Italy - Serie A
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by Sridhar in Serie A Predictions
On Sunday, Roma and Milan will face off in the penultimate round of Serie A, a match that could potentially determine their prospects for European qualification. This match at Stadio Olimpico between the sixth-placed Giallorossi and the eighth-placed Rossoneri comes with our prediction of over 2.5 goals. There’s a lot riding on the result of this match, with both teams yet to confirm qualification for Europe next season, so expect a tight encounter.
Only four points separate teams from fourth to eighth, which means the battle to finish fourth and qualify for next season’s Champions League is tight. Even the spots fifth to seventh are not confirmed, leaving this result crucial for both teams. Such is the tight nature of the teams that a loss for Roma would see them replaced by Milan in the top six, while a win could propel them into the top four.
With so much riding on the result of this fixture, are we in for a treat? Roma have historically struggled against Milan in recent fixtures, but can they change the script here? Read further to find our predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Roma v AC Milan Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.38 | 3.5 | 2.88 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
|
|
1.95 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Roma and AC Milan?
Our prediction for the Roma vs AC Milan match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/05/2025 between Roma and AC Milan in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.27% for a win of Roma against AC Milan with odds of 2.38 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Roma vs AC Milan is 16.01% with odds of 3.8 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.72% chance ⭐ for a win of AC Milan vs Roma with odds of 3.8 at Stake.
Roma vs AC Milan Form
Roma and AC Milan's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
63 | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 17 |
|
8
|
60 | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
Roma and AC Milan Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 May 2025 - Serie A
4 May 2025 - Serie A
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
19 Apr 2025 - Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2025 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Serie A
19 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2025 - Serie A
16 Mar 2025 - Serie A
6 Mar 2025 - Europa League
2 Mar 2025 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 May 2025 - Serie A
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
29 Mar 2025 - Serie A
13 Mar 2025 - Europa League
9 Mar 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 May 2025 - Coppa Italia
9 May 2025 - Serie A
5 May 2025 - Serie A
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
23 Apr 2025 - Coppa Italia
20 Apr 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2025 - Serie A
20 Apr 2025 - Serie A
5 Apr 2025 - Serie A
2 Apr 2025 - Coppa Italia
15 Mar 2025 - Serie A
2 Mar 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 May 2025 - Coppa Italia
5 May 2025 - Serie A
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
23 Apr 2025 - Coppa Italia
11 Apr 2025 - Serie A
30 Mar 2025 - Serie A
Roma vs AC Milan Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Feb 2025 - Coppa Italia
29 Dec 2024 - Serie A
31 May 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
18 Apr 2024 - Europa League
11 Apr 2024 - Europa League
14 Jan 2024 - Serie A
Roma - AC Milan: Form Analysis
Roma lost 2-1 at Atalanta last Monday, a result that ended their 19-match unbeaten run in the league. In that sequence, the Giallorossi won 14 and drew five games, giving them a strong chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
The hosts are still sixth and only a point outside the top four places, which means a win here will keep their hopes of moving up alive. Getting back to their home venue should raise their spirits, as Roma won 14 and drew two of their last 16 matches in all competitions at this venue.
Roma haven’t won a Serie A match against Milan since October 2019.
That is a worrying sign for the home fans, and in that period there were four draws and six losses. A draw wouldn’t suit either side, while Milan can’t afford a defeat, as it could shut their route to Europe next season.
A 1-0 loss to Bologna at this venue on Wednesday in the Coppa Italia final means Milan can only hope to qualify for Europe via league placement. A win here will see them replace Roma in the top six, so that’s a big incentive for the visitors.
A run of three consecutive league wins suggests Milan are going to be a force to reckon with in this fixture. They have also won four of their last five away league games, which suggests Milan still have some fight left in their game.
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Roma vs AC Milan last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Missing players
L. Pellegrini
ForwardP. Dybala
Roma & AC Milan Squad Analysis
The usual absences for Roma continue, as Paulo Dybala, Buba Sangare, and Lorenzo Pellegrini are unavailable for selection. There are no further injury scares in the side, and that could mean reverting to their best XI.
Roma lined up in a 3-4-1-2 formation against Atalanta but could return to their 3-5-2 formation here. That will leave Matias Soule playing on the right wing rather than in the number 10 position he played against Atalanta. He has five goals and three assists to his name but is yet to make a strong impression.
Artem Dovbyk could be key for Roma’s chances.
The Ukrainian forward has 12 goals to his name, and critically, his last five strikes have been winners for Roma!
Milan have only a few injuries to worry about, as Riccardo Sottil and Warren Bondo remain their absentees for this fixture. The visitors are likely to press forward with their usual 3-4-3 formation with Santiago Gimenez playing slightly ahead of Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao.
The two wingers could be critical for Gimenez’s runs, as Pulisic has nine assists and Leao has eight assists to his name in this Serie A campaign. The two have also combined for 19 goals between them, so they are unlikely to just be satisfied with crosses to the box.
Most goals and assists
Roma
AC Milan
A. Dovbyk
(14 Goals)
C. Pulisic
(15 Goals)
E. Shomurodov
(4 Assists)
, 
P. Dybala
(4 Assists)
C. Pulisic
(10 Assists)
Roma and AC Milan Stats in Serie A
Roma - AC Milan Key Points
- Over the last eight league matches, Milan’s fixtures averaged 3.00 goals per game.
- Milan’s 18 away matches this season have also averaged 3.00 goals per fixture, a league-high.
- Six of Milan’s last seven away league matches produced over 2.5 goals.
- Roma scored an average of 1.89 goals per match in their home fixtures this Serie A season.
- In seven of the last nine league matches between Roma and Milan, over 2.5 goals have been scored.
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Our Roma vs AC Milan Prediction
There’s so much at stake for not just Roma and Milan, with the race to finish fourth as well as remain in the top six positions proving to be a close affair. Roma have seen their unbeaten run come to an end in the last round against Atalanta, and another loss here will push them out of the European qualification spots. Milan can’t afford a loss themselves, and that promises a game of goals. This fixture historically has produced goals aplenty, and our Roma vs AC Milan prediction is over 2.5.
Roma vs AC Milan - Other Interesting Predictions
Artem Dovbyk to score anytime.
With Paulo Dybala out for the rest of the season, it has been Artem Dovbyk who was responsible for Roma’s upturn. He has 12 goals and two assists to his name in this league campaign. More importantly, his last five goals have been match-winners for Roma. Another strike from him could well be the tonic the home fans want. Back Artem Dovbyk to score anytime.
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Roma vs AC Milan match : Frequently asked questions
The Roma v AC Milan Italian Serie A match will be live on DAZN Italy in Italy.
You can also follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Italian Serie A Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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