New Zealand vs France Prediction & Betting Tips - Nations Championship
Rugby Union - Nations Championship
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Nations Championship Predictions
World No.2 New Zealand host fourth-ranked France in the opening match of the inaugural Nations Championship campaign at One NZ Stadium in Christchurch. New Zealand have won seven of their last eight home matches (three of those victories came against France), while France have lost four of their last five meetings with the top three, hence our prediction in favor of the home team.
New Zealand will be out to lay down a major marker as they begin their quest for the Maiden Nations Championship title. We expect nothing short of a thriller as the Southern Hemisphere giants trade tackles with the reigning back-to-back European champions France.
For France, this tie rekindles memories of their heaviest-ever 61–10 defeat to the 20-time Rugby Championship winners in 2007. While a lot has changed for the Blues since then, with four more Six Nations titles added to their trophy cabinet, they have played second fiddle to New Zealand in recent meetings between the two sides and face additional challenge overturning their poor record against the world's top three teams. What are their chances? Stick around as we analyze further.
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New Zealand v France Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.1 | 33 | 5.5 |
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|
1.18 | 34 | 5.02 |
|
|
1.18 | 23 | 5.03 |
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|
1.18 | 23 | 5.03 |
|
|
1.18 | 34 | 5.02 |
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New Zealand vs France Form
New Zealand and France Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
4 Oct 2025 - The Rugby Championship
27 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
27 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
13 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
4 Oct 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
14 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
15 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
5 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
14 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
5 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
15 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
8 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
New Zealand vs France Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
8 Sept 2023 - Rugby World Cup
20 Nov 2021 - Test Matches
New Zealand - France: Form Analysis
Apart from their superior position in the rankings, New Zealand arrives for this contest on the back of an impressive Grand Slam tour that saw them win three of their four matches. The All Blacks roast Wales 52–26 in the final Test of that tour.
Interestingly, the demolition of Wales capped a fantastic finish to 2025 for Dave Rennie's side, seeing them secure victories in five of their last six matches. They have been just as formidable at home, having racked up seven wins in their last eight outings in New Zealand.
France lost all three of their 2025 summer Test series against New Zealand
Bordeaux Begles sensation Louis Bielle-Biarrey's hat-trick of tries proved decisive as France edged England 48–46 last time out to retain the Six Nations title. However, a significantly tougher test awaits them in Christchurch against one of the world's strongest sides.
Fabien Galthié's side's title-clinching victory over England was just their first win in five matchups with higher-ranked teams, having lost each of their previous four. Interestingly, three of those losses came in their 2025 summer tour of New Zealand. They have lost four of their five away matches, three of which by double digits.
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New Zealand & France Squad Analysis
Unlike their French counterparts, New Zealand head into this clash nearly at full strength. Team captain and notable ball-carrier Ardie Savea returns in the back row alongside Jacobson and Peter Lakai. 17-cap scrum-half Cameron Roigard will partner Ruben Love, who will be making just his sixth Test appearance for the team, at half-back.
Dave Rennie will also rely heavily on the attacking prowess of full-back Damian McKenzie and wing Will Jordan. The duo have combined for a terrific 425 Test points for the All Blacks across 128 total caps and will return in the back three on Saturday.
Will Jordan has scored 44 tries for New Zealand, becoming the team's leading active try scorer on the international scene
France are likely to struggle in attack with their game-breaker and 2026 Six Nations hero Louis Bielle-Biarrey remained in preparation for the Autumn internationals after a demanding season with Bordeaux Begles. The Blues' firepower is further weakened with Toulouse duo Antoine Dupont and Thomas Ramos both missing from the team.
Scrum-half Maxime Lucu takes over the captaincy in Dupont's absence, deputizing at scrum-half, while Max Spring stands in for Ramos at full-back. The biggest addition to the away side yet is the inclusion of their all-time leading try scorer Damian Penaud with 40 Test tries to his name.
New Zealand - France Key Points
- New Zealand have won five of their last six matches.
- New Zealand have won seven of their last eight home matches.
- France have lost four of their last five Tests against the top three.
- France have lost four of their last five away Tests.
- The Blues have suffered defeats in each of their last three meetings with New Zealand.
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Our New Zealand vs France Prediction
France faces a stern challenge here after their Six Nations triumph. They haven't impressed against the top three teams and losses in all three of their previous meetings with New Zealand leaving them on the back foot ahead of this clash.
Moreover, the Blues have suffered defeats in four of their last five away Tests and turning the page in Christchurch against a New Zealand side that has won seven of their last eight home matches is unlikely. Our New Zealand vs France prediction : New Zealand –12.5 handicap points.
New Zealand vs France Alternative Predictions
Under 58.5 points
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
