Santos vs Atletico MG Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Sudamericana
South America - Copa Sudamericana
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Football Predictions
Santos will hope to make their home record provide a lead against Atletico in the first leg of the round of 16 in the 2026 Copa Sudamericana competition. This match on Wednesday at Estadio Urbano Caldeira in Santos between the ‘Black-and-White’ and the ‘Rooster’ could be a tight game with goals in short supply, which is why our match prediction is under 2.5 goals.
The winner of this two-legged tie will go on to the semi-finals, where they will face either Cienciano or Montevideo City Torque.
Santos finished second in Group D of this competition with seven points (W1, D4, L1) and qualified for the knockout round playoffs. They then defeated Universidad Central (8-3 aggregate) and Macara (2-1 aggregate) to qualify for this round.
A 3-2 away win at Internacional last weekend puts Santos in good spirits for this fixture, winning two of their last three (D1) games. Their home form hasn’t been encouraging, though, as they won just two of their last seven fixtures here (D4, L1).
Atletico topped group B in this competition with ten points (W3, D1, L2) to directly move into the round of 16, where they defeated Red Bull Bragantino (3-2 on aggregate). They were beaten 2-0 away at Sao Paulo in the Brazilian league last weekend, which ended a 14-game unbeaten run (W8, D6).
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Santos v Atletico MG Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.49 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
|
|
2.36 | 2.92 | 3.49 |
|
|
2.49 | 2.98 | 3.18 |
|
|
2.36 | 3.01 | 3.36 |
|
|
2.36 | 2.92 | 3.49 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Santos and Atletico MG?
Our prediction for the Santos vs Atletico MG match is: under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/09/2026 between Santos and Atletico MG in Copa Sudamericana :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.15% for a win of Santos against Atletico MG with odds of 2.52 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Santos vs Atletico MG is 41.78% with odds of 3.1 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.07% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico MG vs Santos with odds of 3.49 at 1xbet.
Santos - Atletico MG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Santos Atletico MG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 41.78% | 3.10 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 67.78% | 1.95 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 57.92% | 1.78 at 1xbet |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 25.23% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
Santos vs Atletico MG Form
Santos and Atletico MG Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sept 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
2 Sept 2026 - Copa do Brasil
30 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
26 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
23 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 Aug 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Sept 2026 - Copa do Brasil
23 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
13 Aug 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
9 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
28 Jul 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sept 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
30 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
26 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
20 Aug 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
16 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
4 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Sept 2026 - Copa do Brasil
29 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
25 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
22 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Aug 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Sept 2026 - Copa do Brasil
29 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Aug 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
16 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
21 Jul 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
25 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
22 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Aug 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
8 Aug 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
4 Aug 2026 - Copa do Brasil
Santos vs Atletico MG Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
14 Sept 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Apr 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
27 Aug 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
23 Apr 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
5 Oct 2022 - Brasileirão Serie A
Santos against Atletico MG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
Joao Paulo
DefenderRafael Gonzaga
I. Vinicius
J. Santos Paes da Costa
J. Ananias Bento
MidfielderMiguelito
G. Caballero
V. Lima
J. Schmidt
A. Melo
N. Maia da Silva de Souza
Davi Fernandes
R. Assuncao
DefenderNatanael
Vitao
K. Pascini
MidfielderReinier
A. Minda
Alexsander
V. Hugo
M. Cisse
I. Gomes
G. Scarpa
Dudu
Most goals and assists
Santos
Atletico MG
G. Barbosa
(6 Goals)
Bernard
(5 Goals)
G. Barbosa
(4 Assists)
T. Cuello
(4 Assists)
Santos - Atletico MG Key Points
- Seven of Santos’ last 11 games have seen under 2.5 goals.
- Three of Atletico’s last five games have seen two or fewer goals.
- Four of Santos’ last five home matches have seen fewer than three goals.
- Seven of Atletico’s last nine away matches have also seen fewer than three goals.
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Our Santos vs Atletico MG Prediction
Santos had a middling run in the group stages, drawing four of their six games (W1, L1). With only six goals conceded, four of their six league games have produced fewer than three strikes. Atletico have been equally frugal, conceding only six goals in their six league games. Will this continue to be the case here?
The last five matches between these sides have produced two or fewer goals, and that’s likely to continue here. That’s why our Santos vs Atletico MG prediction is under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Santos Atletico MG
| Santos vs Atletico MG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos wins | 2.07 | 2.52 | +21.7% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.10 | -7.5% |
| Atletico MG wins | 3.65 | 3.49 | -4.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 7.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 29.9% and is now 32.3% (2.4%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
