France vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Tips - Nations Championship
Rugby Union - Nations Championship
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by Steve Ashfield | in Nations Championship Predictions
This could well be a dress rehearsal for the final of the Rugby Nations Championship. France are top of the northern hemisphere table with two group games remaining. This weekend sees host the southern hemisphere leaders South Africa. The Springboks have beaten France in nine of their last ten matches and our prediction is South Africa wins on a -3.5 handicap.
France had an easy home win over Fiji last weekend, needless to say this match against the world champions is a far tougher task. Les Bleus lead their group by two points from England. After this match, their final fixture is at home to Argentina.
South Africa also had a comfortable win in Italy and are in a real battle with New Zealand in the southern hemisphere group. They are level on points with them and their final fixture is also a tough game away in Ireland. Of their last nine wins over France, six have been by at least four points.
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France v South Africa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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3.64 | 20.00 | 1.31 |
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3.64 | 20.00 | 1.31 |
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3.64 | 20.00 | 1.31 |
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3.40 | 26.00 | 1.30 |
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3.30 | 20.00 | 1.33 |
|
Our editorial team's top-confidence betting tip, every day.
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France vs South Africa Form
France and South Africa Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
7 Nov 2026 - Nations Championship
18 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
11 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
4 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
7 Nov 2026 - Nations Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
5 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
18 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
11 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
4 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
15 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
7 Nov 2026 - Nations Championship
27 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
12 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
5 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
29 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
22 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
12 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
5 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
29 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
22 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
18 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
11 Jul 2026 - Nations Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
7 Nov 2026 - Nations Championship
27 Sept 2026 - Test Matches
8 Aug 2026 - Test Matches
29 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
France vs South Africa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
12 Nov 2022 - Test Matches
France - South Africa: Form Analysis
France have won three of their four matches in the northern hemisphere table. The first three matches were played in July and Les Bleus got off to a poor start with a 34-32 away loss to New Zealand. Their next two games were against Australia and Japan and were won by a combined winning margin of 43 points.
The Rugby Nations Championship resumed last week and France stayed top of the table with a 54-17 home win over Fiji. The 2026 Six Nations champions have won each of their last six home games. Their last home loss was inflicted by the Springboks in 2025 and by a 17-point margin.
100 percent record for the Springboks.
South Africa and New Zealand are dominating the southern hemisphere table. They both have 20 points, 12 clear of the rest of the others. The Springboks have won all four of their matches in this tournament. July saw them defeat England, Scotland and Wales with over 40 points scored in each victory.
That trend continued last week when South Africa went to Italy and came away with a 66-7 victory. They have four of their last five games. The only loss came in September in a 42-38 away defeat in Australia. They have won four of their last five away games against France.
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France & South Africa Squad Analysis
Two games remain in the group stages of this new Rugby Nations Championship. France top the northern hemisphere table, but face the world champions in their penultimate fixture. With Argentina (who lost heavily to England last week) as their final opponents, their chances of making it to the title decider are still strong.
Injury problems for France.
Their recent record against the Springboks is not good with no home win over them since 2022. They have injury problems ahead of this match with key players such as Hastoy, Ntamack, Boudehent and Ramos all out injured for this match. A physical match looks very likely here and it could be a high-scoring one too.
South Africa also top their group, so this might just be the final that we'll see at Twickenham on November 29. The Springboks have won all four of their matches so far with a points difference of +140. They have a tendency to rotate their deep squad.
That's not the case here. Just one change has been made to the starting line-up from last week with Luow coming in for du Toit. There's a single change to the line-up on the bench too as Cobus Reinach replaces Grant Williams for this match against France.
France - South Africa Key Points
- France haven't beaten South Africa at home since 2022.
- South Africa have won all four of their matches in this tournament.
- Each of South Africa's last six wins has been by at least four points.
- Six of South Africa's last nine wins over France were by more than 3.5 points.
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Our France vs South Africa Prediction
A win for either side will see them close to clinching their place in the Rugby Nations Championship final. Both France and South Africa are top of their groups with two games to play before the final stage of this tournament. France has several injury problems for this match.
South Africa have won all four of their matches in this tournament and all by wide-margins. They have a good record against France and looking at their team selection, they are really out to lift the trophy. Our main France v South Africa prediction is South Africa wins on a -3.5 handicap.
France vs South Africa Alternative Predictions
South Africa wins
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France vs South Africa - FAQs
All the remaining matches are being played in the northern hemisphere. This is being played at the Stade de France in Paris.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
