Malta vs Poland Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
World - World Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
Poland need to win and swing the goal difference by a giant margin to have any chance of topping Group G in the UEFA section of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign. This final group stage match on Monday in Malta between the fourth-placed Reds and the second-placed White-Reds comes with our prediction of a win for Poland and under 2.5 goals scored.
Ahead of the final matchday, Malta’s five points (W1, D2, L4) see them two points above bottom-placed Lithuania and five points behind third-placed Finland. Poland’s 14 points (W4, D2, L1) saw them three points behind leaders the Netherlands (W5, D2), but the Dutch have a 13-goal difference to make up.
Malta won 1-0 away at Finland last week for their first win of this qualification campaign. It’s too late to even make a move up the standings in the section, but that result halted a two-game losing streak.
Home record hasn’t been any better, as Malta have just one win from their last five home games (W1, D1, L3).
Poland drew 1-1 at home against the Netherlands, which means they need to win here and expect the Dutch to lose while making up for the goal margin difference. Three wins from their last four matches mean the Poles are likely to go for full points here.
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Malta v Poland Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9 | 5 | 1.33 |
|
|
13.9 | 5.98 | 1.13 |
|
|
10.5 | 5.45 | 1.28 |
|
|
10.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 |
|
|
11 | 5.5 | 1.29 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Malta and Poland?
Our prediction for the Malta vs Poland match is: Poland to win and less than 2.5 goals scored.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/11/2025 between Malta and Poland in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 23.24% for a win of Malta against Poland with odds of 13.9 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Malta vs Poland is 21.99% with odds of 5.98 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 54.77% chance ⭐ for a win of Poland vs Malta with odds of 1.35 at Betway.
Malta - Poland Prediction and Best Odds:
| Malta Poland Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Poland wins | 54.77% | 1.35 at Betway |
| Under 2.5 | 54.58% | 2.21 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 56.25% | 1.7 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Poland/Poland | 27.75% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
Malta vs Poland Form
Malta and Poland's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 |
|
4
|
5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 |
Malta and Poland Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
10 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Malta vs Poland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Malta against Poland Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
R. Al-Tumi
M. Debono
DefenderE. Pepe
A. Overend
M. Beerman
J. Borg
MidfielderB. Paiber
J. Corbalan
J. Grech
ForwardT. Buhagiar
P. Mbong
A. Zammit
K. Grabara
M. Kochalski
DefenderJ. Ziolkowski
M. Cash
K. Szczesniak
B. Bereszynski
K. Kozlowski
F. Rozga
B. Kapustka
K. Grosicki
K. Swiderski
A. Buksa
Most goals and assists
Malta
Poland
A. Satariano
(1 Goals)
,
J. Grech
(1 Goals)
,
I. Cardona
(1 Goals)
,
T. Teuma
(1 Goals)
R. Lewandowski
(8 Goals)
A. Overend
(1 Assists)
,
Y. Chouaref
(1 Assists)
S. Szymanski
(9 Assists)
Malta - Poland Key Points
- Malta scored just two goals in their seven qualifying matches.
- Malta scored only one goal in their last six home matches in the World Cup qualifiers.
- Seven of Poland’s last nine matches produced under 2.5 goals.
- Poland conceded only five goals in their seven World Cup qualifiers.
- Seven of Poland’s last ten away matches produced fewer than three goals.
- Poland won the reverse fixture 2-0, which was the only head-to-head since 2003.
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Our Malta vs Poland Prediction
Malta are already eliminated from the qualification race, which isn’t a surprise looking at their historical record. They have only one win, but the biggest talking point is that they have scored just two goals so far. Poland have an outside chance to qualify directly for the World Cup, but that’s only a mathematical possibility. They need to win by at least a 14-goal margin, but even then Poland would need the Netherlands to lose.
This match may have few goals, and our Malta vs Poland prediction is Poland to win and less than 2.5 goals scored.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Malta Poland
| Malta vs Poland | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malta wins | 12.7 | 13.9 | +9.4% |
| Draw | 5.27 | 5.98 | +13.5% |
| Poland wins | 1.19 | 1.35 | +13.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Poland is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 13.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 84.0% and is now 74.1% (-10.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
