Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Joseph King in Premier League Predictions
Second-place Arsenal welcome seventh-placed Aston Villa to the Emirates to contest matchday 22 of the English Premier League in this Saturday evening kickoff time. Eager to see whether the Gunners or the Villans will emerge victorious? We’ve got the full match prediction below!
Arsenal will come into this match in high spirits after earning a hard-fought North London derby victory over bitter rivals Tottenham in midweek. It keeps them just barely in the title race as they now trail leaders Liverpool by four points although Arsenal have played an extra game. This is the fourth of five straight home matches across all competitions for the Londoners.
This will be ex-Arsenal manager Unai Emery’s second trip to the Emirates since being sacked by the club after 18 months in charge. Neither side should feel too much bad blood though, as both have been thriving in recent seasons. Aston Villa qualified for the Champions League last season with a fourth-place finish but currently find themselves trailing the top four by three points.
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The Best Betting Odds for Arsenal v Aston Villa Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.53 | 4.1 | 6.25 |
|
|
1.57 | 4.2 | 6 |
|
|
1.55 | 4 | 6 |
|
|
1.54 | 4 | 6.4 |
|
|
1.55 | 4 | 6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Aston Villa match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/01/2025 between Arsenal and Aston Villa in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 56.24% for a win of Arsenal against Aston Villa with odds of 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Aston Villa is 18.39% with odds of 4.3 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.37% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Arsenal with odds of 6.4 at Unibet.
Arsenal - Aston Villa Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Aston Villa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 56.24% | 1.91 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.59% | 1.94 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 48.75% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Arsenal | 24.52% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Form
Arsenal and Aston Villa's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
74 | 38 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 35 |
|
6
|
66 | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
Arsenal and Aston Villa Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jan 2025 - Premier League
12 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2025 - Carabao Cup
4 Jan 2025 - Premier League
1 Jan 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2024 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jan 2025 - Premier League
12 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2025 - Carabao Cup
27 Dec 2024 - Premier League
18 Dec 2024 - Carabao Cup
14 Dec 2024 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2025 - Premier League
1 Jan 2025 - Premier League
21 Dec 2024 - Premier League
8 Dec 2024 - Premier League
30 Nov 2024 - Premier League
26 Nov 2024 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jan 2025 - Premier League
10 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2025 - Premier League
30 Dec 2024 - Premier League
26 Dec 2024 - Premier League
21 Dec 2024 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2025 - Premier League
30 Dec 2024 - Premier League
21 Dec 2024 - Premier League
7 Dec 2024 - Premier League
4 Dec 2024 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jan 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2024 - Premier League
14 Dec 2024 - Premier League
10 Dec 2024 - Champions League
1 Dec 2024 - Premier League
9 Nov 2024 - Premier League
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Aug 2024 - Premier League
14 Apr 2024 - Premier League
9 Dec 2023 - Premier League
18 Feb 2023 - Premier League
31 Aug 2022 - Premier League
19 Mar 2022 - Premier League
Arsenal - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
Arsenal fans will surely be breathing a sigh of relief after their team came from behind to secure a 2-1 home win over Tottenham on Wednesday. With the club having been on a three-match winless run before the meeting (D2, L1), points dropped against their rivals would have been a tough blow to morale
However, as things stand, Arsenal are back to winning ways. They improved their home record in the Premier League to seven wins, three draws and zero defeats and have opened up a six-point lead for a top four spot.
Arsenal have the league’s best defensive record with 19 goals allowed.
This is despite conceding in their last five straight matches across all competitions. Arsenal’s five clean sheets and seven goals allowed on home soil are both tied for the best mark in the Premier League as well.
Trying to balance Champions League football and the Premier League is never an easy task but Aston Villa has performed well so far. The visitors have posted a 4-1-1 record in Europe’s most prestigious club competition and are well-poised to qualify for the round of 16.
The Villans are starting to pick up steam as a 1-0 away win over Everton on Wednesday was their third in a row across all competitions and their second straight in the league. It also marked the first clean sheet that Villa had kept in their last eight matches.
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Players list
D. Raya
DefenderJ. Timber
G. Magalhaes
MidfielderT. Partey
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Odegaard
D. Rice
M. Merino
L. Trossard
ForwardR. Sterling
K. Havertz
E. Martinez
DefenderM. Cash
E. Konsa
T. Mings
L. Digne
MidfielderB. Kamara
L. Bogarde
Y. Tielemans
L. Bailey
ForwardM. Rogers
J. Duran
Substitutes
Neto
DefenderO. Zinchenko
K. Tierney
J. Kiwior
M. Kacurri
MidfielderJorginho
N. Butler-Oyedeji
ForwardI. Kabia
R. Sterling
R. Olsen
J. Gauci
DefenderK. Nedeljkovic
L. Digne
E. Buendia
L. Bogarde
J. Duran
D. Malen
L. Bailey
Missing players
B. Saka
G. Jesus
R. Barkley
Arsenal & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
Arsenal’s injury crisis continues with the team missing a number of important players. The biggest name among them is Bukayo Saka who is still at least a month away from returning after injuring his hamstring against Crystal Palace on 21 December.
A season ending ACL tear for striker Gabriel Jesus last weekend further exasperated the Gunners’ need for a new striker. Kai Havertz has been leading the line for Arsenal for most of the season but the German tends to blow hot and cold.
Arsenal fans will be excited at the possibility of Leipzig’s Benjamin Šeško joining the team.
The Slovenian striker is the latest rumor that seemingly has some legs and fans will be hoping the clubs can reach an agreement as soon as possible. Also missing out for the hosts are Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ethan Nwaneri and Ben White.
Unai Emery has confirmed a few absences ahead of the trip to London. Center back Pau Torres is out for 6-8 weeks after suffering a foot injury while Ross Barkely and John McGinn are both a week or two away from a return.
Villa spent nearly £20 million to bring in Donyell Malen from Borussia Dortmund and the Dutch international could potentially make an appearance off the bench.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Aston Villa
K. Havertz
(15 Goals)
O. Watkins
(17 Goals)
B. Saka
(13 Assists)
M. Rogers
(12 Assists)
,
O. Watkins
(12 Assists)
Arsenal - Aston Villa Key Points
- Arsenal have seen 12 of their 21 league matches finish with under 2.5 goals.
- The hosts have the best defensive record in the Premier League with 19 goals allowed.
- The last three meetings between these two teams have all finished with under 2.5 goals.
- Three of Arsenal’s last four matches across all competitions have finished with under 2.5 goals.
- Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 away win in their last appearance.
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Our Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction
Arsenal have been very strong on home soil, especially on the defensive end and we’re expecting a similar type of performance here. They limited Tottenham to just 0.78 expected goals and their solitary strike came by way of a deflection.
Recent matches between these two teams have been pretty tightly contested with one side failing to get on the scoresheet in the last three straight. Aston Villa were successful on their last trip to this ground where they picked up a clean sheet victory. Our Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction: under 2.5.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa - Other Interesting Predictions
Arsenal to win
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Aston Villa
| Arsenal vs Aston Villa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 1.44 | 1.53 | +6.3% |
| Draw | 4.5 | 4.1 | -8.9% |
| Aston Villa wins | 6.5 | 6.25 | -3.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 69.4% and is now 65.4% (-4.1%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
