Wales vs Japan Prediction & Betting Tips - Rugby Nations Championship
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by Steve Ashfield | in Rugby Predictions
Wales resume the Rugby Nations Championship sitting fifth in the northern hemisphere table after three games. This weekend will see them host Japan who are fifth in the southern hemisphere table. Wales have won three of their last four games against Japan and our prediction is they will win on a -10.5 handicap.
It's been another difficult year for Wales but they did at least win a match in this year's Six Nations. The win over Italy didn't prevent them from again finishing bottom of the table. They are fifth in this competition with one win, but only have five points from their three fixtures. After this match, the Dragons take on New Zealand and Australia, both at home.
Japan also needs some wins to get a better finish in the final table. They have only recorded one win from their three games so far and regularly struggle against the tier 1 sides. Still to play in this tournament are away games at England and Scotland, so a tough few weeks are on the way for them.
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Wales - Japan: Form Analysis
Wales are five points adrift of fourth place in the northern hemisphere table. They played three games in July of this year and only won one of them. Their opening fixture saw them win away at Fiji who have been beaten in all their games so far in this tournament.
The Welsh side were unable to build on that opening victory. They lost to Argentina and then failed to score in a 43-0 away loss to world champions South Africa.
Wales are showing some signs of recovery on home soil.
Earlier this year, they finished fifth in the Six Nations Championship, Their only win came at home to Italy.by 14 points, but only lost to Scotland by three. This is their first match since those earlier Rugby Nations Championship games. They beat Japan at home last year.
Japan also began this tournament with a win as they beat Italy at home. It's gone downhill since then though with a 36-20 home loss to Ireland and that was followed by a 42-15 loss to France. They have won the Pacific Cup tournament since then, but against the top-tier sides, they struggle for wins.
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Wales & Japan Squad Analysis
Wales have tough games against New Zealand and Australia to play after this match against Japan.Max Llewellyn comes into the side and will form a centre partnership with Eddie James. Both weigh over 16 stones so they will form a formidable partnership that will hopefully pay dividends.
At fly-half will be Sam Costelow rather than Dan Edwards. The good news for the Welsh squad is that Dafydd Jenkins has overcome his knee injury and will play in this Rugby Nations Championship match. Of their three remaining fixtures, this is easily the most winnable. They will want to build on their home Six Nations victory over Italy.
Kitahara makes his debut.
Japan will also see this as their best opportunity to return home with a victory. Uncapped Riky Kitahara will be making his debut for them.
He will be part of a centre partnership with Dylan Riley and Samisoni Tua. While they were victorious in the Pacific Cup, a win in this stage of the tournament would be good news for the Japanese side as former England coach Eddie Jones returns to the UK.
Wales - Japan Key Points
- Wales have won three of their last four matches against Japan.
- Wales won their last home game by 14 points.
- Japan have lost four of their last six away games
- Ten of Japan's last 11 away losses have been by at least 11 points.
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Our Wales vs Japan Prediction
Wales have shown some signs of improvement in recent home games. They threw away a lead against Scotland, but then had a comfortable home victory over Italy, both games being played in the Six Nations. They won one of their three summer games in this tournament.
Japan won the Pacific Cup recently, but have also lost two of their three matches in this tournament. Their wins tend to come against sides such as Fiji, Tonga, Georgia and the USA. With Wales having home advantage, our main Wales v Japan prediction is Wales wins on a -10.5 handicap.
Wales vs Japan Alternative Predictions
Wales wins
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