Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Sporting Lisbon have had to wait 43 years to play at this stage of Europe's top club competition. Tuesday sees them host Arsenal in the first leg of this UCL quarter-final. Can the Lions get a lead to take to the Emirates? Read our match prediction below.
It was back in the days of the European Cup when Sporting last reached the quarter-finals. They did make it to the last eight of the Europa League three years ago and will be determined to get a good result in this first leg. They finished seventh in the league phase of this season's Champions League and it was their home form that helped them qualify for the knockout stages. They will need another strong home performance on Tuesday.
Arsenal finished top of the league phase but as Liverpool found out last season, that does not guarantee success in the knockout stages. The Gunners have lost their last two games, both in cup ties. Their fans are fearng that another run-in meltdown is beginning but Arsenal have been strong in Europe this season with nine wins out of ten and will be a difficult side to beat in this game.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Sporting Lisbon v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.5 | 3.75 | 1.86 |
|
|
4.36 | 3.68 | 1.81 |
|
|
4.42 | 3.56 | 1.83 |
|
|
4.33 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
|
|
4.3 | 3.65 | 1.82 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/04/2026 between Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.57% for a win of Sporting Lisbon against Arsenal with odds of 4.59 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal is 22.83% with odds of 3.75 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.6% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon with odds of 1.9 at 888Starz.
Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Sporting Lisbon Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 42.57% | 4.59 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.05% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 55.42% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Sporting Lisbon | 16.05% | 9.5 at LSbet |
Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Form
Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 Mar 2026 - Taca de Portugal
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3 Mar 2026 - Taca de Portugal
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
5 Feb 2026 - Taca de Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
60 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Nov 2024 - Champions League
16 Mar 2023 - Europa League
9 Mar 2023 - Europa League
8 Nov 2018 - Europa League
25 Oct 2018 - Europa League
Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Sporting Lisbon won five of their eight games in the league phase of this season's UCL. They won all four of their home fixtures and that included a 2-1 win over cup holders PSG. The last 16 saw them have to rely on their strong home form to progress.
The Green and Whites lost the first leg to Bodo/Glimt 3-0 but three goals took them into extra time in the return match and they went on to win the game 5-0 and reach the quarter-finals. With only one away win in Europe this season, they know a good win here may well be vital.
Goals galore have been scored in recent Sporting matches.
Sporting are second in the Primeira League and have won their last three games, most recently beating Santa Clara 4-2 at home. 13 goals have been scored in their last three matches and all but two of their last 15 on home soil have seen more than 2.5 goals scored.
Arsenal are still nine points clear at the top of the English Premier League. Their last two games have both ended in defeat but with less than full strength sides fielded. A loss to Manchester City in the EFL Cup final was followed at the weekend by losing at Southampton in the FA Cup.
The Gunners have won nine of their ten games in this season's UCL. Four out of five on the road have been won and three of the last four have seen more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Sporting Lisbon against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
D. Callai
J. Virginia
DefenderG. Vagiannidis
Quaresma
Z. Debast
R. Mangas
MidfielderD. Braganca
G. Kochorashvili
ForwardS. Faye
R. Nel
F. Goncalves
K. Ranson
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderM. Salmon
C. Mosquera
MidfielderM. Lewis-Skelly
M. Dowman
A. Harriman-Annous
C. Norgaard
ForwardG. Martinelli
G. Jesus
K. Havertz
Missing players
F. Ioannidis
J. Timber
P. Hincapie
MidfielderM. Merino
E. Eze
ForwardB. Saka
Sporting Lisbon & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Arsenal fielded a weakened line-up at the weekend and lost to Championship side Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals. Last week saw a whole host of their players withdraw from their respective international squads. It's fully expected most will make their return on Tuesday.
They did suffer a fresh injury on Saturday with centre-back Gabriel Magathaes coming off against the Saints and he is a doubt for this Champions League game. Definitely out for the Gunners are Eberechi Eze, Mikel Merino and Piero Hincapie.
Gyokeres returns home.
It's been a mixed first season at the Emirates for Viktor Gyokeres since his move from Sporting. However, he has scored five goals in his last three matches at club and international level. Arsenal will look to him to help them continue their impressive run of form on the road this season.
Sporting will be hoping for the same from Luis Suarez. He's scored in each of their home UCL matches with a total of four goals being netted. He is a slight doubt for this game though and it would be a massive blow for Sporting if he was to be absent on Tuesday.
They are still scoring plenty of goals though but they will be wary of Arsenal's ability to press forward and score on their travels. Sporting also have doubts over Luis Guilherme and Ivan Fresneda. Definitely missing will be their captain Morten Hjulmand who is suspended.
Most goals and assists
Sporting Lisbon
Arsenal
L. Suarez
(5 Goals)
G. Martinelli
(6 Goals)
F. Trincao
(3 Assists)
L. Trossard
(5 Assists)
Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal Key Points
- More than 2.5 goals have been scored in eight of Arsenal's lt ten away UCL matches.
- 13 of the last 15 home games Sporting have played have seen more than 2.5 goals scored.
- The last three games played between Sporting and Arsenal have seen more than 2.5 goals scored.
- All five of the home games Sporting have played in this season's UCL have seen at least three goals scored.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Prediction
We should be in for an exciting match on Tuesday as Sporting host Arsenal. The Portuguese side won't need reminding that two years ago, they lost 5-1 at home to the Gunners. With their away form not that great, the Lions know just how important it is that they win this first leg.
Arsenal will need to bounce back from two cup losses but have been so strong on the road in this season's UCL with four wins out of five. We fully expect a few goals on Tuesday and our main Sporting v Arsenal prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Arsenal wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Sporting Lisbon Arsenal
| Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 5.23 | 4.59 | -12.2% |
| Draw | 4.27 | 3.75 | -12.2% |
| Arsenal wins | 1.7 | 1.9 | +11.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sporting Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 12.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 19.1% and is now 21.8% (2.7%)
Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal - FAQs
Sporting are the hosts in this first leg. The game will be played at the Jose Alvalade Stadium in Lisbon, Portugal.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
