Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
After opening a five-point gap on the relegation zone, Valencia will hope for another giant step when they host Atletico Madrid. This La Liga game finds 12th-placed Valencia 21 points behind Atletico, who are fourth. While predictions for this match will favor Atletico, it remains to be seen how they approach it, with a key Champions League game coming up.
Valencia are coming off a crucial 2-1 win over Girona, collecting four points in their last two matches. That is a point more than what Atletico have amassed in their last five league outings.
Three wins in their last four home matches will boost confidence at the Los Che camp.
Atletico Madrid have gone on a patchy run, managing just two wins in their last 10 matches in all competitions. They are coming from a 1-1 draw with Arsenal in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final.
Ahead of the return match in London next week, the visitors may be forced to consider resting players. Their place in the top four doesn’t seem to be in danger, and Diego Simeone may take that option.
Atleti are 10 points ahead of fifth-placed Real Betis after beating Athletic Bilbao 3-2 last time out. Even as he rings the changes, Simeone will be hoping to avoid a fourth straight away loss in La Liga.
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Valencia v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.74 | 3.95 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.66 | 3.96 | 5.05 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.88 | 4.84 |
|
|
1.67 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.67 | 3.95 | 4.7 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Valencia and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Valencia vs Atletico Madrid match is: Valencia wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 02/05/2026 between Valencia and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.36% for a win of Valencia against Atletico Madrid with odds of 1.76 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Valencia vs Atletico Madrid is 10.16% with odds of 4.04 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.49% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Valencia with odds of 5.05 at Melbet.
Valencia - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Valencia Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia wins | 54.36% | 1.76 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.91% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 60.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Valencia | 19.93% | 4.8 at LSbet |
Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Form
Valencia and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
69 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 |
|
9
|
49 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -9 |
Valencia and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
5 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
5 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
1 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
22 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
18 Apr 2026 - Copa del Rey
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
18 Apr 2026 - Copa del Rey
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
0 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
22 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2024 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2024 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2023 - LaLiga
18 Mar 2023 - LaLiga
Valencia against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
C. Rivero
DefenderR. Iranzo
J. Vazquez
E. Comert
U. Nunez
MidfielderA. Almeida
B. Santamaria
L. Nunez
ForwardD. Raba
H. Duro
D. Lopez
A. Danjuma
J. Oblak
DefenderM. Ruggeri
A. Puric
M. Pubill
D. Martinez Moreno
MidfielderA. Baena
J. Cardoso
Koke
A. Griezmann
A. Lookman
I. Luque Sierra
M. Llorente
Missing players
J. Agirrezabala
DefenderD. Foulquier
M. Diakhaby
T. Correia
J. Copete
ForwardL. Beltran
J. Gimenez
MidfielderN. Gonzalez
P. Barrios
ForwardA. Sorloth
J. Alvarez
G. Simeone
Most goals and assists
Valencia
Atletico Madrid
H. Duro
(10 Goals)
A. Sorloth
(13 Goals)
L. Rioja
(6 Assists)
,
J. Guerra Moreno
(6 Assists)
G. Simeone
(6 Assists)
Valencia - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Valencia have won three of their last four league games at home.
- Valencia are unbeaten in their last two matches, winning the latest.
- Atletico Madrid have lost six times in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Atletico Madrid have lost three straight matches away from home in La Liga.
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Our Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
There is a strong feeling that at this point of the season, Atletico Madrid will prioritize their Champions League campaign. It means the visitors might opt to rest key players, with their top-four place almost guaranteed.
That move will work perfectly for Valencia, who not only have a home advantage but will also name their strongest XI. The recent matches, especially at home, have been positive for Valencia, while Atleti have struggled on the road. With that in mind, our prediction for Valencia v Atletico Madrid is that Valencia wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Valencia Atletico Madrid
| Valencia vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia wins | 2.29 | 1.76 | -23.1% |
| Draw | 4.12 | 4.04 | -1.9% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 2.99 | 5.05 | +68.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Valencia is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 23.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 43.7% and is now 56.8% (13.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
