Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Joseph King | in LaLiga Predictions
Sunday sees one of La Liga’s most anticipated fixtures set to write another chapter as Real Madrid hosts Atletico for a matchday 29 El Derbi Madrileño. Los Blancos are in second place and trying to keep pace with leaders Barcelona, while Los Colchoneros come into this one sitting fourth. Check out our match prediction below!
Real Madrid picked up a huge momentum boost thanks to their Champions League destruction of the mighty Manchester City in the round of 16. They advanced to the quarters via a 5-1 aggregate scoreline, with Tuesday's second leg resulting in a 2-1 away win at the death.
Los Merengues have now won their last four games on the trot across all competitions, which includes back-to-back victories in La Liga. As we now enter into the final 10 league fixtures of the 2025-26 campaign, Real Madrid find themselves four points behind Barcelona.
Villarreal’s win on Friday has seen Atletico drop to fourth for the time being, but Simeone’s side can return to third place in the standings with a draw or a win here.
Atleti also advanced to the last eight of the UCL after a 7-5 aggregate win over Tottenham, despite losing the away leg 3-2 on Wednesday. It snapped a three-game winning streak for Los Rojiblancos but they’ve been in strong form overall with four consecutive victories in the league.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.07 | 3.9 | 3.45 |
|
|
1.9 | 3.82 | 3.74 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.68 | 3.68 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match is: Real Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/03/2026 between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.64% for a win of Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.07 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid is 11.79% with odds of 3.9 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid with odds of 3.79 at 888Starz.
Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Madrid Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 57.64% | 2.07 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.53% | 1.6 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score | 57.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Real Madrid/Real Madrid | 25.88% | 3.2 at Bet365 |
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Form
Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
86 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 |
|
4
|
69 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 |
Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
2 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
2 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
3 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
5 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Sept 2024 - LaLiga
Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
S. Mestre
F. Gonzalez
DefenderD. Aguado
A. Carreras
T. Alexander-Arnold
D. Alaba
MidfielderE. Camavinga
J. Bellingham
Manuel Angel
ForwardG. Garcia
F. Mastantuono
K. Mbappe
M. de Luis
S. Esquivel
DefenderN. Molina
C. Lenglet
J. Gimenez
N. Gonzalez
A. Baena
O. Vargas
J. Diaz
ForwardT. Almada
A. Sorloth
Missing players
T. Courtois
DefenderF. Mendy
E. Militao
R. Asencio
ForwardRodrygo
Endrick
J. Oblak
DefenderM. Pubill
MidfielderB. Pablo
R. Mendoza
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
A. Sorloth
(13 Goals)
A. Guler
(9 Assists)
G. Simeone
(6 Assists)
Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Real Madrid have won 12 of 14 La Liga home matches this season.
- Real Madrid have won nine of their last 10 at home across all competitions, scoring 30 goals and conceding seven.
- Real Madrid have an xG difference per 90 of +1.11 compared to +0.49 for Atleti.
- Atletico have just a single win in their last five away matches, losing three.
- Atletico have scored 13 goals away from home compared to 34 on home soil.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid will know they will have little room for error in the home stretch of the season if they are to catch Barcelona. Atletico, meanwhile, are virtually guaranteed a top-four spot, but will want to continue gathering momentum with the Champions League quarters and a Copa del Rey final on the horizon.
The visitors have had a lot of success at this ground in recent years, but the hosts will be approaching this as a must-win, and the return of Kylian Mbappe will be a major boost to their chances. Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Real Madrid wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Madrid Atletico Madrid
| Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 1.92 | 2.07 | +7.8% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.9 | +1.3% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 3.85 | 3.79 | -1.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.1% and is now 48.3% (-3.8%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid game
You can get yourself up to €100 in matched bets for the battle between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on LaLiga!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
