Spain - LaLiga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in LaLiga Predictions
In arguably the biggest club football match in the world, this season's first El Clasico will be played out in Madrid on Sunday as Real Madrid hosts Barcelona for a matchday 10 fixture of the 2025-26 La Liga campaign. This match will feature two of the biggest rivals in Spain, who start this round in the top two positions, Los Blancos in first and Barca in second, making this game a top-of-the-table clash. Our prediction is for the game to produce more than 3.5 goals.
With 24 points from nine matches (W8, L1), Real are perched at the top of the standings with a two-point lead over Barca (W7, D1, L1). The hosts are making a habit of winning matches even when they aren't playing at their best, something their recent league wins highlight.
Barcelona have bounced back after the international break with consecutive wins, but nothing is better than getting one past the biggest rival! The visitors can't afford a loss here and falling five points behind in the title race. That adds extra intrigue to this contest, but can Barcelona continue their recent dominance over Madrid? Read more to find our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Real Madrid v Barcelona Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.8 | 4.33 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.9 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.85 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.83 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.86 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Barcelona?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Barcelona match is: more than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/10/2025 between Real Madrid and Barcelona in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 49.82% for a win of Real Madrid against Barcelona with odds of 14 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Barcelona is 9.53% with odds of 8.09 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.65% chance ⭐ for a win of Barcelona vs Real Madrid with odds of 3.7 at Bet365.
Real Madrid - Barcelona Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Madrid Barcelona Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 49.82% | 14 at 22bet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.42% | 1.41 at Betobet |
| Both Team To Score | 68.33% | 1.3 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Real Madrid | 20.16% | 5.8 at Unibet |
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Form
Real Madrid and Barcelona's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
40 | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 27 |
|
2
|
36 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
Real Madrid and Barcelona Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
28 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
25 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
28 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
14 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
25 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
18 Sept 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
16 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
0 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 May 2025 - LaLiga
26 Apr 2025 - Copa del Rey
12 Jan 2025 - Spanish Super Cup
26 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Apr 2024 - LaLiga
Real Madrid - Barcelona: Form Analysis
Madrid won 1-0 at home against Juventus in the midweek Champions League clash for a fourth competitive win in a row. Los Blancos have recovered well since their 5-2 drubbing at the hands of Atletico towards the end of September.
That loss was followed by wins over Villarreal and Getafe in the league, giving them the right platform for this crucial fixture. The home fans will be at their boisterous best, as Madrid won all six competitive home games this season.
Barcelona won all four Clasicos last season.
The Catalans were at their best in the midweek, demolishing Olympiacos 6-1 in the Champions League. In the league, they won 2-1 at home against Girona last weekend, and these two victories helped overcome the downside of losing back-to-back competitive matches.
Hansi Flick will be wary of Madrid's threat, as Barcelona were shocked 4-1 by Sevilla in their last away league game. They are still vulnerable at the back, having conceded in their last five league trips.
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Real Madrid against Barcelona Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
A. Rudiger
D. Alaba
M. Ter Stegen
J. Garcia
MidfielderGavi
D. Olmo
ForwardR. Lewandowski
Real Madrid & Barcelona Squad Analysis
Xabi Alonso is likely to go back to his tried and tested formation of 4-2-3-1, having used a bit more enterprising 4-3-3 in a few games. The hosts will be without the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dani Carvajal, and Dean Huijsen, although the trio is nearing a return.
It will be Kylian Mbappe leading the line for the hosts, with the French forward looking to lift his game in a crucial fixture. Having scored in 11 of his last 12 matches for club and country, Mbappe will look for more fireworks here.
Mbappe has 11 goals in eight games against Barca, including five in four El Clasicos!
Barca have a lengthier list of absences, with Raphinha, Gavi, Robert Lewandowski, and Dani Olmo all missing out. Coach Hansi Flick is unlikely to flinch and is set to continue with his favorite 4-2-3-1 formation.
Ferran Torres could be the one leading the line, but keep an eye on Marcus Rashford on the left wing and Lamine Yamal on the right. Rashford scored a brace against Olympiacos, while Yamal has three goals and eight assists in his last nine matches for club and country.
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Barcelona
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
F. Torres
(13 Goals)
A. Guler
(7 Assists)
M. Rashford
(9 Assists)
,
L. Yamal
(9 Assists)
Real Madrid - Barcelona Key Points
- Barcelona’s matches average 3.78 goals per game this season, the most in La Liga after nine rounds.
- Barcelona’s five away games this season average 3.80 goals per fixture.
- Over the last eight rounds, Barcelona average 3.88 and Real Madrid average 3.50 goals per game.
- In four of their last six competitive games, Madrid saw over 3.5 goals scored.
- Madrid scored 2+ goals in four of their last five home matches.
- Barcelona scored 26 goals across their last nine competitive matches.
- The last six competitive matches between these sides produced at least four goals each time.
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Our Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction
Context and form go out of the window when these sides meet, but this time out, the stakes are large. Just two points separate the teams at the top of the table, which is looking like a two-horse race. Even a draw would follow Madrid to maintain their lead, while a loss for Barca would make things tougher for the visitors in the longer run.
With both teams boasting impressive scoring records in the lead-up to this fixture, the season's first El Clasico promises to be a thriller. Our Real Madrid vs Barcelona prediction is more than 3.5 goals.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona - Other Interesting Predictions
Barcelona to win
Barcelona dominated this fixture last year, registering four El Clasico wins and lifting two trophies at the expense of their greatest rival. Los Blancos have a solid form coming into this fixture, but Barcelona seem to have a slight edge. Back the visitors to continue their winning streak.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Madrid Barcelona
| Real Madrid vs Barcelona | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 2.1 | 1.8 | -14.3% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 4.33 | +17.0% |
| Barcelona wins | 3.3 | 3.7 | +12.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 14.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 47.6% and is now 55.6% (7.9%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Real Madrid vs. Barcelona game!
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Real Madrid vs Barcelona match : Frequently asked questions
The Real Madrid vs Barcelona Spanish La Liga match is streamed live and exclusive on Premier Sports 1 in the UK. The channel also has a new streaming service supported by a wide range of devices and platforms, which should come as a relief to many fans in the country looking to catch up with this cracking fixture. In Spain, Movistar+ and DAZN La Liga platforms are set to broadcast the game.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Spanish La Liga Livescore page!
El Clasico, or 'The Classic' in Spanish, is the name given to any football match between rivals Real Madrid and Barcelona. This fixture is considered to be one of the fiercest rivalries and is one of the most sought after games on the football calendar.
To add to the spice on the field, this fixture also carries a large-scale political connotation. The Catalan independence movement, with the two clubs often taking opposing political positions, adds to the intrigue.
The two clubs are also among the wealthiest and most successful football clubs in the world. That's why every time they take the field, there's much more than just a football match on offer!
Real Madrid leads in head-to-head record in official matches with 105 wins to 104 wins for Barcelona. There were 52 draws along the way, so the next Barcelona win will even things up!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
