Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreño-Busta Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Estoril Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
Eighth seed Pablo Carreno Busta is attempting to reach his first ATP Tour quarter-final of the year. In round two of the Estoril Open, he faces unseeded Luca Van Assche. Busta reached round four at Roland Garros this year and our prediction is he will be the winner here.
Whoever wins will take on either top seed Andrey Rublev or lucky loser Timofey Skatov in the last eight.
35-year-old Busta was 65th in the latest rankings but has been as high as tenth. He has won 18 of his 24 clay court matches played in 2026. The Spaniard has won one clay court Challenger Tour title this year and reached one other final. He won this title in 2017.
He beat Vilius Gaubas in round one 6-1 6-3.
Luca Van Assche was 13 places below his opponent in the latest rankings. This is his second appearance in Estoril after a second round loss three years ago. The Frenchman has a 14-10 record on clay this year with one Challenger Tour title won.
A win here will take him into his second ATP Tour clay court quarter-final of the year. He leads Busta 1-0 in previous meetings but that match was played on a hard court. The 22-year-old beat Federico Ferreira Silva in three sets in round one, that lasted 206 minutes.
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Luca Van Assche v Pablo Carreño-Busta Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
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2.55 | 1.47 |
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2.66 | 1.48 |
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2.66 | 1.48 |
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2.66 | 1.48 |
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2.66 | 1.48 |
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Who will win the Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreño-Busta Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreño-Busta match is: Pablo Carreno Busta wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreño-Busta game on 23/07/2026 of the current ATP Estoril Open season:
- Luca Van Assche has a 56.83% chance to win against Pablo Carreño-Busta according to Shangrila ⭐ with the odds of 2.67.
- Pablo Carreño-Busta has a 43.17% probability of winning facing Luca Van Assche ⭐ with odds of 1.5 at Bet365.
Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreño-Busta Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Luca Van Assche has a 56.83 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Luca Van Assche | 56.83 % |
| Pablo Carreño-Busta | 43.17 % |
Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreño-Busta Form
Luca Van Assche and Pablo Carreño-Busta Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
20 Jul 2026 - ATP Estoril Open
15 Jul 2026 - ATP Umag Open
13 Jul 2026 - ATP Umag Open
28 May 2026 - ATP French Open
25 May 2026 - ATP French Open
16 May 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
21 Jul 2026 - ATP Estoril Open
15 Jul 2026 - ATP Umag Open
14 Jul 2026 - ATP Umag Open
1 Jul 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
31 May 2026 - ATP French Open
29 May 2026 - ATP French Open
Luca Van Assche - Pablo Carreño-Busta Key Points
- Busta has an 18-6 record on clay this year.
- Busta reached round four at Roland Garros earlier this summer.
- Busta is a former Estoril champion.
- Van Assche had to go to three sets to win his first round match.
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Our Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreño-Busta Prediction
Pablo Carreno Busta has twice reached the final in Estoril and won the title nine years ago. This year has seen him win one Challenger Tour clay court title this year. His best run on the ATP Tour saw him reach round four at Roland Garros.
Luca Van Assche has also won one clay court Challenger Tour title this year. Round one was a real struggle as he took over three hours to win. Our Luca Van Assche v Pablo Carreno Busta prediction is Pablo Carreno Busta wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.