04/2026 15:00
Sporting Lisbon

Prediction :

 

Half-time/Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal

 
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 by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions

Arsenal are in a strong position to qualify for a second successive Champions League semi-final. The Gunners go into this quarter-final second leg at the Emirates with a 1-0 lead from last week's match in Portugal. Read our match prediction below.

The weekend saw Arsenal lose at home to Bournemouth in the English Premier League. They have been struggling in recent weeks but the only win they have managed to achieve was the first leg of this quarter-final tie. They won all eight of their games in the league phase and have a strong home record in Europe. They will be fully focused on ensuring they reach the last four.

Sporting will have wanted a lead to take to the Emirates. That was not to be for the Lions and they need to win this match over 90 minutes to retain their hopes of making it into the semi-finals. They did win at Arsenal in the Europa League three years ago, can they repeat that on Wednesday?

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Arsenal v Sporting Lisbon Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
1.56 4.3 6
Melbet
1.52 4.24 6.25
Betwinner
1.53 4.24 6.1
Bet365
1.5 4.5 6
Roobet
1.52 4.3 6
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What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Sporting Lisbon?

Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon match is: Arsenal wins and leads at half and full time.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/04/2026 between Arsenal and Sporting Lisbon in Champions League :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39% for a win of Arsenal against Sporting Lisbon with odds of 1.58 at 888Starz.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon is 24.33% with odds of 4.5 at Bet365.
  • Our prediction model gives a 36.67% chance ⭐ for a win of Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal with odds of 6.35 at 888Starz.

Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:

Arsenal Sporting Lisbon Prediction Probability Odds
Arsenal wins 39% 1.58 at 888Starz
Over 2.5 goals 54.22% 1.91 at Bet365
Both Team To Score: No 55%
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Arsenal 20.99% 4.7 at LSbet

Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Form

Arsenal and Sporting Lisbon Last Matches

Arsenal
Arsenal Last matches
W W L L W L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

11 Apr 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  2
Bournemouth

7 Apr 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup

Southampton
2 :  1
Arsenal

22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup

Arsenal
0 :  2
Manchester City

17 Mar 2026 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Bayer Leverkusen

14 Mar 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Everton
W W W W L L
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

11 Apr 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  2
Bournemouth

22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup

Arsenal
0 :  2
Manchester City

17 Mar 2026 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Bayer Leverkusen

14 Mar 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Everton

1 Mar 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup

Arsenal
4 :  0
Wigan
W W W D L W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

7 Apr 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup

Southampton
2 :  1
Arsenal

11 Mar 2026 - Champions League

Bayer Leverkusen
1 :  1
Arsenal

7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup

Mansfield Town
1 :  2
Arsenal

4 Mar 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
0 :  1
Arsenal

22 Feb 2026 - Premier League

Tottenham
1 :  4
Arsenal
Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon Last matches
L W W W L W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

11 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora
0 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

7 Apr 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

3 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
4 :  2
Santa Clara

22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal

FC Alverca SAD
1 :  4
Sporting Lisbon

17 Mar 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
5 :  0
Bodoe/Glimt

11 Mar 2026 - Champions League

Bodoe/Glimt
3 :  0
Sporting Lisbon
W W W W W L
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
17% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
0.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

7 Apr 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

3 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
4 :  2
Santa Clara

17 Mar 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
5 :  0
Bodoe/Glimt

3 Mar 2026 - Taca de Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  0
Porto

27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
3 :  0
Estoril

15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  0
Famalicao
D W D L W W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

11 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora
0 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal

FC Alverca SAD
1 :  4
Sporting Lisbon

11 Mar 2026 - Champions League

Bodoe/Glimt
3 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

7 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal

SC Braga
2 :  2
Sporting Lisbon

21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal

Moreirense
0 :  3
Sporting Lisbon

9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal

Porto
1 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Arsenal

50 %

Draw

50 %

Sporting Lisbon

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.33
Total goals
50%
BTTS
1.67
Goals scored
0.67
Goals conceded
33.33%
Over 2.5
66.67%
Under 2.5

7 Apr 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

26 Nov 2024 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  5
Arsenal

16 Mar 2023 - Europa League

Arsenal
1 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

9 Mar 2023 - Europa League

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  2
Arsenal

8 Nov 2018 - Europa League

Arsenal
0 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

25 Oct 2018 - Europa League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon: Form Analysis

Arsenal have won all five of their home games in this season's Champions League. In the league phase, the Gunners beat Olympiacos, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Kairat with 12 goals scored. 

Arsenal are unbeaten in this season's UCL.

In the last 16, their 100 percent record in this season's UCL ended when they drew at Bayer Leverkusen. They won the home leg 2-0 to progress into this quarter-final and then won 1-0 in Portugal last Wednesday.

The weekend saw them beaten at home by Bournemouth, their third loss in four games but still lead the Premier League. They had won seven consecutive home fixtures before that loss to the Cherries. Only one of their last 23 home European games has been lost, a semi-final defeat to PSG last season.

