Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
On Tuesday evening, we head to North Macedonia for a Champions League first-leg third qualifying round encounter between Shkendija and Qarabag. The winner of this tie between Ballistet and Atlilar will move on to the Playoff round, while the losers will be transferred to the Europa League. Let’s get into the match prediction.
Shkendija are returning to Champions League qualifying for the first time since the 2021-22 season. They have never reached the main draw in a European competition.
The Ballists edged TNS to a 2-1 extra-time victory in the first round of qualifying before stunning FCSB 3-1 on aggregate in the second round. This is only the second time they will feature in round three.
The hosts have an impressive home record coming into this match, having won seven of their last 10 competitive matches and scored two or more goals in four of their last six on home soil.
Meanwhile, Qarabag have featured in these qualifiers in each of the last three seasons but have not made it to the tournament proper since the 2017-18 edition.
The Horsemen entered this competition in the last round and secured a fairly straightforward victory, beating Shelbourne 3-0 on the road in the first leg and 1-0 at home last week.
The visitors played in the Europa League last season but finished bottom of the table during the league phase, where they lost and failed to score in three of their four away games.
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The Best Betting Odds for Shkendija v Qarabag FK Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.5 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
|
|
4.6 | 3.5 | 1.67 |
|
|
4.75 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
|
|
4.5 | 3.6 | 1.73 |
|
|
4.75 | 3.95 | 1.66 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Shkendija and Qarabag FK?
Our prediction for the Shkendija vs Qarabag FK match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/08/2025 between Shkendija and Qarabag FK in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.38% for a win of Shkendija against Qarabag FK with odds of 5.06 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Shkendija vs Qarabag FK is 20.36% with odds of 3.95 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.26% chance ⭐ for a win of Qarabag FK vs Shkendija with odds of 1.74 at Tonybet.
Shkendija vs Qarabag FK Form
Shkendija and Qarabag FK Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2025 - Champions League
22 Jul 2025 - Champions League
15 Jul 2025 - Champions League
8 Jul 2025 - Champions League
25 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jul 2025 - Champions League
15 Jul 2025 - Champions League
17 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2025 - 1. MFL
7 May 2025 - 1. MFL
27 Apr 2025 - 1. MFL
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2025 - Champions League
8 Jul 2025 - Champions League
25 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
11 May 2025 - 1. MFL
4 May 2025 - 1. MFL
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2025 - Champions League
23 Jul 2025 - Champions League
15 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
11 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
7 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2025 - Champions League
11 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
7 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 May 2025 - Azerbaijan Cup
18 May 2025 - Topaz Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Jul 2025 - Champions League
15 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2025 - Topaz Premier League
27 Apr 2025 - Topaz Premier League
11 Apr 2025 - Topaz Premier League
2 Apr 2025 - Azerbaijan Cup
Shkendija - Qarabag FK Key Points
- Three of Shkendija’s four games in this competition ended with under 2.5 goals in regulation time.
- Shkendija have only scored two or more goals in one of their last six competitive matches in regulation time.
- Five of Qarabag’s last eight competitive matches have ended under 2.5 goals.
- Qarabag have kept six clean sheets in their last 11 competitive away games.
- Qarabag failed to score in three of their four Europa League games last season.
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Our Shkendija vs Qarabag FK Prediction
While the visitors are massive favourites to win this tie and progress to the playoff round of this season’s Champions League, we cannot rule out Shkendija just yet, given their performances in the past two rounds.
The hosts beat TNS in round one before stunning the heavily fancied FCSB in the second round, where they also shut out the SuperLiga giants here at Tose Proeski Arena. We’re expecting a tight encounter in this one and would not be surprised if the first goal is the decider. Our Shkendija vs Qarabag prediction is under 2.5.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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