Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Betting Tips - Spanish Super Cup
Spain - Spanish Super Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Football Predictions
Defending Supercopa de Espana winners Barcelona start their title defence of the 2026 edition with a match against Athletic Bilbao. This semi-final match in Jeddah between the Blaugrana and the Lehoiak comes with our prediction of less than 3.5 goals.
Barcelona won last season’s La Liga title and the Copa del Rey tournaments, earning a ticket to this edition’s last four. Athletic qualified by finishing fourth in La Liga last season.
Barca edged Espanyol 2-0 in a Catalan derby last weekend to continue their impressive form in all competitions. They now have eight wins in a row in all competitions, the last four coming by a 2-0 score.
Their 2025 title run started with a 2-0 win over Athletic, and the Catalans have scored in each of their last ten Supercopa matches. They did score 2+ goals in eight of those ten games, although they wouldn’t mind a repeat 2-0 win here.
Athletic drew 1-1 away at Osasuna in La Liga at the weekend, extending their indifferent recent form. The Lions have just one win from their last five competitive matches (W1, D2, L2), with even that victory coming via additional extra time.
Athletic have won this title three times, the last of which came in 2021, when they defeated Barcelona in the final, but reaching that stage could be a challenge.
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Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.52 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
|
|
1.54 | 4.38 | 5.65 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.64 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao?
Our prediction for the Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao match is: less than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/01/2026 between Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao in Spanish Super Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 65.99% for a win of Barcelona against Athletic Bilbao with odds of 1.55 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao is 18.57% with odds of 4.9 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 15.44% chance ⭐ for a win of Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona with odds of 5.8 at Stake.
Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Best Odds:
| Barcelona Athletic Bilbao Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona wins | 65.99% | 1.55 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 51.03% | 2.5 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 64.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Barcelona | 29.19% | 4.75 at Bet365 |
Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Form
Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
16 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
16 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
22 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
18 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 May 2025 - LaLiga
8 Jan 2025 - Spanish Super Cup
24 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
3 Mar 2024 - LaLiga
24 Jan 2024 - Copa del Rey
Barcelona against Athletic Bilbao Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
D. Kochen
W. Szczesny
DefenderG. Martin
M. Bernal
M. Casado
D. Fernandez
T. Marques
ForwardL. Yamal
R. Lewandowski
D. Olmo
M. Rashford
A. Padilla
DefenderI. Monreal
I. Lekue
A. Gorosabel
MidfielderU. Gomez
S. Sanchez
I. Ruiz De Galarreta
N. Williams
N. Serrano
U. Izeta
G. Guruzeta
Missing players
A. Christensen
R. Araujo
MidfielderGavi
A. Laporte
Y. Alvarez
U. Egiluz
MidfielderB. Prados
ForwardM. Sannadi
Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao Key Points
- Barcelona’s last five matches produced under 3.5 goals.
- Barcelona’s last four matches ended in a 2-0 win for the Catalans.
- Athletic’s last nine competitive matches saw fewer than four goals each time.
- Four of the last five competitive matches between these sides produced fewer than three goals.
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Our Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
Barcelona are the record champions in this competition’s history with 15 titles, the last of which came last year. They won eight in a row, and the last four have come by an identical 2-0 scoreline. Athletic Bilbao are struggling for wins recently, with only one win from their last five competitive matches. That came via additional time putting questions over their chances here.
This could be a tight game, looking at how Athletic’s matches went. Our Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao prediction is less than 3.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Barcelona Athletic Bilbao
| Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona wins | 1.5 | 1.55 | +3.3% |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.9 | +13.2% |
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 5.75 | 5.8 | +0.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Barcelona is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 66.7% and is now 64.5% (-2.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