Sporting are second in the Primeira League, five points behind Porto but with a game in hand. They beat Estrella 1-0 on Saturday.  The loss to Arsenal is the only one of their last five games they have not won.

In the league phase, the Green and Whites only won one of their four away games. They were beaten at both Napoli and Bayern Munich. Another away loss came in the last 16 as they were beaten 3-0 at Bodo/Glimt.

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Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction

Arsenal against Sporting Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11

Arsenal

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
D. Raya
3
C. Mosquera
2
W. Saliba
6
G. Magalhaes
5
P. Hincapie
36
M. Zubimendi
41
D. Rice
20
N. Madueke
10
E. Eze
11
G. Martinelli
14
V. Gyokeres
97
L. Suarez
8
P. Goncalves
17
F. Trincao
10
G. Catamo
5
H. Morita
42
M. Hjulmand
20
M. Araujo
25
G. Inacio
26
O. Diomande
72
Quaresma
1
R. Silva

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Sporting Lisbon

Substitutes

Arsenal
Arsenal
Goalkeeper

T. Setford

K. Arrizabalaga

Defender

M. Salmon

B. White

Midfielder

H. Dudziak

M. Lewis-Skelly

M. Dowman

C. Norgaard

Forward

L. Trossard

G. Jesus

K. Havertz

Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon
Goalkeeper

J. Virginia

Defender

G. Vagiannidis

Quaresma 85'

Z. Debast

R. Mangas

Midfielder

J. Simoes

H. Morita 77'

S. Blopa

D. Braganca

P. Goncalves 71'

G. Kochorashvili

Forward

S. Faye

R. Nel

F. Trincao 85'

G. Quenda

G. Catamo 71'

F. Goncalves

Missing players

Arsenal
Arsenal
Defender

J. Timber

R. Calafiori

Midfielder

M. Odegaard

M. Merino

Forward

B. Saka

Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon
Midfielder

Luis Guilherme

Forward

N. Santos

F. Ioannidis

Arsenal & Sporting Lisbon Squad Analysis

It's a massive week for Arsenal with the vital trip to Mahchester City in the Premier League on the horizon. They lead 1-0 from the first leg but that is their only victory in the last four games they have played.

They would have perhaps preferred to have a larger lead so they could consider resting some players for the City game. That isn't possible but they will want to stretch their lead in the tie as soon as possible to allow them to do so.

The Gunners have injury doubts over several players, including Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard. Eberechi Eze and Piero Hincapie are fit again and may well feature in this second leg. Leandro Trossard is another possible starter as Arsenal look to freshen up their team.

Sporting need to improve their away form.

Sporting are in trouble in this tie because their away form in Europe is not at all impressive this season. The Lions have already lost three games this term in Europe and it is going to be a tough task for them to get back into this tie. Conceding the first goal on Wednesday is not an option for them.

Morten Hjulmand is available again for Sporting after missing the first leg through suspension. Neither Luis Guilherme or Fotis Ioannidis are going to be playing for Sporting on Wednesday.. Luis Suarez isn't suspeneded as was first thought and he will look to be on target for Sporting.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Arsenal
CD Huachipato Sporting Lisbon
Top Goalscorer
Brazil G. Martinelli (6 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Colombia L. Suarez (5 Goals)
Best assists
Belgium L. Trossard (5 Assists)
Best assists
Portugal F. Trincao (3 Assists)

Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon Key Points

  1. Arsenal lead 1-0 from the away leg.
  2. Arsenal have won all five of their home games in this season's UCL.
  3. Only PSG have beaten Arsenal in their last 23 home European games.
  4. Sporting have lost three away games in the Champions League this season, twice conceding three goals.
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Our Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction

Arsenal have impressive home form in this season's UCL with all five of their fixtures being won. They lead 1-0 from the first leg but will want to repeat the loss they suffered to Sporting in the Europa League three seasons ago.

Sporting have a lot of work to do to get back into this tie. Their progress to the last eight has mainly been achieved by their home form with three losses already on the road. Our main Arsenal v Sporting prediction is Arsenal wins and leads at half and full time.

Prediction :

 

Half-time/Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal

 
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Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Alternative Predictions

Arsenal wins

Odds 1.5
Arsenal have a 100 percent home record in this season's UCL.
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Sporting Lisbon

Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Arsenal wins 1.46 1.58 +8.2%
Draw 5.16 4.5 -12.8%
Sporting Lisbon wins 7.43 6.35 -14.5%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Arsenal is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 8.2% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 68.5% and is now 63.3% (-5.2%)

Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon - FAQs

This Champions League quarter-final second leg takes place on Wednesday April 15, starting at 20:00 UK time.
Sporting will need to travel to the Emirates in London to play Arsenal on Wednesday.
Subscription channel TNT Sports will be the UK broadcasters for this match. Go to our Champions League livescore for help with your in-play bets thanks to live text commentary and updated statistics.

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.