Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Benfica have had a poor start to the Champions League but will be targeting back-to-back wins when they host Napoli next. After five matches in the league stage, the Eagles have posted just three points, leaving them in 30th spot. Meanwhile, their Italian opponents come into this game seeking a third win of the campaign, starting the round in 20th place. Ahead of this match at Estadio da Luz, below is our preview and a prediction.
Away to Ajax in matchday five action, Benfica registered their first win of the campaign. That forms part of their five-match unbeaten run ahead of this game, but they will be gunning for their first home win in the league phase after losing the first two.
Napoli will be gunning for a third win at this stage. They’ve already beaten a Portuguese side this season and will hope to extend their good record against the Primeira Liga sides.
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The Best Betting Odds for Benfica Lisbon v Napoli Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 3.1 | 2.75 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.15 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.73 | 3.13 | 2.73 |
|
|
2.68 | 3.1 | 2.74 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.15 | 2.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Benfica Lisbon and Napoli?
Our prediction for the Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli match is: Napoli wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/12/2025 between Benfica Lisbon and Napoli in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 47.3% for a win of Benfica Lisbon against Napoli with odds of 2.8 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli is 17.88% with odds of 3.15 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.81% chance ⭐ for a win of Napoli vs Benfica Lisbon with odds of 3.04 at 888Starz.
Benfica Lisbon - Napoli Prediction and Best Odds:
| Benfica Lisbon Napoli Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 47.3% | 2.8 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 2.47 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Benfica Lisbon/Benfica Lisbon | 20.03% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli Form
Benfica Lisbon and Napoli's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
23
|
7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 |
|
25
|
6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 |
Benfica Lisbon and Napoli Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
29 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Taca de Portugal
9 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
9 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - Portugal League Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
26 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Taca de Portugal
1 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
17 Oct 2025 - Taca de Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Dec 2025 - Serie A
3 Dec 2025 - Coppa Italia
30 Nov 2025 - Serie A
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Serie A
9 Nov 2025 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Dec 2025 - Serie A
3 Dec 2025 - Coppa Italia
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Serie A
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - Serie A
9 Nov 2025 - Serie A
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Serie A
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Dec 2016 - Champions League
28 Sept 2016 - Champions League
Benfica Lisbon - Napoli: Form Analysis
When Benfica last won a home game in Europe, Jose Mourinho was the losing coach, against Fenerbahce. Now he will be leading Benfica, hoping to get a first home win of his current reign in Europe.
Home matches have generally been challenging, not just in Europe; Benfica are winless in the last three. Across their last 10 home matches, the Eagles managed just four wins.
Heading into this game, they are unbeaten in five matches, winning three. None of those wins came at home, and in their most recent outing, they drew 1-1 with Sporting.
Benfica have only lost twice in the last eight against Italian teams. However, they have only one win in 12 home matches in the Champions League proper.
All of Napoli’s seven points in the Champions League came at home.
Napoli comes into this game on a very solid footing. Their 2-1 win against Juventus in Serie A on Sunday was a big step in their title defence.
Napoli’s two wins so far in the Champions League have come in home matches, and they will be looking to do the same on the road. One of the teams they beat was the Portuguese champion, Sporting.
With three wins in these teams’ last four meetings, Napoli will be confident of claiming three points here. The Italians actually have a good run against Portuguese teams.
They’ve lost only twice against Primeira Liga sides in eight meetings, winning three. In their last two visits to Portugal, they came out having won.
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Benfica Lisbon against Napoli Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
S. Soares
DefenderJ. Wynder
J. Neto
A. Silva
M. Silva
T. Freitas
J. Veloso
ForwardG. Prestianni
A. Schjelderup
J. Rego
R. Rego
V. Pavlidis
M. Ferrante
N. Contini
DefenderJ. Jesus
L. Spinazzola
A. Vergara
M. Politano
G. Ambrosino
L. Lucca
Missing players
A. Bah
ForwardH. Araujo
A. Meret
DefenderM. Gutierrez
MidfielderK. De Bruyne
S. Lobotka
F. Anguissa
B. Gilmour
ForwardR. Lukaku
Benfica Lisbon & Napoli Squad Analysis
Benfica skipper Nicolas Otamendi will be a key player in this game. The experienced Argentine will be looked upon to marshal the defence against a very attacking Napoli side.
The hosts will have a threat of their own in attack, though. Vangelis Pavlidis has been their leading light in attack and hasn’t got a lot wrong since his 2024 move from AZ Alkmaar.
In 83 games at Benfica, he has scored 46 times. Across all competitions this season, he has 15 goals, one of them in the Champions League.
Romelu Lukaku is injured and will not have a reunion with former manager Mourinho.
This will be a reunion of sorts for Napoli’s David Neres. The Brazilian left Benfica for the Italian giants in August 2024 after scoring 17 times in 83 appearances.
He will hope to make a difference in his 47th outing for Napoli, having already netted six goals. This season, he has seven goal involvements at Napoli and is a favorite to score or assist against a team he knows so well.
Another livewire for Napoli is Scott McTominay. The midfielder has three Champions League goals to his name and seven goal involvements for the season. The team will, however, be without Kevin De Bruyne in midfield, and Eljif Elmas will once again be expected to provide some creativity.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Napoli
L. Barreiro
(2 Goals)
S. Mctominay
(3 Goals)
G. Sudakov
(2 Assists)
K. De Bruyne
(2 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon - Napoli Key Points
- Benfica are winless in their last four matches at home.
- Napoli are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four.
- Three of these teams’ four meetings ended in Napoli winning.
- Benfica’s last two home Champions League games ended in defeat.
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Our Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli Prediction
Napoli will head into this game with the better run in recent matches and will be more confident, especially after that win against Juventus. The Italian side has struggled somehow in earlier matches but come into this one with a bit of momentum.
As they are hitting their stride, Napoli will be happy to face a side that is not only on a winless run but has also struggled at home. In the four meetings between these two sides, Napoli posted three wins. Benfica’s form suggests they could once again be on the losing end here. Our prediction for Benfica v Napoli is that Napoli wins.
Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli - Other Interesting Predictions
BTTS-No
If there is one area these two sides will be keen to address ahead of this game, it has to be the attacking department. In three of Benfica’s last five Champions League matches, they failed to score. They kept just one clean sheet in the process, and both teams scored in one of the five games.
As for Napoli, both teams scored in two of their five Champions League matches. They failed to score in two and three clean sheets were record in three of the five outings. With such numbers, we will back BTTS-No as our second prediction.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Benfica Lisbon Napoli
| Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 2.29 | 2.8 | +22.3% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.15 | -7.4% |
| Napoli wins | 3.25 | 3.04 | -6.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Benfica Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 22.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 43.7% and is now 35.7% (-8.0%)
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Benfica Lisbon vs Napoli - FAQs
The Benfica v Napoli match will be played on Wednesday, 10th December.
The Benfica v Napoli match will be played at the Estadio Da Luz in Lisbon.
If following the match from Portugal, it will be aired on Sport TV and DAZN. Sky and Amazon Prime will be airing the gamed in Italy. Meanwhile, SportyTrader will have the match updates for this and other Champions League matches.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
