Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction & Betting Tips - NBA
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by Joseph King | in NBA Predictions
The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat for game one of the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. It’s the third time these two teams have met at this stage in the playoffs in the last four seasons. The Celtics hold the most recent bragging rights after eliminating the Heat in a seven-game slugfest last year to advance to the NBA Finals. They come into this series as the overwhelming favorites with the bookmakers clearly not rating the number eight seed Miami’s chances against the number two seed Boston. The Celtics come in as 1.20 favorites to advance to a second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals while the Heat hold a frankly ridiculous price of 5.00 to advance. The winner of this series will face off with either the Denver Nuggets or the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals.
Boston will have to cope with a short turnaround after being taken to seven games by the 76ers in the previous round. Historically, it has been profitable to fade a team coming off a game seven win in the first game of the next series. It’s understandable as to why: game sevens are emotion-filled, often extremely hard fought and physical games. They are enough to drain a team in ways that a normal regular season game would not. To make matters worse, they are playing against a team that relishes the nitty-gritty and physical aspect of the game.
The Heat have built a reputation as a hard-working, defense-minded team over the past few seasons. This reputation has been compounded with the arrival of Jimmy Butler in 2019 who personifies Miami’s hard-nosed approach to the game. For this reason, it’s extremely difficult to beat this team by a large margin. Miami has a knack for keeping games close, a trend which has become abundantly clear in these playoffs.
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Form
Boston Celtics and Miami Heat Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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6/6 (100%)
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3/6 (50%)
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
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Players list
M. Smart
G. Vincent
J. Butler
Substitutes
P. Pritchard
D. White
M. Brogdon
G. Williams
J. Champagnie
B. Griffin
K. Lowry
C. Martin
D. Robinson
H. Highsmith
U. Haslem
N. Jovic
Boston Celtics - Miami Heat Key Points
- Miami has a league best 8-3 against the spread record in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
- Teams coming off a game seven win have a record of just 33-52 (36.5%) in game one of the following series.
- Miami would have covered a +8 spread in three of their four regular season meetings with the Boston Celtics this season.
- Boston has lost their last two meetings against Miami, with the most recent ending in a 98-95 loss.
- Only once in 11 playoff games so far this postseason have the Heat lost a game by a double-digit margin.
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Our Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction
The Heat are much better than their eighth-seed would suggest. After all, this team finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference last season and saw very little roster changes in the offseason. With a rest advantage and an intimacy with this Boston Celtics team due to their many meetings over the last few years, we like them to keep this one close. This is historically a strong spot to back the more well-rested team against an opponent coming off a hard-fought seven game series. Therefore, our Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat prediction is for the Heat to cover the +8 spread.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
