England - Premier League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
The Premier League season resumes after the international break. 18th placed Burnley are home to Leeds United who are three places and four points above them in the table. Can Burnley get a vital home win? Here's our match prediction.
Both of these clubs were promoted from the Championship last season. They are also used to being promoted and then relegated back down to the Championship. Burnley are already in danger of seeing that happen again with just one of their first seven league games being won. It's still early in the season but results at Turf Moor are going to be so important for Burnley and a loss here would be a major disappointment.
Leeds are at least outside of the relegation zone. They'd be glad if they ended the season in their current 15th position. As you'll read in the form section of this preview, United have at least won a couple of league fixtures and extending the gap between them and their opponents would be greatly appreciated.
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The Best Betting Odds for Burnley v Leeds Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.6 | 3.25 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.25 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.55 | 3.2 | 2.16 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Leeds match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/10/2025 between Burnley and Leeds in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.24% for a win of Burnley against Leeds with odds of 3.75 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Leeds is 28.29% with odds of 3.25 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.47% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Burnley with odds of 2.3 at Bwin.
Burnley - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Burnley Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 42.47% | 2.3 at Bwin |
| Under 2.5 | 52.84% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 52.92% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Leeds | 25.38% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Burnley vs Leeds Form
Burnley and Leeds's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16
|
11 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 |
|
17
|
10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 |
Burnley and Leeds Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
23 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
14 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
14 Sept 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
13 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
18 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
13 Sept 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 May 2025 - Championship
Burnley vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Jan 2025 - Championship
14 Sept 2024 - Championship
2 Jan 2022 - Premier League
29 Aug 2021 - Premier League
15 May 2021 - Premier League
27 Dec 2020 - Premier League
Burnley - Leeds: Form Analysis
Burnley have earned just four points from their first seven Premier League games of the season. Only one match has been won and that was a home victory over another promoted side, Sunderland, in late August.
Since that win, the Clarets have played five league matches and earned just one point.
Home form is vital for Burnley.
Late goals cost them points against Manchester United and Liverpool. Home form has produced four points from three games. Both teams have scored in each of their last four fixtures. They begin the weekend a point from safety.
Leeds United have made a steady start to life back in the Premier League. A return of eight points from seven games sees them four points above the drop zone. Two league games have been won and one was on the road at struggling Wolves.
Their other two away league games were both lost. Their most recent league game was a 2-1 home loss to Tottenham. Each of their last three Premier League games have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
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Burnley against Leeds Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
C. Roberts
J. Beyer
ForwardZ. Amdouni
L. Foster
G. Wilfried
H. Gray
N. Okafor
Burnley & Leeds Squad Analysis
Burnley have some injury problems ahead of this Premier League game at home to Leeds United. Zeki Amdouni is doubtful due to ligament problems. Also struggling with injury at present are both Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer.
Thankfully there's no problems with Jaidon Anthony and that's vitally important for Burnley. They have only scored seven league goals this season and he's scored four of them. Burnley will be hoping he can add to that total this weekend.
Who will win the midfield battle?
Controlling midfield is going to be a key factor in this match. Florentino Luis has been in good form for Burnley this season. His battle with Sean Longstaff could well decide whether Burnley can secure a second home league win of the season.
Like their opponents, Leeds United have only scored seven league goals this season. Three of those have come on the road, all in their win at Wolves. Noah Okafor is their top league scorer with two goals this season.
A key signing in the summer was striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin. He's only scored one league goal this season but if he can settle in and keep himself injury-free (the latter being a big ask), then he will be very influential for United.
Leeds have injury doubts over Daniel James, Lucas Perri and Wilfried Gnonto.
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Leeds
Z. Flemming
(4 Goals)
, 
J. Anthony
(4 Goals)
J. Rodon
(2 Goals)
, 
N. Okafor
(2 Goals)
, 
L. Nmecha
(2 Goals)
Q. Hartman
(4 Assists)
S. Longstaff
(2 Assists)
Burnley - Leeds Key Points
- Both teams have scored in each of Burnley's last four games across all competitions.
- The last three Leeds matches have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last two Premier League games played between Burnley and Leeds.
- Between them these two clubs have conceded 26 league goals this season.
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Our Burnley vs Leeds Prediction
It's a bit early for this game to be described as a six-pointer but a win would be important for both clubs. Burnley are in the bottom three and have lost four of their last five league fixtures. This game is followed by a trip to struggling Wolves and both represent a good chance of getting some points.
Leeds are already four points clear of the relegation zone and they will also see this as a good opportunity to earn at least another point. Both sides struggle defensively though and our main Burnley v Leeds prediction is both teams to score.
Burnley vs Leeds - Other Interesting Predictions
Burnley to win or draw
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Burnley Leeds
| Burnley vs Leeds | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins | 2.5 | 3.6 | +44.0% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.25 | -4.4% |
| Leeds wins | 2.5 | 2.1 | -16.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leeds is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 16.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 47.6% (7.6%)
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Burnley vs Leeds match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
