World - World Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
Italy will look to continue their winning momentum when they travel to Estonia for a matchday seven fixture in the 2026 FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification campaign. This Group I match on Saturday in Tallinn between the fourth-placed Blueshirts and the second-placed Gli Azzurri comes with our prediction of over 3.5.
Ahead of this round, Estonia’s three points put them fourth (W1, L4) and six points outside the top two spots. Italy’s nine points (W3, L1) keep them six points adrift of leaders Norway, although with a game in hand. Only the group winners qualify directly for the World Cup, while the runners-up advance to the play-offs.
Estonia had a 0-0 draw against Andorra in an international friendly this week, halting their three-game losing streak. The Estonians lost 5-0 away to Italy in their last qualifier, which was preceded by defeats to Norway and Israel.
With the Blueshirts struggling to score, this could be a challenge for them to stay alive in the competition, as they can at best qualify second.
Italy won 5-4 away at Israel in their last match, making it three wins in a row, preceded by victories against Estonia and Moldova. Four wins from their last six away matches, losing just once, is another indicator of their strengths, and they could look to extend that run.
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The Best Betting Odds for Estonia v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
29 | 15 | 1.05 |
|
|
34 | 12 | 1.06 |
|
|
36 | 11 | 1.06 |
|
|
21 | 10 | 1.06 |
|
|
41 | 12.5 | 1.04 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Estonia and Italy?
Our prediction for the Estonia vs Italy match is: over 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/10/2025 between Estonia and Italy in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 13.83% for a win of Estonia against Italy with odds of 41 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Estonia vs Italy is 11.42% with odds of 18.3 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 74.75% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs Estonia with odds of 1.09 at Shangrila.
Estonia - Italy Prediction and Best Odds:
| Estonia Italy Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 74.75% | 1.09 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.25% | 1.44 at Betfred |
| Both Team To Score | 43.75% | 2.8 at Unibet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Italy | 33.57% | 5 at Betfair |
Estonia vs Italy Form
Estonia and Italy's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
18 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
|
4
|
4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 |
Estonia and Italy Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Estonia vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
11 Nov 2020 - International Friendlies
Estonia against Italy Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Most goals and assists
Estonia
Italy
M. Kait
(3 Goals)
M. Retegui
(5 Goals)
Estonia - Italy Key Points
- Italy scored 12 goals in their last three qualifiers.
- Six of Italy’s last ten matches have produced over 3.5 goals.
- Italy won their last two matches against Estonia 5-0 (in September 2025) and 4-0 (in 2020).
- In three of Estonia’s last five matches, there have been at least four goals scored.
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Our Estonia vs Italy Prediction
Italy seem to have revived their World Cup campaign with consecutive wins, the last being a crazy nine-goal thriller. Gennaro Gattuso’s men can’t afford to lose this match, especially as Israel are level on points, although the Italians have a game in hand. Estonia can only target a second-place finish, and a win here will set things up for an interesting finish in the group. That may need a huge improvement, looking at their recent scoring record.
This match promises to be full of goals, much like the reverse fixture, and our Estonia vs Italy prediction is over 3.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Estonia Italy
| Estonia vs Italy | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia wins | 19 | 29 | +52.6% |
| Draw | 9 | 15 | +66.7% |
| Italy wins | 1.11 | 1.05 | -5.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Italy is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 90.1% and is now 95.2% (5.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Estonia vs. Italy game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Estonia and Italy? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's World Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
