Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Europa League Predictions
In an interesting match-up between two underdogs, Croatia’s Hajduk Split will take on Cypriot club Pafos in the second qualifying round of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League (UEL). This first-leg fixture on Thursday at Stadion Poljud between the Whites and the Cypriots is likely to be a low-scoring affair, and our match prediction favours less than 2.5 goals.
The winner of this two-legged tie will advance to the Main Path third qualifying round to face Red Bull Salzburg, while the loser will be transferred to the Conference League play-off round.
Hajduk lost 2-1 away at Zilina in the second leg of the previous round of qualification, but a 2-0 win in the first leg was enough to achieve progress. That victory was preceded by three consecutive wins in friendlies, so the Croats will hope to get back to winning ways here. Their hopes get a boost from a run of three wins in as many home games in Europe.
Pafos are yet to play a competitive game this season and were beaten in their last two friendlies. Those results made it just one win in their four preparatory games in the off-season (D1, L2), as the Cypriots look to improve on their recent away form in Europe. Pafos have failed to win their last four away games in Europe (D2, L2).
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Hajduk Split v Pafos FC Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.33 | 3.14 | 3.29 |
|
|
2.09 | 3.14 | 3.9 |
|
|
2.07 | 3.3 | 3.55 |
|
|
2.33 | 3.14 | 3.28 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Hajduk Split and Pafos FC?
Our prediction for the Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/07/2026 between Hajduk Split and Pafos FC in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.12% for a win of Hajduk Split against Pafos FC with odds of 2.33 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC is 25.02% with odds of 3.3 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 20.86% chance ⭐ for a win of Pafos FC vs Hajduk Split with odds of 3.9 at Melbet.
Hajduk Split - Pafos FC Prediction and Best Odds:
| Hajduk Split Pafos FC Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hajduk Split wins | 54.12% | 2.33 at 1xbet |
| Under 2.5 | 50.12% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 54.76% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Hajduk Split/Hajduk Split | 35.04% | 3.55 at Shangrila |
Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC Form
Hajduk Split and Pafos FC Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jul 2026 - Europa League
9 Jul 2026 - Europa League
1 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
23 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
22 May 2026 - Prva HNL
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jul 2026 - Europa League
27 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
22 May 2026 - Prva HNL
3 May 2026 - Prva HNL
21 Apr 2026 - Prva HNL
12 Apr 2026 - Prva HNL
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jul 2026 - Europa League
1 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
23 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
16 May 2026 - Prva HNL
9 May 2026 - Prva HNL
26 Apr 2026 - Prva HNL
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
29 May 2026 - Cyprus Cup
22 May 2026 - Cypriot First Division
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
22 May 2026 - Cypriot First Division
10 May 2026 - Cypriot First Division
6 May 2026 - Cypriot First Division
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
29 May 2026 - Cyprus Cup
16 May 2026 - Cypriot First Division
3 May 2026 - Cypriot First Division
26 Apr 2026 - Cypriot First Division
14 Apr 2026 - Cypriot First Division
Players list
T. Silic
DefenderM. Acapandie
S. Hrgovic
D. Melnjak
A. Van Hoorenbeeck
D. Maresic
MidfielderR. Pukstas
A. Pajaziti
D. De Almeida Leite
ForwardR. Brajkovic
M. Sego
R. Majecki
DefenderN. Ioannou
D. Goldar
S. Mmaee
D. Luiz
MidfielderPepe
I. Sunjic
V. Dragomir
ForwardBiel
Lele
Jaja
Substitutes
I. Ivusic
D. Stipica
DefenderR. Raci
N. Skoko
M. Skelin
L. Hodak
MidfielderA. Del Moral
A. Guram
A. Sutalo
E. Brruti
ForwardM. Livaja
A. Sanyang
P. Petrou
M. Papastylianou
DefenderM. Kais
K. Ioannou
MidfielderM. Mammadov
A. Soares Carvalho Brito
C. Efzona
Guga
K. Sema
D. Quina
G. Michael
Bruno
Hajduk Split - Pafos FC Key Points
- Three of Hajduk’s last four games have produced under 2.5 goals.
- Seven of Hajduk’s last ten matches in European football saw fewer than three goals.
- Six of Pafos’ last nine games have seen two or fewer goals scored.
- In six of their last seven away matches in Europe, Pafos saw two or fewer goals scored.
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Our Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC Prediction
Hajduk are back in the Europa League for the first time since 2020-21, while their last foray into the group stages of this competition was back in 2010-11. Pafos have made a name for themselves in last season’s UEFA Champions League, although they have failed to score in their four away matches in that competition, which underlined their struggles in Europe’s top tier.
The low-scoring pattern has been a trend for both teams, and that could continue in this fixture, so our Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Hajduk Split Pafos FC
| Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hajduk Split wins | 2.48 | 2.33 | -6.0% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.3 | +6.5% |
| Pafos FC wins | 2.8 | 3.9 | +39.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Hajduk Split is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.3% and is now 42.9% (2.6%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
