Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Can Manchester City make a great comeback in this Champions League last 16 tie? The Citizens are home to Real Madrid in the second leg but trail 3-0 from last week's game in Spain. Read our match prediction below.
City are struggling for wins as present with only one win in their last four league and cup fixtures. More about their recent results in the form section of this preview. Pep Guardiola's side are in real danger of failing to reach the UCL quarter-finals and so could have done with a goal in Madrid last week. With Erling Haaland not quite firing at present, they have plenty of work to do on Tuesday evening.
Real Madrid have had another win since they beat City last week. They will be confident of setting up a quarter-final tie and almost certainly facing Bayern Munich who are 6-1 up in their tie with Atalanta. The Whites have had a few problems on the road this season but it would be a massive shock if they were to lose their 3-0 lead from the first leg and not reach the last eight.
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Manchester City v Real Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.44 | 5.4 | 6 |
|
|
1.46 | 5.7 | 5.15 |
|
|
1.45 | 5.5 | 5.45 |
|
|
1.44 | 5.75 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.45 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester City and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Manchester City vs Real Madrid match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/03/2026 between Manchester City and Real Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.58% for a win of Manchester City against Real Madrid with odds of 1.52 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester City vs Real Madrid is 12.04% with odds of 5.79 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.38% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Manchester City with odds of 6 at Stake.
Manchester City - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester City Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 53.58% | 1.52 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.51% | 1.17 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 53.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Manchester City/Manchester City | 29.92% | 2.15 at LSbet |
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Form
Manchester City and Real Madrid Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
2 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
2 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
17 Apr 2024 - Champions League
9 Apr 2024 - Champions League
Manchester City - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
There could still be silverware won by Manchester City this season but will it be from a second Champions League triumph? That's looking doubtful at present after a 3-0 loss in the first leg of this last 16 tie.
Since that defeat, the Blues have drawn 1-1 at West Ham, another blow to their Premier League title hopes. Only one of their last four matches has been won, a win in the FA Cup at Newcastle.
City are struggling to keep clean sheets.
City have won three of their four home Champions League games this season, but did lose to Bayer Leverkusen. Three of their last four games in all competitions have seen both teams score and in each of their last two home matches.
Real Madrid have beaten Elche 4-1 at home since the first leg. That win made it three wins in a row since a loss to Getafe at the start of this month. They have won three of their away UCL matches this season but lost at Liverpool and Benfica.
Both teams have scored in two of their last three away Champions League matches and both of their away games in all competitions. With this likely to be an open game, both teams scoring here looks a good bet.
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Manchester City against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
J. Trafford
DefenderR. Lewis
N. OReilly
N. Ake
J. Stones
M. Guehi
N. Gonzalez
A. Semenyo
Savinho
P. Foden
M. Kovacic
ForwardO. Marmoush
A. Lunin
D. Aguado
A. Carreras
D. Carvajal
D. Alaba
MidfielderE. Camavinga
Manuel Angel
C. Palacios
J. Cestero
ForwardG. Garcia
F. Mastantuono
K. Mbappe
Missing players
J. Gvardiol
F. Mendy
E. Militao
R. Asencio
MidfielderD. Ceballos
ForwardRodrygo
Manchester City & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Injuries aren't a major problem for Manchester City ahead of this Champions League second leg. Josko Gvardiol and Rico Lewis are on the injured list but it's the form of their best players that is the concern Pep Guardiola has.
Erling Haaland is not in great scoring form at present and City really need him to rediscover his usual scoring touch. The same goes for Phil Foden who has not been playing well for a while.
Semenyo to the rescue?
The arrival of Semenyo has been good news for City and he needs to continue scoring vital goals for the Premier League club. Matheus Nunes could play in this match and Mateo Kovacic is likely to feature after being on the subs bench at the weekend.
Kylian Mbappe is fit to play in this game. Jude Bellingham has made the trip to England but will not be playing. Their absence in the first leg didn't stop Real Madrid winning 3-0. They will also be without Ferland Mendy and Raul Asencio is a doubt.
The first half of this game will be so important as it was in the first leg. An early goal for City would put pressure on Real but if it's the away side who score, then the home team really are in deep trouble.
Most goals and assists
Manchester City
Real Madrid
E. Haaland
(8 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(15 Goals)
T. Reijnders
(3 Assists)
, 
J. Doku
(3 Assists)
Vinicius Junior
(6 Assists)
Manchester City - Real Madrid Key Points
- Three of the last four City games have seen both teams score.
- The last two City home games have seen both teams score.
- Both teams have scored in two of the last three Real Madrid away UCL games.
- Four of the last six games between these two clubs have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
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Our Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction
Three years ago, Manchester City beat Real Madrid 4-0 at home. A repeat of that scoreline would see them reach the quarter-finals but are they in the form to do that? City are falling further behind Arsenal in the Premier League and struggle to keep clean sheets.
The visitors will be going all out to get another goal and make life even more difficult for the English side. There have been some poor away performances by the Vikings but our main Manchester City v Real Madrid prediction is BTTS.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Alternative Predictions
Draw
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester City Real Madrid
| Manchester City vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 1.52 | 1.52 | 0% |
| Draw | 5.25 | 5.79 | +10.3% |
| Real Madrid wins | 4.9 | 6 | +22.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 65.8% and is now 65.8% (0.0%)
Manchester City vs Real Madrid - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
