Italy vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Tips - Nations Championship
Rugby Union - Nations Championship
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Nations Championship Predictions
Reigning world champions South Africa will look to continue their strong start to the Nations Championship when they travel to face World No. 11 Italy in Round 4 at Allianz Stadium on Saturday. The World No. 1 have won all three of their matches in the competition and are favorites here against an Italy side that has suffered heavy defeats in its three outings – a factor we have considered in our prediction.
Italy's Nations Championship campaign is not going as planned. The Blues sit bottom of the Northern Conference standings with 0 points after three matches, scoring just 37 points and conceding 131. The last time they defeated South Africa was in Florence in 2016 when they pipped the visitors 20–18. However, the prospect of repeating that feat looks unlikely for Gonzalo Quesada's team, with a significant gap in form and quality between the two sides.
South Africa have left no holds barred in their Nations Championship campaign. The world champions have collected the maximum 15 points from their opening three games, scoring 130 points and conceding 49 to go top of the Southern Conference standings.
While arriving here on the back of a shock defeat to Australia in Perth, they haven't lost two matches in a row since 2022 and have dominated recent meetings with Australia. Continue reading as we delve deeper into both teams' chances.
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Italy v South Africa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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21.00 | 50.00 | 1.02 |
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20.00 | 49.00 | 1.02 |
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20.00 | 49.00 | 1.02 |
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20.00 | 49.00 | 1.02 |
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17.00 | 51.00 | 1.01 |
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Italy vs South Africa Form
Italy and South Africa Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
18 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
11 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
4 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
7 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
18 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
11 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
4 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
14 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
27 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
12 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
5 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
29 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
22 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
8 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
12 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
5 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
29 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
22 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
18 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
11 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
27 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
8 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
29 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
Italy vs South Africa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
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15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
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5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
19 Nov 2022 - Test Matches
4 Oct 2019 - Rugby World Cup
Italy - South Africa: Form Analysis
Italy's Nations Championship woes began effectively in their first match against lower-ranked Japan in Tokyo. The Blues entered the contest as favorites, but fell by 17 points to the World No. 12. They fared even worse in their second outing, suffering a heavy 30-point defeat to New Zealand.
Their struggles continued unabated against Australia in the third round before the break. The Gonzalo Quesada-led team recorded their worst performance against the Wallabies, falling 57–10 and sinking to the bottom of the Northern Conference standings.
Italy have scored the fewest points in the Nations Championship, managing just 37, while conceding the second-highest tally of 131 points
Meanwhile, South Africa remains a team to beat in the competition so far. The Springboks kicked off their campaign with a convincing 24-point victory over World No. 5 England, eased past Scotland by 14 points, and rounded off the first phase with a 43–0 shutout victory over Wales.
Notably, Rassie Erasmus' team fell 38–42 to Australia in their last Test but have won seven of their last eight away matches, including all four Tests on their end-of-year European tour. They have also won their last six Tests against Italy by emphatic margins.
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Players list
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Italy & South Africa Squad Analysis
Piling injury issues has forced Gonzalo Quesada to make 10 changes to the Italy squad ahead of the match. Leading the list of key absentees are captain Michele Lamaro, Ignacio Brex, Tommaso Menoncello, and Sebastian Negri.
Hooker Giacomo Nicotera has been lined up to captain the side in Michele Lamaro's absence. He will start in the front row alongside Simone Ferrari and Muhamed Hasa. Flanker Samuele Locatelli, who is set for his international debut, slots into the back row alongside Alessandro Ortombina and Lorenzo Cannone, replacing Lamaro.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has the most international points (195) in South Africa's starting XV against Italy
Meanwhile, Rassie Erasmus has named an experienced squad likely to make things difficult for Italy's injury-ravaged setup. Regular captain and 107-capped flanker Siya Kolisi has made the squad with his leadership and defensive work rate expected to strengthen the visitors' forward pack. He starts in the back row alongside Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese.
Malcolm Marx has scored 145 international points in 94 caps for the Springboks, with his scrummaging strength and breakdown expertise likely to help South Africa's dominance up front. He starts at hooker alongside Ox Nche and Thomas du Toit.
Italy - South Africa Key Points
- Italy have lost all three of their Nations Championship matches by wide margins.
- Italy have lost their last six matches against South Africa by emphatic margins.
- South Africa have won all three of their Nations Championship matches.
- South Africa have won seven of their last eight away matches, including all four Tests on their end-of-the-year European tour.
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Our Italy vs South Africa Prediction
Italy's run in the first phase of the Nations Championship has been nothing short of a disaster. While the hosts will look to stage a stronger performance in their first home match of the competition, South Africa are arguably the toughest opponents they could face.
Notably, the hosts haven't only struggled for results in the competition, but have found it hard to keep opponents at bay. With injuries further widening the gap in quality between the two sides, we expect South Africa to win by a blowout margin. Our Italy vs South Africa prediction : South Africa –29.5 handicap.
Italy vs South Africa Alternative Predictions
Over 62.5 points
South Africa have been prolific offensively in the competition. Both teams have also seen two of their three Nations Championship matches finish with over 62 total points.
Malcolm Marx to score a try anytime
Malcolm Marx has the most tries in South Africa's starting XV with 29 to his name, and will be out to continue his prolific scoring form for the Springboks.
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Italy vs South Africa - FAQs
The Italy vs South Africa match is scheduled for Saturday, 7 November 2026, at 11:40 GMT.
The match will be played at Allianz Stadium in Turin, Italy.
UK fans will be able to watch the match on ITVX, while viewers across Africa can follow the action on SuperSport Rugby and SuperSport Grandstand.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
