Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
With the Premier League title hanging in the balance, supremacy could be seized or surrendered in Sunday’s summit showdown when Manchester City host Arsenal at the Etihad. The Citizens and the Gunners are second and first, respectively, in the league standings as we enter the final stretch. Check out our match prediction below!
Less than a month ago, Gooners were dreaming of a quadruple. However, with their domestic cup campaigns now over, familiar fears of another dreaded “bottle job” are beginning to resurface. With just six points separating the two sides - and Mikel Arteta’s team having played a game more - defeat in this weekend’s blockbuster could hand City control in the EPL title race.
Meanwhile, what once looked like a write-off campaign has, in the blink of an eye, become a possible treble-winning season for the Sky Blues. Indeed, writing the North Londoners out would be premature, but Pep Guardiola’s side have made a habit of thriving in these defining moments - can they do it again? Let’s get into the key stats and try to find out!
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Manchester City v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.92 | 3.65 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.6 | 4.12 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.6 | 4.12 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.87 | 3.55 | 4.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester City and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Manchester City vs Arsenal match is: Manchester City wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 19/04/2026 between Manchester City and Arsenal in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 43.59% for a win of Manchester City against Arsenal with odds of 1.94 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester City vs Arsenal is 24.71% with odds of 3.75 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.7% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Manchester City with odds of 4.3 at Tonybet.
Manchester City - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester City Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 43.59% | 1.94 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.08% | 2.05 at Betsson |
| Both Team To Score | 55.42% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Manchester City | 18.49% | 5 at Bet365 |
Manchester City vs Arsenal Form
Manchester City and Arsenal's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
85 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 |
|
2
|
78 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | +42 |
Manchester City and Arsenal Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
Manchester City vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
50 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
21 Sept 2025 - Premier League
2 Feb 2025 - Premier League
22 Sept 2024 - Premier League
31 Mar 2024 - Premier League
8 Oct 2023 - Premier League
Manchester City - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Manchester City cut the gap to the league leaders to six points last weekend with a convincing 3-0 victory over Chelsea, which extended their unbeaten run in the Prem to nine games (W6 D3).
However, despite beating the Gunners 2-0 in the Carabao Cup final last month, the Citizens have failed to win any of their last five league games against this opponent since April 2023 (D3 L2).
Notably, though, this week’s hosts are unbeaten in their last 14 home league games (W11 D3) since September, and have not lost to Arsenal at the Etihad in any competition in over a decade.
Man City have scored two or more goals in 12 of their last 14 EPL home matches!
Meanwhile, with the pressure mounting, Arsenal have been stuttering of late, and they were made to pay for their overly cautious approach last weekend, losing 2-1 to Bournemouth at home.
The Gunners held Sporting Lisbon to a nervy goalless draw in midweek to progress to the semi-final of the UCL, but they have now won only one of their last five matches across all competitions (D1 L3).
However, with 32 points from 16 games, the visitors have the out-and-out best away record in the top flight this season (W9 D5 L2) and are unbeaten in their last eight ahead of this one (W5 D3).
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Manchester City against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
J. Trafford
DefenderR. Ait-Nouri
J. Stones
N. Ake
P. Foden
T. Reijnders
N. Gonzalez
Savinho
O. Marmoush
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderB. White
C. Norgaard
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Dowman
ForwardG. Martinelli
V. Gyokeres
G. Jesus
L. Trossard
Missing players
R. Dias
J. Gvardiol
J. Timber
R. Calafiori
MidfielderM. Merino
ForwardB. Saka
Manchester City & Arsenal Squad Analysis
For City, the headline omission is that of Ruben Dias, who is still nursing an ankle injury and is unlikely to return in time. With Josko Gvardiol and John Stones also sidelined, Abdukodir Khusanov is expected to partner Marc Guehi in central defence.
Nico O’Reilly bagged a brace in the EFL Cup triumph over Arsenal last month, but the City academy graduate was withdrawn due to a hamstring issue in the second half against Chelsea and is a doubt for this one.
We’re picking out Rayan Cherki as one to watch this weekend. The Frenchman set up City’s first two goals at Stamford Bridge and is averaging an assist every 138.4 minutes in the Prem this season.
Erling Haaland has four goal contributions in his last three league home games against Arsenal!
The Gunners suffered an injury setback in their match against Sporting in midweek, with Noni Madueke forced off with a knee injury, which forced Arteta to turn to 16-year-old starlet Max Dowman.
If Madueke is unable to shake off the knock, it could leave the Gunners seriously shorthanded in attack, with Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard unlikely to feature here. Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are listed as doubts.
It has been no secret that Arsenal have relied heavily on set-pieces this season. Given that they have only scored twice from open play in their last five matches, dead-ball situations could be key here, so keep an eye on Declan Rice and Gabriel Magalhaes in this one.
Most goals and assists
Manchester City
Arsenal
E. Haaland
(27 Goals)
V. Gyokeres
(14 Goals)
R. Cherki
(12 Assists)
L. Trossard
(6 Assists)
,
M. Odegaard
(6 Assists)
Manchester City - Arsenal Key Points
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last nine league games.
- Manchester City are also unbeaten in their last 14 home league matches.
- Man City have scored two or more goals in 12 of their last 14 EPL home matches.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 10 home league games against Arsenal.
- Arsenal have only won one of their last five matches across all competitions.
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Our Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction
With one win in their last five games, the nerves have started to show for Arsenal in recent weeks, and it is not going to get any easier this weekend when they step out in front of a packed house at the Etihad Stadium.
Manchester City know what it takes to win titles from these types of situations, and they have the psychological edge, having beaten this opponent fairly comprehensively in the Carabao Cup final last month. The Citizens are unbeaten in 14 league games at home, and we feel they will come away with the victory in this one. Our Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction is Manchester City wins.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Manchester City over 1.5
Manchester City have scored two or more goals in each of their last three games ahead of this one, and have netted at least twice in 12 of their last 14 EPL home matches this season.
Erling Haaland to score or assist
Erling Haaland has four goal contributions in his last three league home games against Arsenal and netted City’s only goal in the reverse fixture back in September at the Emirates.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester City Arsenal
| Manchester City vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 2.75 | 1.94 | -29.5% |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.75 | +7.4% |
| Arsenal wins | 2.75 | 4.3 | +56.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 29.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 36.4% and is now 51.5% (15.2%)
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Manchester City vs Arsenal - FAQs
The Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal will take place on April 19 at 16:30 BST.
The Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal will be played at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester.
The Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
