Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup

England - FA Cup

Newcastle
10/01/2026 09:00
Bournemouth

Prediction :

 

More than 2.5 goals

 
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 by Thobelani Moyo in FA Cup Predictions

Newcastle United have two cup games lined up in the space of three days, but their focus right now is on the impending FA Cup fixture, where they are set to host Bournemouth at St. Jame's Park in the third round before meeting Manchester City in the EFL Cup. Let's head into the match prediction. 

Newcastle United and Bournemouth have met each other three times in this competition. The two sides have both recorded one win, with one outing ending in a draw. However, their last meeting dates back to 1992, with Bournemouth winning 4-3 on penalties in the third round replay. 

These sides have already met once in Premier League action this season, and that meeting ended in a goalless draw. For the Cherries, that was a positive result, considering it extended their unbeaten run in this fixture to six matches across all competitions. Can the visitors avoid another defeat here? Read on for our full match analysis below!

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The Best Betting Odds for Newcastle v Bournemouth Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
1.71 4 4.2
Betfred
1.8 3.75 4.33
William Hill
1.73 3.7 4
Unibet
1.73 3.95 4.25
Betway
1.73 4 4
Check all Newcastle vs Bournemouth odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Bournemouth?

Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Bournemouth match is: more than 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/01/2026 between Newcastle and Bournemouth in FA Cup :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.15% for a win of Newcastle against Bournemouth with odds of 1.8 at Betfred.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Bournemouth is 32.5% with odds of 4.1 at Tonybet.
  • Our prediction model gives a 13.35% chance ⭐ for a win of Bournemouth vs Newcastle with odds of 4.45 at Shangrila.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Form

Newcastle and Bournemouth Last Matches

Newcastle
Newcastle Last matches
W D L W W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

7 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Newcastle
4 :  3
Leeds

4 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  0
Crystal Palace

30 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley
1 :  3
Newcastle

26 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  0
Newcastle

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  2
Chelsea

17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle
2 :  1
Fulham
D W W D W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

7 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Newcastle
4 :  3
Leeds

4 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  0
Crystal Palace

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  2
Chelsea

17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle
2 :  1
Fulham

6 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  1
Burnley

2 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  2
Tottenham
L W D L L W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

30 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Burnley
1 :  3
Newcastle

26 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  0
Newcastle

14 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland
1 :  0
Newcastle

10 Dec 2025 - Champions League

Bayer Leverkusen
2 :  2
Newcastle

29 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Everton
1 :  4
Newcastle

25 Nov 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
2 :  1
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Bournemouth Last matches
D D L D L W
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.83 Total goals
100% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
2.67 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

7 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Bournemouth
3 :  2
Tottenham

3 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Bournemouth
2 :  3
Arsenal

30 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Chelsea
2 :  2
Bournemouth

27 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Brentford
4 :  1
Bournemouth

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Burnley

15 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
4 :  4
Bournemouth
D L D D L W
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

7 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Bournemouth
3 :  2
Tottenham

3 Jan 2026 - Premier League

Bournemouth
2 :  3
Arsenal

20 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Burnley

6 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
0 :  0
Chelsea

2 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
0 :  1
Everton

22 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
2 :  2
West Ham
L L L D L D
Wins

0/6 (0%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

5 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
3.33 Goals conceded
100% Over 2.5
0% Under 2.5

30 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Chelsea
2 :  2
Bournemouth

27 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Brentford
4 :  1
Bournemouth

15 Dec 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
4 :  4
Bournemouth

29 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Sunderland
3 :  2
Bournemouth

9 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Aston Villa
4 :  0
Bournemouth

2 Nov 2025 - Premier League

Manchester City
3 :  1
Bournemouth

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Newcastle

0 %

Draw

67 %

Bournemouth

33 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.5
Total goals
67%
BTTS
0.83
Goals scored (home team)
1.67
Goals scored (away team)
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5

21 Sept 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
0 :  0
Newcastle

18 Jan 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
1 :  4
Bournemouth

25 Aug 2024 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Newcastle

17 Feb 2024 - Premier League

Newcastle
2 :  2
Bournemouth

11 Nov 2023 - Premier League

Bournemouth
2 :  0
Newcastle

11 Feb 2023 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Newcastle

Newcastle - Bournemouth: Form Analysis

Newcastle United recently secured a gritty 4-3 home victory against Leeds United in midweek Premier League action. This extended their league-winning streak to three games.

