Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Liga Portugal
Portugal - Liga Portugal
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Liga Portugal Predictions
Sporting Lisbon look to close the seven-point gap at the top when they travel to Arouca on Saturday. But just as Arouca held them to a draw 2-2 last year, Lobos (Wolves) could be another difficult game for Leões (Lions). Let's get into our match prediction.
While they're second with a few points off the top, Sporting’s title defence has been great so far. Lisbon has only lost one game all season, winning 14 and drawing three. Their only defeat was to the current league leaders (2-1), Porto, and ever since, the Lions have won 11 of 14 league games.
Their next challenge is Arouca away from home, and Sporting should be confident after thrashing them 6-0 last time out. However, Arouca are steadily gaining momentum after going three games unbeaten in their last four. Lobos drew back-to-back against Santa Clara and Gil Vincente, lost to Tondele, and just beat AVS in their latest game.
That win will provide a huge confidence boost for the home side, who have only won two of their last 11 games. Additionally, that win over AVS also put Arouca three points clear of Casa Pisa in the relegation playoffs spot at 16th. Now, they search for another three points that can propel the Wolves all the way to 12th by the end of Round 19.
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Arouca v Sporting Lisbon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8.8 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
|
|
8.3 | 5.7 | 1.32 |
|
|
7.3 | 5.95 | 1.34 |
|
|
8.5 | 5.75 | 1.27 |
|
|
9.6 | 5.2 | 1.28 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Arouca and Sporting Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon match is: Over 2.5 Goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/01/2026 between Arouca and Sporting Lisbon in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 14.72% for a win of Arouca against Sporting Lisbon with odds of 10 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon is 26.75% with odds of 5.95 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 58.53% chance ⭐ for a win of Sporting Lisbon vs Arouca with odds of 1.34 at Betwinner.
Arouca - Sporting Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arouca Sporting Lisbon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 58.53% | 1.34 at Betwinner |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.71% | 1.55 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 61.25% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Sporting Lisbon/Sporting Lisbon | 28.55% | 1.85 at LSbet |
Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon Form
Arouca and Sporting Lisbon's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
82 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | +65 |
|
8
|
42 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | -17 |
Arouca and Sporting Lisbon Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
21 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
14 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
14 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
1 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
2 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
29 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Nov 2025 - Taca de Portugal
7 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
13 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
30 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
17 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
15 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
13 Sept 2024 - Liga Portugal
10 Mar 2024 - Liga Portugal
8 Oct 2023 - Liga Portugal
16 Apr 2023 - Liga Portugal
Arouca against Sporting Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Valido
DefenderA. Dante
D. Monteiro
MidfielderM. Flores
Y. Santiago
ForwardM. Puche Garcia
B. Mansilla
R. Jansonas
P. Gozalbez
J. Virginia
DefenderZ. Debast
O. Diomande
R. Mangas
G. Vagiannidis
MidfielderA. Santos
H. Morita
D. Braganca
P. Goncalves
Most goals and assists
Arouca
Sporting Lisbon
A. Trezza
(9 Goals)
L. Suarez
(28 Goals)
A. Trezza
(3 Assists)
, 
T. Fukui
(3 Assists)
, 
H. Lee
(3 Assists)
, 
J. Fontán
(3 Assists)
, 
T. Esgaio
(3 Assists)
F. Trincao
(11 Assists)
Arouca - Sporting Lisbon Key Points
- Arouca has conceded 42 goals in the league this season (second-most), which is 2.3 per game.
- Sporting has scored a staggering 50 goals in 18 games this season (the most), which is 2.7 per game.
- Both meetings between Arouca and Sporting in 2025 featured four and six goals, respectively.
- Sporting’s last three games and eight of their last nine have featured 3+ goals.
- Seven of Arouca’s last nine games also featured 3+ goals.
- Sporting has scored the second-most away goals (20), while Arouca has conceded the most home goals (19) in the league this season.
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Our Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction
We should be in for goals in this game as both teams desperately fight for points. What's more, we have the team with the most goals this season visiting the team that's allowed the second-most.
Already, the meeting between Lobos and Leões this season brought fireworks, with Sporting thrashing Arouca six goals to nil. That makes it five league meetings in a row featuring 3+ goals in their H2H. Hence, our Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon prediction is Over 2.5 Goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arouca Sporting Lisbon
| Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca wins | 14 | 10 | -28.6% |
| Draw | 6.75 | 5.95 | -11.9% |
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 1.2 | 1.34 | +11.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sporting Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 11.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 83.3% and is now 74.6% (-8.7%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Arouca vs. Sporting Lisbon game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Arouca and Sporting Lisbon when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Liga Portugal!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
