Ajax vs Olympiacos Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
Ajax and Olympiacos both need a win to stay alive in the race to reach the knockouts of the UEFA Champions League (UCL) as they play in matchday eight of the league phase on Wednesday. This match between the 32nd-placed Jews and the 24th-placed Red-Whites comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals.
With six points from seven matches (W2, L5), the Dutch hosts are two points outside the top 24 spots. They need to win and hope other results go their way to move up into the play-off spots. Olympiacos have eight points (W2, D2, L3) and are currently occupying the last spot of the playoffs.
After starting with five consecutive defeats, Ajax would have thought they had no chance of qualifying, but back-to-back wins brought them back into contention. Olympiacos have been consistent, in comparison to their hosts, but their poor away form in this competition is a big concern. What does this game in Amsterdam have in store for us? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Ajax v Olympiacos Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.1 | 3.55 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.09 | 3.68 | 2.19 |
|
|
3.14 | 3.48 | 2.24 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.05 | 3.6 | 2.22 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Ajax and Olympiacos?
Our prediction for the Ajax vs Olympiacos match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/01/2026 between Ajax and Olympiacos in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.35% for a win of Ajax against Olympiacos with odds of 3.29 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ajax vs Olympiacos is 15.39% with odds of 3.7 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 48.27% chance ⭐ for a win of Olympiacos vs Ajax with odds of 2.31 at 888Starz.
Ajax - Olympiacos Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ajax Olympiacos Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos wins | 48.27% | 2.31 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 63.75% | 2.21 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 70.83% | |
| Half-time : Ajax / Full-time : Olympiacos | 18.66% | 23 at Bet365 |
Ajax vs Olympiacos Form
Ajax and Olympiacos's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
18
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 |
|
32
|
6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -13 |
Ajax and Olympiacos Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
11 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
11 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Dec 2025 - KNVB beker
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Superleague
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Jan 2026 - Greece Cup
10 Jan 2026 - Superleague
3 Jan 2026 - Super Cup
20 Dec 2025 - Superleague
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Superleague
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Jan 2026 - Greece Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Super Cup
20 Dec 2025 - Superleague
17 Dec 2025 - Greece Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - Superleague
14 Dec 2025 - Superleague
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
3 Dec 2025 - Greece Cup
30 Nov 2025 - Superleague
9 Nov 2025 - Superleague
Ajax vs Olympiacos Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
19 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Ajax - Olympiacos: Form Analysis
Ajax won 2-0 at home over Volendam in the Eredivisie at the weekend, making it two wins and a draw in all competitions. In fact, with eight wins in their last 11 competitive matches (D2, L1), the Dutch hosts are moving in the right direction.
Their UCL form has also improved with wins over Qarabag (4-2) and Villarreal (2-1) on matchdays six and seven in the UCL. Both those victories have come on the road and their home form remains patchy as they lost all three UCL matches this season at this venue without scoring.
Ajax netted 2+ goals in ten of their last 11 competitive games.
Olympiacos won 1-0 at home against Volos at the weekend in a Greek Super League match. That was their fourth win in their last five competitive matches (L1) giving them enough momentum for this crucial game.
In the UCL, the Greeks started with just two points from their first five league phase games (D2, L3). Both those points have come at home, while the Greeks improved to wins over Kairat Almaty (1-0 away) and Bayer Leverkusen (2-0 home) in their last two matchdays of this competition.
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Ajax against Olympiacos Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Heerkens
P. Reverson
DefenderL. Rosa
G. Alders
J. Mokio
M. van der Lans
A. Bouwman
MidfielderK. Fitz-Jim
R. Bounida
P. Nash
O. Edvardsen
W. Weghorst
N. Botis
G. Kouraklis
DefenderA. Kalogeropoulos
G. Biancone
D. Nascimento
L. Scipioni
O. Bruno
D. Garcia
Chiquinho
S. Pnevmonidis
G. Strefezza
D. Podence
Missing players
K. Itakura
ForwardS. Berghuis
Ajax & Olympiacos Squad Analysis
The hosts are going to miss Steven Berghuis due to injury, their lone absence for this game. That would give Ajax enough options to continue their attacking formation and go for goals as they chase an unlikely play-off place.
Ajax have stuck to 4-3-3 formations in their recent games, and that could be the template once again. That would mean a central role for Kasper Dolberg, while Oscar Gloukh on the right side of the front three will look to add to his tally of three Champions League goals.
Mehdi Taremi has four goals in his last five games for Olympiacos.
He also has two goals and one assist in his last three UCL games, so he could be a key player for the visitors here. Taremi could line up as the lone striker in their 4-2-3-1 system, although Ayoub El Kaabi could also fancy his chances.
The visitors could be without Alexis Kalogeropoulos, who was injured at the weekend. Other than him, the only other absentee could be Theofanis Bakoulas for the Greeks.
Most goals and assists
Ajax
Olympiacos
O. Gloukh
(3 Goals)
G. Martins
(3 Goals)
S. Steur
(1 Assists)
, 
L. Rosa
(1 Assists)
, 
M. Godts
(1 Assists)
,
D. Konadu
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Gaaei
(1 Assists)
Chiquinho
(2 Assists)
, 
M. Taremi
(2 Assists)
,
Rodinei
(2 Assists)
Ajax - Olympiacos Key Points
- Four of Ajax’s last five home matches in all competitions saw fewer than 2.5 goals.
- Ajax have failed to score in each of their three home matches in the Champions League this season.
- Olympiacos’ last six matches in all competitions saw less than three goals scored.
- In five of Olympiacos’ last seven Champions League matches, there have been two or fewer goals scored.
- Four of Olympiacos’ last five away competitive games produced fewer than three goals.
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Our Ajax vs Olympiacos Prediction
Ajax started the competition on a wrong footing, but consecutive wins have put them back in contention. A play-off spot is within reach, although they need to win here and hope other results go their way. Olympiacos will be worried about their poor away form, as the Greeks have lost 12 of their last 13 away matches in the UCL group/league phase, which clearly indicates a challenge on the road in this competition.
This could be a tight game, and our Ajax vs Olympiacos prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Ajax vs Olympiacos Alternative Predictions
Ajax wins
Going by just their form in the Champions League, Ajax may not have a chance. That said, the Dutch hosts have turned things around in the recent weeks and have won their last two matches in this competition. They have also won three of their last four home competitive games and will look to edge out a travel-weary Greek side.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ajax Olympiacos
| Ajax vs Olympiacos | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 2.63 | 3.29 | +25.1% |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.7 | +2.5% |
| Olympiacos wins | 2.79 | 2.31 | -17.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Olympiacos is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 17.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 35.8% and is now 43.3% (7.4%)
Ajax vs Olympiacos - FAQs
The Ajax vs Olympiacos UEFA Champions League match will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 7 in the UK. In the Netherlands, the match is broadcast on Ziggo Sport, while in Greece, Cosmote TV and AlterEgo are the official broadcasters.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Champions League Livescore page!
These sides have played each other on six occasions with two results of each type – two Ajax wins, two draws, and two Olympiacos wins.
Ajax have a great record when hosting the Greeks, winning two and drawing one of three such matches, without conceding a goal. That said, the last of those games came back in November 1998.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
