Bologna vs Roma Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Europa League Predictions
The round of 16 in this season’s Europa League brings us an all-Italian Derby on Thursday night, when Bologna will play host to Roma in the first leg at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara. The winner of this tie between I Rossoblu and I Giallorossi will meet either Aston Villa or Lille in the quarter-finals. Check out our match prediction below!
Bologna are set to feature in the last 16 of the UEL for the first time since 1998-99, when they went on to reach the semi-final (UEFA Cup). Vincenzo Italiano’s side have only suffered one defeat in this competition to date, but are the underdogs in this tie, having failed to beat this opponent in their last two encounters (D1 L1).
Roma, on the other hand, are into the last 16 of this competition for the fourth successive season, a period during which they reached the semi-final (2023-24) and final (2022-23). This is the 15th time Gian Piero Gasperini will face Italiano (all clubs), with the latter holding the advantage with seven wins and three draws. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Bologna v Roma Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.1 | 3.05 | 2.55 |
|
|
3 | 3 | 2.59 |
|
|
3.16 | 3.02 | 2.47 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.1 | 2.45 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.05 | 2.52 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Bologna and Roma?
Our prediction for the Bologna vs Roma match is: Donyell Malen over 1.5 shots on target.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between Bologna and Roma in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.93% for a win of Bologna against Roma with odds of 3.18 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bologna vs Roma is 24.95% with odds of 3.15 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.12% chance ⭐ for a win of Roma vs Bologna with odds of 2.63 at 888Starz.
Bologna - Roma Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bologna Roma Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Roma wins | 38.12% | 2.63 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 59.54% | 2.17 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 57.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Roma | 22.28% | 5.75 at LSbet |
Bologna vs Roma Form
Bologna and Roma Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
2 Mar 2026 - Serie A
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
23 Feb 2026 - Serie A
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
23 Feb 2026 - Serie A
11 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
8 Feb 2026 - Serie A
3 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Mar 2026 - Serie A
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
15 Jan 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
2 Feb 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
13 Jan 2026 - Coppa Italia
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
2 Feb 2026 - Serie A
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Serie A
6 Jan 2026 - Serie A
Bologna vs Roma Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
33 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
12 Jan 2025 - Serie A
10 Nov 2024 - Serie A
22 Apr 2024 - Serie A
17 Dec 2023 - Serie A
14 May 2023 - Serie A
Bologna - Roma: Form Analysis
Bologna finished 10th in the League Phase of this competition with 15 points (W4 D3 L1), falling just one point short of the top eight. They defeated Brann 2-0 in the Knockout Playoffs to progress to the last 16.
However, the Felsinians suffered their 11th defeat of the season in the Serie A at the weekend, 2-1 at home to Verona, and are now 11 points behind Juventus in the final European qualification spot.
The hosts have not lost a home game in Europe this season (W2 D3), but their form at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara has dipped massively recently. In their last 10 home matches across all competitions, their record stands at W2 D2 L6.
However, Bologna are unbeaten in their last four home games against this opponent (W2 D2)!
Meanwhile, after losing two of their first three Europa League games (W1), Roma rattled off four wins and a draw in their final five matches to secure eighth place during the League Phase of the competition.
The Wolves also suffered defeat in their domestic league at the weekend, 2-1 to Genoa, which ended their four-match unbeaten run and saw them slip to fifth place in the standings behind Como.
The visitors took a very impressive 10 points from their four UEL away games (W3 D1), but they enter this match winless in their last four on the road in all competitions, losing two and drawing two.
