Malta vs Poland Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup

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World - World Cup

Malta
17/11/2025 14:45
Poland

Prediction :

 

Poland to Win and Less Than 2.5 Goals

 
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 by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions

Poland need to win and swing the goal difference by a giant margin to have any chance of topping Group G in the UEFA section of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign. This final group stage match on Monday in Malta between the fourth-placed Reds and the second-placed White-Reds comes with our prediction of a win for Poland and under 2.5 goals scored.

Ahead of the final matchday, Malta’s five points (W1, D2, L4) see them two points above bottom-placed Lithuania and five points behind third-placed Finland. Poland’s 14 points (W4, D2, L1) saw them three points behind leaders the Netherlands (W5, D2), but the Dutch have a 13-goal difference to make up.

Malta won 1-0 away at Finland last week for their first win of this qualification campaign. It’s too late to even make a move up the standings in the section, but that result halted a two-game losing streak.

Home record hasn’t been any better, as Malta have just one win from their last five home games (W1, D1, L3).

Poland drew 1-1 at home against the Netherlands, which means they need to win here and expect the Dutch to lose while making up for the goal margin difference. Three wins from their last four matches mean the Poles are likely to go for full points here.

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The Best Betting Odds for Malta v Poland Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
11 5.5 1.29
Betfred
11 5 1.3
William Hill
9 4.75 1.3
Unibet
10.5 5.4 1.28
Betway
7.5 4.5 1.35
Check all Malta vs Poland odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Malta and Poland?

Our prediction for the Malta vs Poland match is: Poland to win and less than 2.5 goals scored.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/11/2025 between Malta and Poland in World Cup :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 23.24% for a win of Malta against Poland with odds of 13.9 at 22bet.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Malta vs Poland is 21.99% with odds of 5.98 at 22bet.
  • Our prediction model gives a 54.77% chance ⭐ for a win of Poland vs Malta with odds of 1.48 at Ladbrokes.

Malta - Poland Prediction and Best Odds:

Malta Poland Prediction Probability Odds
Poland wins 54.77% 1.48 at Ladbrokes
Under 2.5 54.58% 2.3 at William Hill
Both Team To Score 43.75% 2.2 at Unibet
Half-time / Full-time: Poland/Poland 27.75% 1.95 at Bet365

Malta vs Poland Form

Malta and Poland's standings in the World Cup

Teams Pts P W D L GD
2
Poland
Poland
17 8 5 2 1 7
4
Malta
Malta
5 8 1 2 5 -15

Malta and Poland Last Matches

Malta
Malta Last matches
L D W L L W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4 Total goals
50% BTTS
1 Goals scored
3 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Finland
0 :  1
Malta

12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
1 :  4
Bosnia Herzegovina

9 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  4
Netherlands

9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
3 :  1
San Marino

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Lithuania
1 :  1
Malta

10 Jun 2025 - World Cup

Netherlands
8 :  0
Malta
D L D W L L
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.67 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
1 :  4
Bosnia Herzegovina

9 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  4
Netherlands

9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
3 :  1
San Marino

7 Jun 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  0
Lithuania

21 Mar 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  1
Finland

19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Malta
0 :  0
Andorra
L W L L D W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.5 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Finland
0 :  1
Malta

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Lithuania
1 :  1
Malta

10 Jun 2025 - World Cup

Netherlands
8 :  0
Malta

24 Mar 2025 - World Cup

Poland
2 :  0
Malta

10 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Andorra
0 :  1
Malta

7 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Moldova
2 :  0
Malta
Poland
Poland Last matches
L D W W W D
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Poland
1 :  1
Netherlands

12 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Lithuania
0 :  2
Poland

9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies

Poland
1 :  0
New Zealand

7 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Poland
3 :  1
Finland

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Netherlands
1 :  1
Poland

10 Jun 2025 - World Cup

Finland
2 :  1
Poland
W W W W W D
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Poland
1 :  1
Netherlands

9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies

Poland
1 :  0
New Zealand

7 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Poland
3 :  1
Finland

6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies

Poland
2 :  0
Moldova

24 Mar 2025 - World Cup

Poland
2 :  0
Malta

21 Mar 2025 - World Cup

Poland
1 :  0
Lithuania
W L L L D W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

12 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Lithuania
0 :  2
Poland

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Netherlands
1 :  1
Poland

10 Jun 2025 - World Cup

Finland
2 :  1
Poland

15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Portugal
5 :  1
Poland

8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Croatia
1 :  0
Poland

5 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Scotland
2 :  3
Poland

Malta vs Poland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

24 Mar 2025 - World Cup

Poland
2 :  0
Malta

Malta against Poland Lineups: Starting 11

Malta

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
H. Bonello
22
Z. Muscat
5
K. Shaw
4
G. Mentz
3
R. Camenzuli
6
M. Guillaumier
23
A. Satariano
7
J. Mbong
10
T. Teuma
20
Y. Chouaref
11
I. Cardona
9
R. Lewandowski
21
N. Zalewski
10
P. Zielinski
17
B. Slisz
13
J. Kaminski
19
M. Skoras
14
J. Kiwior
4
T. Kedziora
3
P. Wisniewski
15
P. Wszolek
22
B. Dragowski

Formation : 5 - 4 - 1

Poland

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Malta
CD Huachipato Poland
Top Goalscorer
Malta T. Teuma (1 Goals) , 
Malta I. Cardona (1 Goals) , 
Malta J. Grech (1 Goals) , 
Malta A. Satariano (1 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Poland R. Lewandowski (4 Goals)

Malta - Poland Key Points

  1. Malta scored just two goals in their seven qualifying matches.
  2. Malta scored only one goal in their last six home matches in the World Cup qualifiers.
  3. Seven of Poland’s last nine matches produced under 2.5 goals.
  4. Poland conceded only five goals in their seven World Cup qualifiers.
  5. Seven of Poland’s last ten away matches produced fewer than three goals.
  6. Poland won the reverse fixture 2-0, which was the only head-to-head since 2003.
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Our Malta vs Poland Prediction

Malta are already eliminated from the qualification race, which isn’t a surprise looking at their historical record. They have only one win, but the biggest talking point is that they have scored just two goals so far. Poland have an outside chance to qualify directly for the World Cup, but that’s only a mathematical possibility. They need to win by at least a 14-goal margin, but even then Poland would need the Netherlands to lose.

This match may have few goals, and our Malta vs Poland prediction is Poland to win and less than 2.5 goals scored.

Prediction :

 

Poland to Win and Less Than 2.5 Goals

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Malta Poland

Malta vs Poland Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Malta wins 15 11 -26.7%
Draw 6.25 5.5 -12.0%
Poland wins 1.18 1.29 +9.3%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Poland is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 9.3% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 84.7% and is now 77.5% (-7.2%)

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Malta vs Poland Prediction