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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
Ukraine’s search for their first win of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification UEFA Group D campaign takes them to Iceland on matchday three on Friday. This match between the second-placed ‘Our Boys’ and the third-placed ‘The Blue and Yellow’ comes with our prediction of over 2.5.
Iceland (W1, L1) are three points behind leaders France, while Ukraine (D1, L1) start two points behind their hosts. France and Azerbaijan are the other two teams in the section.
A 5-0 thumping home win over Azerbaijan on matchday one saw Iceland start their campaign on a high. They immediately lost 2-1 away at France on matchday two, which was their fifth defeat over the last seven matches (W5, L2), and Iceland will hope to become consistent.
The hosts have qualified only once before for the World Cup, back in 2018, but need to gun for a second consecutive home win for the first time since October 2023.
Ukraine are winless in this campaign, losing 2-0 to France on matchday one and then drawing 1-1 away at Azerbaijan. The visitors need to improve, as they lost three of the recent five games (W1, D1, L3).
This could be vital to improve their chances of ending a 20-year wait for playing in a World Cup.
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The Best Betting Odds for Iceland v Ukraine Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
|
|
3 | 3.1 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.1 | 2.15 |
|
|
3 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Iceland and Ukraine?
Our prediction for the Iceland vs Ukraine match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/10/2025 between Iceland and Ukraine in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.79% for a win of Iceland against Ukraine with odds of 3.4 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Iceland vs Ukraine is 22.54% with odds of 3.4 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 37.67% chance ⭐ for a win of Ukraine vs Iceland with odds of 2.46 at Melbet.
Iceland - Ukraine Prediction and Best Odds:
| Iceland Ukraine Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Iceland wins | 39.79% | 3.4 at 22bet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.48% | 2.29 at 22bet |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time : Iceland/Iceland | 16.69% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Iceland vs Ukraine Form
Iceland and Ukraine's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
|
3
|
7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Iceland and Ukraine Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Oct 2023 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
26 Jun 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Iceland vs Ukraine Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
5 Sept 2017 - World Cup
Iceland against Ukraine Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Most goals and assists
Iceland
Ukraine
A. Gudmundsson
(4 Goals)
O. Gutsuliak
(3 Goals)
,
R. Malinovskyi
(3 Goals)
Iceland - Ukraine Key Points
- In five of Iceland’s last seven matches, both teams scored goals.
- Iceland failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of their last 11 matches in all competitions and friendlies.
- Seven of Ukraine’s last nine games have seen both teams score goals.
- Ukraine kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 matches in all competitions and friendlies.
- The last fixture between these sides ended in a 2-1 win for Ukraine in March 2024.
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Our Iceland vs Ukraine Prediction
Iceland may have lost to France last time out, but their heavy win over Azerbaijan suggests they can be a dangerous side. Going back to their performances in the UEFA Nations League, Iceland’s matches have been full of goals, and that could once again be the case here. Ukraine also lost to France, but their draw against Azerbaijan gives hope to their fans that they can pick up their first victory of the campaign.
Looking at the recent form of these teams as well as the latest result in their last game, our Iceland vs Ukraine prediction is over 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Iceland Ukraine
| Iceland vs Ukraine | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland wins | 3.2 | 3.3 | +3.1% |
| Draw | 3.2 | 3.3 | +3.1% |
| Ukraine wins | 2.3 | 2.2 | -4.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Iceland is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 31.3% and is now 30.3% (-0.9%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Iceland vs. Ukraine game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Iceland and Ukraine? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's World Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
