Sweden vs Poland Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
World - World Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
A seismic showdown is set to unfold at the stunning Strawberry Arena in Solna when Sweden and Poland face off in the Path B European Playoff final on Tuesday night. Blaugult are 41st in FIFA’s global ranking, while Bialo-czerwoni are in 33rd place. Check out our match prediction below!
Sweden endured a turbulent 2026 World Cup qualification campaign, a period during which Jon Dahl Tomasson’s tenure was brought to an end after a defeat to Kosovo last October. Graham Potter has experienced a mixed start to life in charge of The Crowns, but after dowing Ukraine last week, he now has the chance to get the Blue and Yellows back to the global tournament after they failed to do so in 2022.
In the opposite dugout, Jan Urban has yet to taste defeat as head coach of Poland, with the 63-year-old holding a record of five wins and two draws in seven games since replacing Michal Probierz. These two sides met in this exact fixture four years ago, and it was the White and Reds that got through - can the Swedes get their revenge on their home patch this time around? To the key stats!
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Sweden v Poland Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.07 | 3.3 | 3.65 |
|
|
2.09 | 3.38 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.32 | 3.52 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.08 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Sweden and Poland?
Our prediction for the Sweden vs Poland match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/03/2026 between Sweden and Poland in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.93% for a win of Sweden against Poland with odds of 2.15 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sweden vs Poland is 17.36% with odds of 3.5 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.71% chance ⭐ for a win of Poland vs Sweden with odds of 3.7 at 888Starz.
Sweden - Poland Prediction and Best Odds:
| Sweden Poland Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden wins | 45.93% | 2.15 at Betway |
| Under 2.5 | 50.27% | 2.03 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 58.33% | 1.83 at Betway |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Sweden | 19.24% | 5.5 at LSbet |
Sweden vs Poland Form
Sweden and Poland Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
22 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
17 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Nov 2025 - World Cup
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Sweden vs Poland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Mar 2022 - World Cup
23 Jun 2021 - Euro
Sweden - Poland: Form Analysis
Sweden endured a dismal 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign, finishing bottom of their group without a single victory to their name (D2 L4), scoring just four goals while conceding 12.
However, the Blue and Yellows remained in contention to reach the global tournament thanks to their performance in the Nations League, where they won their group in the competition's third tier.
Potter’s first win as head coach came against Ukraine 3-1 in the Playoff semi-final last week. That result also brought an end to the team’s six-match winless run dating back to a friendly against Algeria in June last year.
Sweden are winless in their last three home games across all competitions (D1 L2)!
Meanwhile, Poland fell three points short of the Netherlands during their World Cup qualification campaign, but they were still very impressive, losing only one of their eight Group G games (W5 D2).
The Eagles pulled off a stunning comeback to beat Albania 2-1 in their Playoff semi-final at home last week and are now unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions (W5 D2).
However, their away form has been less impressive, with two wins recorded in their last six on the road. Additionally, their victory over Sweden four years ago was their first against them since 1974.
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Sweden against Poland Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Substitutes
M. Ellborg
N. Tornqvist
DefenderV. Eriksson
E. Stroud
MidfielderW. Swedberg
H. Larsson
B. Zeneli
L. Bergvall
M. Svanberg
T. Ali
G. Lundgren
G. Nilsson
M. Kochalski
B. Dragowski
DefenderJ. Ziolkowski
B. Bereszynski
T. Kedziora
MidfielderO. Pietuszewski
B. Slisz
F. Rozga
J. Moder
K. Grosicki
M. Skoras
K. Piatek
Sweden & Poland Squad Analysis
After failing to score in his World Cup qualification matches for Sweden, Viktor Gyokeres stepped up in a big way last week, netting a hat-trick against Ukraine to power his side into the final.
With Liverpool’s Alexander Isak sidelined through injury, there is no doubt that the Arsenal forward will lead the line for the hosts this week, but Potter will likely be forced into a few changes elsewhere.
The defensive duo of Isak Hien and Gabriel Gudmundsson were forced off with injuries against Ukraine and are major doubts for this match. Carl Starfelt and Daniel Svensson are the most likely to step in if the aforementioned are unable to feature here.
Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski both scored in the 2022 Playoff final against Sweden!
It was that same combination that netted in Poland’s comeback victory over Albania last week, with the former having now recorded seven goal contributions in his last five appearances for the national team.
While most of the headlines went to Lewandowski, it was Sebastian Szymanski who was the most impressive player on the pitch last time out. He was responsible for both assists in the last match and now has four goal contributions in his last three games.
Notably, Atalanta’s Nicola Zalewski is now eligible to return to the team after serving his suspension in the semi-final, and he is expected to replace Filip Rozga in the White and Reds’ attacking trio.
Most goals and assists
Sweden
Poland
V. Gyokeres
(16 Goals)
R. Lewandowski
(8 Goals)
B. Nygren
(8 Assists)
S. Szymanski
(9 Assists)
Sweden - Poland Key Points
- Five of Sweden’s last eight matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- Sweden have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five home games in all competitions.
- Five of Poland’s last eight matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- Poland have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven away games in all competitions.
- Both teams scored in two of the last three matches between these sides.
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Our Sweden vs Poland Prediction
Sweden enter this match as the favourites largely thanks to the home advantage, but they have been far from impressive in recent times, winning only one of their last seven matches across all competitions.
Poland’s away record is not the greatest, but they carry plenty of attacking threat and have scored at least once in each of their last 15 internationals, dating back to a 1-0 Nations League loss against Croatia in September 2024. Therefore, our Sweden vs Poland prediction is BTTS.
Sweden vs Poland Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Six of Sweden’s last nine home games have ended with over 2.5 goals, while Poland have scored two or more goals in six of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Poland wins
Sweden have only won one of their last seven matches across all competitions, while Poland are unbeaten in their last seven and scored two or more goals in three of their last four games.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Sweden Poland
| Sweden vs Poland | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden wins | 2.2 | 2.15 | -2.3% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.5 | +6.1% |
| Poland wins | 3.3 | 3.7 | +12.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sweden is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 45.5% and is now 46.5% (1.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Sweden vs. Poland game!
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Sweden vs Poland - FAQs
The Path B European Playoff final between Sweden and Poland will take place on March 31 at 18:45 GMT.
The Path B European Playoff final between Sweden and Poland will be played at the Strawberry Arena in Solna.
The Path B European Playoff final between Sweden and Poland will be broadcast on Viaplay in Sweden and TVP Sport in Poland. UK viewers can tune in to Amazon Prime.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our World Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
