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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
The already-eliminated Mali could complicate Madagascar's chances of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup when the sides meet in the Africa qualification campaign group I fixture on Sunday. This match in Bamako between the third-placed Eagles and the second-placed Barea comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals no.
With 15 points from nine matches (W4, D3, L2), Mali are out of contention to finish in the top two places. Madagascar are currently second (W6, D1, L2), trailing leaders Ghana by three points. They are also fourth in the list of runners-up of all groups, the last spot needed to advance to the second round of the qualifiers.
Mali won 2-0 away at Chad for a second win in their last three qualifiers (W2, L1). Their defensive record remains the best in the group, with only five goals conceded so far.
Playing at home makes Mali even more dangerous, as they haven't conceded in their last four home matches (W3, D1). That's bad news for Madagascar, who need a win to allay fears of missing out on qualification.
A 2-1 away win at Comoros this week made it three wins in a row, each time scoring 2+ goals. Their tally of 16 goals in this campaign is second only to the leaders, Ghana, and they will hope to extend that record here.
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The Best Betting Odds for Mali v Madagascar Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.45 | 4.1 | 8 |
|
|
1.36 | 4.2 | 9.5 |
|
|
1.36 | 3.8 | 9.5 |
|
|
1.45 | 4.2 | 7 |
|
|
1.35 | 3.85 | 7.25 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Mali and Madagascar?
Our prediction for the Mali vs Madagascar match is: both teams to score no.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/10/2025 between Mali and Madagascar in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.55% for a win of Mali against Madagascar with odds of 1.45 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mali vs Madagascar is 24.63% with odds of 4.33 at Bwin.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.83% chance ⭐ for a win of Madagascar vs Mali with odds of 10.6 at 22bet.
Mali vs Madagascar Form
Mali and Madagascar's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
|
3
|
15 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Mali and Madagascar Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sep 2025 - World Cup
4 Sep 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Sep 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
6 Sep 2024 - AFCON
6 Jun 2024 - World Cup
3 Feb 2024 - AFCON
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sep 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sep 2025 - World Cup
4 Sep 2025 - World Cup
30 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Sep 2025 - World Cup
4 Sep 2025 - World Cup
30 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
16 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
9 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
Mali vs Madagascar Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
11 Jun 2024 - World Cup
Missing players
M. Diarra
MidfielderA. Haidara
Mali - Madagascar Key Points
- Mali’s last 13 matches have seen at least one team fail to score goals.
- In their last six World Cup qualifiers in this campaign, Mali have seen one or both teams fail to score goals.
- Mali kept a clean sheet in their last four home matches in all competitions.
- Madagascar have conceded an average of fewer than one goal in this qualification campaign.
- The reverse fixture ended in a 0-0 draw.
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Our Mali vs Madagascar Prediction
Mali are already eliminated from the qualification race, but this match has huge stakes for Madagascar. Although they are mathematically in the race to finish top of the group, it's the second spot they are realistically targeting. To be among the top four runners-up will fetch a ticket to the second round, and Madagascar need a win to boost their chances. Mali's impressive home record Madagascar's hopes, although the visitors hope to rise to the occasion.
This could be a tight game, and our Mali vs Madagascar prediction is both teams to score no.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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