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Bologna against Roma Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Substitutes
F. Ravaglia
DefenderM. Vitik
T. Heggem
N. Zortea
C. Lykogiannis
N. Cambiaghi
N. Moro
S. Sohm
ForwardR. Orsolini
J. Odgaard
T. Dallinga
B. Dominguez
G. De Marzi
P. Gollini
DefenderK. Tsimikas
J. Ziolkowski
M. Hermoso
L. Pellegrini
R. Vaz
S. El Shaarawy
Missing players
E. Holm
P. Dybala
A. Dovbyk
E. Ferguson
Bologna & Roma Squad Analysis
Riccardo Orsolini and Federico Bernardeschi lead Bologna with three goals in this competition and should make the starting 11 this week. Thijs Dallinga is also on three goals but has fallen in the pecking order, failing to feature in the team’s last three matches in all competitions.
Juventus loanee Joao Mario made his UEL debut for the Red and Blues in the second leg against Brann and scored the only goal of the match. He should keep his place in the defensive quartet for this one.
The hosts have two players listed on their injury report for this match, including Juan Miranda and Torbjorn Heggem. The latter’s absence will likely see Martin Vitik partner Jhon Lucumi in central defence.
Roma are set to unleash Donyell Malen in the Europa League this week!
The Aston Villa loanee has been incredible since arriving in Rome, racking up six goals in eight league games. He was not eligible to feature in the final two League Phase games, but is almost certain to make his UEL debut for I Giallorossi in this match.
Gianluca Mancini was sent off in the draw against Panathinaikos on MD8 and is suspended for this match. Devyne Rensch is the most likely to step into the right-back slot in Mancini’s absence.
The visitors have four players ruled out through injury this week, including the influential Paulo Dybala, Matias Soule, Artem Dovbyk and Evan Ferguson, who will also miss Ireland’s World Cup Playoff.
Most goals and assists
Bologna
Roma
F. Bernardeschi
(5 Goals)
D. Malen
(4 Goals)
T. Dallinga
(2 Assists)
,
N. Zortea
(2 Assists)
,
N. Cambiaghi
(2 Assists)
, 
J. Rowe
(2 Assists)
B. Zaragoza
(4 Assists)
Bologna - Roma Key Points
- Donyell Malen has scored six goals in his eight matches for Roma.
- Donyell Malen has recorded over 1.5 shots on target in four of his last five games.
- Donyell Malen has had 75 touches in the opposition box in his eight games for Roma.
- Roma are averaging two goals per 90 in away games in the UEL this season.
- Bologna have only kept one clean sheet in their last four games against this opponent.
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Our Bologna vs Roma Prediction
While Bologna have not been great in the Serie A this season and are the underdogs in this match, they have fared well against this opponent in recent times, losing only one of their last six encounters.
Roma, meanwhile, are winless in their last four on the road in all competitions and have not won at this venue since December 2020. However, the visitors have a new talisman in Donyell Malen now, and he has been in stunning form since arriving in Rome. The Villa loanee has already notched up six goals in eight games, and we feel he will record at least a couple of shots on target on his UEL debut for I Giallorossi. Our Bologna vs Roma prediction is Donyell Malen over 1.5 shots on target.
Bologna vs Roma Alternative Predictions
Less than 2.5 goals
Six of Bologna’s last eight matches have ended with under 2.5 goals in regulation time, and they have kept clean sheets in four of their last five matches. Additionally, fewer than three goals were scored in three of the last four games between these sides at this venue.
Bologna wins
Bologna are unbeaten in their last four home games against this opponent and have won five of their last six matches in all competitions, while Roma are winless in their last four on the road ahead of this one.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bologna Roma
| Bologna vs Roma | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna wins | 3.13 | 3.18 | +1.6% |
| Draw | 3.11 | 3.15 | +1.3% |
| Roma wins | 2.67 | 2.63 | -1.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Roma is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 37.5% and is now 38.0% (0.6%)
Bologna vs Roma - FAQs
The Europa League round of 16 first leg between Bologna and Roma will take place on March 12 at 20:00 GMT.
The Europa League round of 16 first leg between Bologna and Roma will be played at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara in Bologna.
The Europa League round of 16 first leg between Bologna and Roma will be broadcast on Sky in Italy and TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Europa League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
