Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
Villarreal and Real Madrid are coming off contrasting Champions League outings to face off in La Liga. The two will square off at Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica, with hosts Villarreal starting the round in third place and Real Madrid second. Read on for our prediction of this match.
With a game in hand, Villarreal trail league leaders Barcelona by eight points. Going by their recent performances, the extra game might fail to yield much for the Yellow Submarine.
In midweek they suffered a 2-1 loss to Ajax in the Champions League. That was their second straight defeat after their earlier 2-0 loss at Real Betis.
Real Madrid made the most of Barcelona’s slip last week to close the gap with a 2-0 win over Levante at home. They are now trailing the Catalans by just one point, which will motivate them even more here.
While their hosts were losing at home to Ajax in midweek, Real Madrid was having a field day against French side Monaco. They thrashed their visitors 6-1 for their seventh win in the last 10 matches.
Now Los Blancos have to address the little matter of their away form. They’ve lost two straight away matches, conceding three times in each.
A silver lining for them, though, is that in the last five meetings with Villarreal, they are unbeaten, winning four.
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Villarreal v Real Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.65 | 4.1 | 1.85 |
|
|
4 | 4 | 1.81 |
|
|
3.98 | 4.08 | 1.79 |
|
|
3.75 | 4 | 1.85 |
|
|
3.65 | 3.95 | 1.86 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Villarreal and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Villarreal vs Real Madrid match is: Real Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/01/2026 between Villarreal and Real Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.59% for a win of Villarreal against Real Madrid with odds of 4 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Villarreal vs Real Madrid is 6.93% with odds of 4.3 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 61.48% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Villarreal with odds of 1.91 at 888Starz.
Villarreal - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Villarreal Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 61.48% | 1.91 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.79% | |
| Both Team To Score | 74.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Real Madrid/Real Madrid | 31.35% | 2.88 at Bet365 |
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Form
Villarreal and Real Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
86 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 |
|
3
|
72 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 |
Villarreal and Real Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
3 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
15 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
19 May 2024 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2023 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2023 - LaLiga
Villarreal against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
A. Tenas
DefenderS. Cardona
R. Marin
T. Partey
C. Macia
ForwardT. Oluwaseyi
A. Perez
N. Pepe
A. Lunin
S. Mestre
DefenderF. Garcia
D. Alaba
D. Carvajal
D. Aguado
MidfielderD. Ceballos
J. Cestero
ForwardB. Diaz
Rodrygo
G. Garcia
Missing players
L. Costa
S. Mourino
W. Kambwala
MidfielderS. Comesana
ForwardP. Cabanes
A. Ruediger
T. Alexander-Arnold
F. Mendy
E. Militao
MidfielderA. Tchouameni
ForwardEndrick
Most goals and assists
Villarreal
Real Madrid
G. Mikautadze
(13 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
N. Pepe
(8 Assists)
A. Guler
(9 Assists)
Villarreal - Real Madrid Key Points
- Real Madrid won seven of their last 10 matches.
- Real Madrid have four wins in five matches against Levante.
- Villarreal suffered defeat in five of their last seven matches.
- At home, Villarreal lost three of the last four games.
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Our Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction
This one is supposed to be a huge game, but Villarreal’s poor recent run keeps popping up. The hosts are coming off two straight losses, and their stuttering run now has them on five defeats in seven.
They face a confident Real Madrid, who are coming off a big win and have adapted to Alvaro Arbeloa’s style. The opportunity to go top of the table will also be a motivating factor, though in this fixture Real have generally done well. Our prediction for Villarreal v Real Madrid is that Real Madrid wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Villarreal Real Madrid
| Villarreal vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal wins | 3.54 | 4 | +13.0% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 4.3 | +13.2% |
| Real Madrid wins | 1.97 | 1.91 | -3.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.8% and is now 52.4% (1.6%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
