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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
Ukraine will look to keep hold of their play-off spot from Group D of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification UEFA section when they play Azerbaijan on Monday at the neutral venue in Krakow, Poland. This match between the second-placed ‘Blue and Yellow’ and the fourth-placed ‘The National Team’ comes with our prediction of over 3.5 goals.
With four points ahead of this round (W1, D1, L1), Ukraine are five points behind leaders France and one point ahead of Iceland. Azerbaijan have just one point in this campaign (D1, L2), which came in the reverse fixture. The group leaders qualify directly for the World Cup, while the second-placed team advances to the play-offs.
Ukraine defeated Iceland 5-3 away from home in a high-scoring thriller in their last game to keep their qualification hopes alive. This was preceded by a 1-1 away draw against Ukraine in the reverse fixture, and they will hope to continue the momentum and stay in the top two spots.
Azerbaijan lost 3-0 away at France in their latest match, making it two defeats and a draw in this campaign. The draw was sandwiched between their losses, as Azerbaijan had a heavy 5-0 defeat on matchday one against Iceland. With ten defeats in their last 13 matches, their recent record isn’t convincing enough to back them for a win.
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The Best Betting Odds for Ukraine v Azerbaijan Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.18 | 6.5 | 17 |
|
|
1.18 | 7 | 19 |
|
|
1.18 | 6 | 13 |
|
|
1.18 | 5.75 | 12 |
|
|
1.17 | 7 | 16 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Ukraine and Azerbaijan?
Our prediction for the Ukraine vs Azerbaijan match is: over 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 13/10/2025 between Ukraine and Azerbaijan in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.96% for a win of Ukraine against Azerbaijan with odds of 1.23 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ukraine vs Azerbaijan is 30.99% with odds of 7 at Betfred.
- Our prediction model gives a 11.05% chance ⭐ for a win of Azerbaijan vs Ukraine with odds of 19 at Betfred.
Ukraine - Azerbaijan Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ukraine Azerbaijan Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine wins | 57.96% | 1.23 at Melbet |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 2.39 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 47.92% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time : Ukraine/Ukraine | 26.3% | 1.67 at Bet365 |
Ukraine vs Azerbaijan Form
Ukraine and Azerbaijan's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
|
4
|
1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 |
Ukraine and Azerbaijan Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
26 Jun 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
22 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Ukraine vs Azerbaijan Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
Ukraine against Azerbaijan Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 5 - 1
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Missing players
O. Zinchenko
ForwardV. Tsygankov
Most goals and assists
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
O. Gutsuliak
(3 Goals)
,
R. Malinovskyi
(3 Goals)
R. Dadashov
(1 Goals)
,
E. Makhmudov
(1 Goals)
Ukraine - Azerbaijan Key Points
- Azerbaijan have kept a clean sheet in only two of their last 15 matches.
- Azerbaijan gave up 2.40 expected goals on 33 shots faced in their last outing vs France.
- Ukraine scored 2+ goals in five of their last eight fixtures.
- Three of Azerbaijan’s last five away matches produced over 3.5 goals.
- In four of Ukraine’s last five matches, both teams scored goals.
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Our Ukraine vs Azerbaijan Prediction
This match could be Ukraine’s chance to stay in the second spot of the group, as France seems to be running away with the top place. Playing the group laggards, Azerbaijan should boost their chances, as the visitors have scored just once in this qualification campaign. Ukraine have scored five goals in their latest match against Iceland and will look to continue that scoring form.
This match could see some scoring action from the designated hosts, and our Ukraine vs Azerbaijan prediction is over 3.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ukraine Azerbaijan
| Ukraine vs Azerbaijan | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine wins | 1.22 | 1.18 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 6 | 6.5 | +8.3% |
| Azerbaijan wins | 13 | 17 | +30.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ukraine is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 82.0% and is now 84.7% (2.8%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Ukraine vs. Azerbaijan game!
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Try your luck on this year's World Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
