Burnley vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Championship Predictions
Burnley’s poor run continues as the team is now last on the Championship table, with zero wins in seven games. Derby County is two places above, with one win and five losses in the same number of games. Both teams are also scoring very few goals ahead of this matchup. So our Burnley vs Derby match prediction is under 2.5 goals.
The Rams recorded a third straight defeat in their last outing, playing 2-1 against Birmingham. They were goalless in the back-to-back defeats before the Birmingham match, which continued their poor goalscoring form that has seen the team net six goals in seven games. Burnley’s attacking form has been slightly better, as they have scored eight in the same number of games.
However, the Clarets are also on a poor run, losing three in its past five, including their recent 3-1 loss to Swansea. They have scored one goal or less in five out of seven league games this season. With such a poor scoring run from both sides, Saturday’s game will likely be another quiet game with little attacking action.
Our prediction is further backed by recent H2H meetings which have ended with few goals. Three of their last four H2H meetings ended goalless. Additionally, only three of their past nine H2H meetings ended with over 2.5 goals, a pattern we expect to continue on Saturday.
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Burnley v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.81 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.79 | 3.58 | 4.31 |
|
|
1.79 | 3.58 | 4.31 |
|
|
1.79 | 3.58 | 4.31 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.58 | 4.28 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Derby County match is: Under 2.5 Goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 19/09/2026 between Burnley and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 33.69% for a win of Burnley against Derby County with odds of 1.83 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Derby County is 38.54% with odds of 3.7 at Shangrila.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.77% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Burnley with odds of 4.33 at Bet365.
Burnley vs Derby County Form
Burnley and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
22
|
4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 |
|
24
|
3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 |
Burnley and Derby County Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - Championship
8 Sept 2026 - Championship
5 Sept 2026 - Championship
2 Sept 2026 - Championship
29 Aug 2026 - Championship
26 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Championship
2 Sept 2026 - Championship
16 Aug 2026 - Championship
8 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
2 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - Championship
8 Sept 2026 - Championship
29 Aug 2026 - Championship
26 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2026 - Championship
26 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - Championship
9 Sept 2026 - Championship
5 Sept 2026 - Championship
1 Sept 2026 - Championship
29 Aug 2026 - Championship
22 Aug 2026 - Championship
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - Championship
9 Sept 2026 - Championship
29 Aug 2026 - Championship
22 Aug 2026 - Championship
8 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Championship
1 Sept 2026 - Championship
15 Aug 2026 - Championship
4 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Burnley vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
8 Apr 2025 - Championship
10 Dec 2024 - Championship
Burnley vs Derby County last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
G. Coudert
DefenderA. Ahmedhodzic
H. Ekdal
L. Pires
MidfielderR. Hatate
ForwardL. Castell
A. Hountondji
A. Broja
J. Vardy
J. Vickers
DefenderD. Sanderson
M. Johnston
R. Nyambe
MidfielderO. Fraulo
A. Mowatt
R. Hedges
ForwardL. Salvesen
C. Blackett-Taylor
Missing players
J. Beyer
B. Humphreys
MidfielderJ. Cullen
ForwardA. Barnes
J. Banel
D. Satpaev
C. Forsyth
M. Clarke
D. Murkin
ForwardR. Brewster
P. Agyemang
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Derby County
Z. Flemming
(2 Goals)
S. Szmodics
(2 Goals)
, 
B. Clark
(2 Goals)
J. Bruun Larsen
(1 Assists)
, 
Z. Amdouni
(1 Assists)
, 
R. Hatate
(1 Assists)
, 
L. Ramazani
(1 Assists)
, 
Igor
(1 Assists)
B. Clark
(2 Assists)
Burnley and Derby County Stats in Championship
Burnley - Derby County Key Points
- Both teams have not scored more than two goals in a game this season
- The Rams have scored six goals in seven league games
- The Clarets have scored only eight goals in seven league games
- Derby County scored only one goal in their past three games
- Three of their past four H2H meetings ended goalless.
- Only three of their past nine meetings have ended with over 2.5 goals.
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Our Burnley vs Derby County Prediction
Last-placed Burnley prepare to host Derby County as the battle to avoid relegation intensifies. The home side are on three straight defeats, and the Rams could aim to make it four. However, their poor attacking form is only slightly better than Derby County’s.
This means both teams will likely look to keep things tidy at the back instead of focusing on attack. They have opted for this route in three of their past four meetings, which ended with zero goals for each side. Given their poor attacking form, we are confident in our Burnley vs Derby County match prediction of Under 2.5 Goals.
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