Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
The stage is set in Zenica for a Tuesday night of immense consequence, as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Italy prepare to collide in the Path A European Playoff final for a spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Zmajevi are 66th in FIFA’s global ranking, while Gli Azzurri are in 12th place. Check out our match prediction below!
Both these sides are aiming to return to the World Cup proper for the first time since 2014. For the Golden Lillies, this could be just their second qualification to the global tournament since gaining independence, but they have only ever beaten this opponent once in six attempts, back in their first encounter - a 1996 friendly.
As for La Nazionale, this marks their third consecutive World Cup Playoff campaign, with the last two ending in heartbreak against Sweden in 2018 and North Macedonia in 2022. The ghosts of those defeats still haunt the four-time world champions, but can they overcome the nerves and secure their return to football's grandest stage? Let’s get into the key stats!
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Bosnia Herzegovina v Italy Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7 | 4.3 | 1.46 |
|
|
7.7 | 4.26 | 1.45 |
|
|
7.9 | 4.2 | 1.45 |
|
|
7 | 4.33 | 1.48 |
|
|
7.6 | 4.3 | 1.45 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Bosnia Herzegovina and Italy?
Our prediction for the Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy match is: Italy wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/03/2026 between Bosnia Herzegovina and Italy in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.9% for a win of Bosnia Herzegovina against Italy with odds of 7.9 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy is 20.26% with odds of 4.7 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 53.84% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs Bosnia Herzegovina with odds of 1.5 at Shangrila.
Bosnia Herzegovina - Italy Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bosnia Herzegovina Italy Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 53.84% | 1.5 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.68% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 57.08% | 2.2 at LSbet |
| Half-time / Full-time: Italy/Italy | 23.52% | 2.2 at Bet365 |
Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy Form
Bosnia Herzegovina and Italy Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
20 %
80 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2020 - UEFA Nations League
4 Sept 2020 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2019 - Euro
11 Jun 2019 - Euro
Bosnia Herzegovina - Italy: Form Analysis
Bosnia and Herzegovina agonisingly missed out on direct entry to the 2026 World Cup, as a late goal concession in their final qualification match against Austria forced them to settle for second place in their group.
However, the Dragons rebounded from that disappointment incredibly by holding Wales to a 1-1 draw in the semi-final of this competition before securing victory in a tense penalty shootout last week.
The hosts are now unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions. They are also unbeaten in their last five on home soil, which is a massive improvement after losing their previous five home games in a row.
Eight of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s last 10 matches have ended with both teams scoring!
Meanwhile, Italy’s hopes of qualifying directly for the upcoming World Cup were effectively ended before their final group-stage match, which they entered three points behind Norway.
Gli Azzurri were held goalless in the first half of the Playoff semi-final against Northern Ireland last week, but two second-half goals got them within one win of returning to the World Cup stage.
The visitors have now won seven of their last eight matches (L1) and scored two or more goals in each of those victories. They’ve also kept clean sheets in three of their last four games ahead of this one.
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Bosnia Herzegovina against Italy Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Substitutes
M. Zlomislic
O. Hadzikic
DefenderS. Radeljic
N. Celik
N. Mujakic
MidfielderA. Gigovic
B. Tahirovic
D. Burnic
A. Hadziahmetovic
K. Alajbegovic
S. Bazdar
H. Tabakovic
M. Carnesecchi
A. Meret
DefenderM. Palestra
A. Buongiorno
A. Cambiaso
F. Gatti
L. Spinazzola
D. Frattesi
N. Pisilli
B. Cristante
G. Raspadori
F. Esposito
Bosnia Herzegovina & Italy Squad Analysis
After ending the World Cup qualifiers as the team’s top scorer with six goals, the evergreen Edin Dzeko once again stepped up against Wales by scoring the equaliser to take the match to a penalty shootout.
Sergej Barbarez is expected to send out a similar lineup for this match, with Ermedin Demirovic partnering Dzeko in attack. Teenager Kerim Alajbegovic could earn a starting berth after providing the assist for the team’s goal in the semis.
Among the most notable absentees for the hosts are Dennis Hadzikadunic, Emir Karic, Arjan Malic and Jusuf Gazibegovic.
Dzeko is Bosnia and Herzegovina’s all-time top scorer with 73 goals in 147 appearances!
Sandro Tonali was the standout performer for Italy against Northern Ireland last week. The Newcastle United midfielder scored the team’s first goal before setting up the second for Moise Kean.
Italy head coach Gennaro Gattuso is also expected to maintain faith in the majority of those he sent out in the semis, though many Blues’ fans are calling for Pio Esposito to get a starting role.
Kean’s strike in the last match likely secured his spot for this one, meaning that should the 20-year-old Inter Milan forward get the nod, it will likely be at the expense of Al Qadisah’s Mateo Retegui.
Most goals and assists
Bosnia Herzegovina
Italy
E. Dzeko
(9 Goals)
M. Kean
(12 Goals)
K. Alajbegovic
(4 Assists)
,
E. Dzeko
(4 Assists)
F. Dimarco
(4 Assists)
,
M. Retegui
(4 Assists)
,
S. Tonali
(4 Assists)
,
N. Barella
(4 Assists)
Bosnia Herzegovina - Italy Key Points
- Bosnia and Herzegovina have only won two of their last six matches in regulation time.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina have only kept two clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina are winless in their last five matches against this opponent.
- Italy have won seven of their last eight matches.
- Italy have scored two or more goals in four of their last five away games in all competitions.
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Our Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy Prediction
While Bosnia and Herzegovina have done exceptionally well to reach this stage, it should be noted that they had a much more favourable group-stage draw, with only Austria ranked inside FIFA’s top 25 among their opponents.
Barring their losses to Norway, Italy were very impressive during their qualification campaign and showed great composure to get the job done against Northern Ireland last week. This should be a close contest, but we fancy Gli Azzurri to end their wait to return to the World Cup. Our Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy prediction is Italy wins.
Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Eight of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s last 10 matches have ended with both teams scoring, while Italy have scored two or more goals in four of their last five away games in all competitions.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bosnia Herzegovina Italy
| Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia Herzegovina wins | 4.84 | 7.9 | +63.2% |
| Draw | 3.56 | 4.7 | +32.0% |
| Italy wins | 1.77 | 1.5 | -15.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Italy is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 15.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 56.5% and is now 66.7% (10.2%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Bosnia Herzegovina vs. Italy game!
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Bosnia Herzegovina vs Italy - FAQs
The Path A European Playoff final between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Italy will take place on March 31 at 18:45 GMT.
The Path A European Playoff final between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Italy will be played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.
The Path A European Playoff final between will be broadcast on BHRT in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Sky Sport in Italy. UK viewers can tune in to Amazon Prime.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our World Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