The Magpies' motivation should be at a high as they enter the third round of the FA Cup. Home advantage could be key to their success in this competition, having avoided defeat in their last 12 games at St. Jame's Park across all competitions (W10, D2).

Success here could see them progress beyond the third round for the first time since the 2011-12 edition, where they defeated Blackburn, who at that time were a Premier League outfit.

Newcastle United have lost their last four FA Cup matches against Premier League opposition in the third round. 

Bournemouth have not been the best-performing team lately, particularly in the Premier League. The visitors have won just one of their last 12 matches heading into this clash.

The Cherries' only win came on Wednesday when they defeated Tottenham Hotspur 3-2 at home to end an 11-match winless run.

The Cherries also start in the third round of the FA Cup. Their performance in this competition has been outstanding, particularly on the road. They've won their last four away matches in this competition, with their last win coming against Everton in February 2025.

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Newcastle vs Bournemouth last Lineups

Newcastle

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

1
N. Pope
67
L. Miley
12
M. Thiaw
5
F. Schar
3
L. Hall
39
B. Guimaraes
8
S. Tonali
7
Joelinton
11
H. Barnes
27
N. Woltemade
10
A. Gordon
9
Evanilson
22
E. Kroupi
16
M. Tavernier
24
A. Semenyo
4
L. Cook
8
A. Scott
3
A. Truffert
5
M. Senesi
23
J. Hill
20
A. Jimenez
1
D. Petrovic

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Bournemouth

Missing players

Newcastle
Newcastle
Goalkeeper

N. Pope

Defender

S. Botman

K. Trippier

Forward

W. Osula

Joelinton

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Defender

M. Akinmboni

Midfielder

B. Doak

Forward

R. Christie

Newcastle & Bournemouth Squad Analysis

Newcastle United have five players in the injury room, including Dan Burn, Jamaal Lascelles, William Osula, Emil Krafth, and Anthony Elanga.

Head coach Eddie Howe is likely to opt for a 4-3-3 formation in this one, as has been the case in the past few weeks. Yoane Wissa is expected to lead the attack while Murphy and Woltemade provide support from the wings.

Nick Woltemade provided a crucial assist last time out against Leeds United. The 23-year-old has made 27 appearances for the club this season and has scored nine goals. He could prove to be a game-changer as he seeks to score his first goal in the FA Cup.

Antoine Semenyo has scored two goals in his last three away appearances. 

Bournemouth, on the other hand, have six players in the injury room, with a majority of them being long-term absentees.

The Cherries will leave nothing to chance in this upcoming encounter, meaning they are likely to name a strong starting lineup. 

Evanilson has been in red-hot form for the team recently. He scored the team's first goal against Tottenham Hotspur last time out, which marked the second successive time he has rattled the net. Another key player to watch out for has to be Antoine Semenyo. The Ghanaian international has scored four goals in the last six matches.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Newcastle
CD Huachipato Bournemouth
Top Goalscorer
England H. Barnes (9 Goals)
Germany N. Woltemade (9 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Ghana A. Semenyo (10 Goals)
Best assists
Brazil B. Guimaraes (5 Assists)
Best assists
Argentina M. Senesi (4 Assists)

Newcastle - Bournemouth Key Points

  1. Newcastle United have seen two of their last three matches end with over 2.5 goals.
  2. Bournemouth have seen each of their last eight away matches end with over 2.5 goals.
  3. Newcastle United are averaging 1.9 goals per game at home, while Bournemouth are averaging 1.7 goals per game away.
  4. Bournemouth have conceded 25 goals in their last eight away matches.
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Our Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

Newcastle United have been the better side on paper in terms of form. They've won three consecutive matches and scored three or more goals in two of those outings. For a side considered to be cup specialists, a positive outcome should be on the cards. 

Bournemouth's defense could turn out to be their undoing in this clash. The visitors are conceding 2.2 goals per game on the road. Additionally, they have conceded three or more goals in six of their last eight matches. With that being said, expect a high-scoring affair. Our Newcastle United vs Bournemouth prediction: more than 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

 

More than 2.5 goals

 
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Newcastle vs Bournemouth - Other Interesting Predictions

BTTS

Odds 1.61
Barring their recent goalless draw, Newcastle United and Bournemouth had seen both teams score in each of their last three meetings. Given the recent defensive vulnerabilities shown by both sides, a clean sheet here is unlikely, with goals at both ends of the pitch expected.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction