Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Champions League Predictions
A brand new Champions League season awakens, and on Tuesday, Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal will aim to affirm their ambitions when they meet in their opening match at Estadio de San Mames. The Lions reached the semi-final of the Europa League last season, while the Gunners made it to the final four in this competition. Check out our match prediction below!
An electric and slightly emotional atmosphere is expected this week in the Basque Country, as the passionate Athleticzales are set to see their side return to Europe’s elite club competition after an 11-year absence. This is only the third time the Red and Blues have qualified for the UCL since it was rebranded in 1992.
Meanwhile, a quarter-final appearance in 2023-24 - a run to the semis last season - is this the year the Gooners finally see their heroes end their European trophy drought? It’s a battle of the Basques and the Brits - let’s get into the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Athletic Bilbao v Arsenal Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
|
|
3.6 | 3.3 | 2 |
|
|
3.9 | 3.3 | 1.95 |
|
|
4 | 3.5 | 1.91 |
|
|
4.35 | 3.55 | 1.83 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal match is: Arsenal wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/09/2025 between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.47% for a win of Athletic Bilbao against Arsenal with odds of 4.35 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal is 10.53% with odds of 3.55 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 58% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Athletic Bilbao with odds of 2.05 at 22bet.
Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal Form
Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
4 Sep 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
25 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
4 Sep 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
25 May 2025 - Premier League
11 May 2025 - Premier League
7 May 2025 - Champions League
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Before coming undone against Man United last season, Athletic Bilbao were easily one of the most impressive teams in the Europa League. They finished second in the League Phase with 19 points, only behind table toppers Lazio on goal difference.
The Basque side will hope to emulate that type of form this season in the UCL, where they failed to get beyond the group stage in their two previous campaigns among Europe’s elite.
Los Leones only finished behind the big three of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico in La Liga last season. The cornerstone of their success was their defence that conceded just 29 goals, which was the fewest in the top flight.
Athletic Club kept three clean sheets in their four Europa League league phase games last season!
Meanwhile, despite all the plaudits they received for their performances against PSG last season, pressure to bring silverware back to the Emirates is starting to weigh heavily on Mikel Arteta’s shoulders.
The Gunners finished third in the League Phase of last season’s Champions League before battering PSV and Real Madrid 9-1 and 5-1 on aggregate in the last 16 and quarter-finals, respectively.
The visitors’ only defeat in the Premier League this season was away to Liverpool before the international break. They won and kept clean sheets in their other three top-flight matches this term, including a 3-0 victory against Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
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Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
U. Egiluz
I. Lekue
MidfielderB. Prados
ForwardN. Williams
G. Jesus
K. Havertz
B. Saka
Athletic Bilbao & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Ernesto Valverde will be feeling as though the international break came at the worst possible time, as his side won their two league games before the break but lost 1-0 upon returning at the weekend.
To make matters worse, Nico Williams sustained a groin injury while on international duty with Spain, which is now expected to keep him sidelined until the end of the month. Benat Prados and Unai Egiluz are also injured, while Inigo Lekue is a doubt.
Inaki Williams will likely switch over to fill in for his brother on the left wing with Alex Berenguer moving out to the right, while Oihan Sancet should operate in the number 10 role.
Viktor Gyokeres scored against this opponent in the Emirates Cup final last month!
Arteta’s marquee summer signing has hit the ground running since arriving from Sporting and netted in the win at the weekend, taking his tally to three goals in four league games.
The injury bug may have also taken a big bite out of Arsenal’s attacking ranks, with Martin Odegaard flagged as a major doubt after suffering a second shoulder injury in three games against Forest.
The Gunners’ skipper could now add to the team’s casualty list, which already features Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, while William Saliba and Christian Norgaard are touch-and-go.
Most goals and assists
Athletic Bilbao
Arsenal
A. Paredes
(1 Goals)
,
R. Navarro
(1 Goals)
,
N. Williams
(1 Goals)
,
M. Sannadi
(1 Goals)
,
O. Sancet
(1 Goals)
V. Gyokeres
(3 Goals)
N. Williams
(2 Assists)
R. Calafiori
(2 Assists)
Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal Key Points
- Athletic Bilbao have only won one of their last four European games.
- Athletic Bilbao have lost eight of their last 11 matches across all competitions (including pre-season).
- Arsenal won nine of their 14 Champions League matches last season.
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in four of their last five matches across all competitions.
- Arsenal beat this opponent 3-0 in the Emirates Cup final last month.
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Our Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal Prediction
Just when they were finding some form after a very poor pre-season, Athletic Bilbao’s momentum was halted by the international break - a period during which they also lost their best player from last season to injury.
Arsenal could also be down a few key men here, but they were far too good when they met this opponent in the Emirates Cup last month, and we feel they will be too strong for them in this one as well. Our Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal prediction is Arsenal wins the match.
Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score (NO)
Two of Bilbao's three league games this season ended with only one team scoring, while Arsenal have kept three clean sheets in four Premier League matches this term. Additionally, both of these teams had the best defensive records in their respective domestic leagues last season.
Win free tickets to Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal at Bet365!
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Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal will take place on September 16 at 16:45 GMT.
The Champions League match between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal will be played at Estadio de San Mames in Spain.
The Champions League match between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal will be broadcast live on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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