What is Closing Line Value and why does it matter for sports betting?

Closing Line Value

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When tracking sports betting results, most punters focus entirely on the wrong numbers. Win rates and winning streaks may appear important on the surface level, but they can often paint a misleading picture as to whether or not a person is actually a profitable bettor. Closing Line Value (CLV) is one of the top indicators of long-term betting success… yet many have never even heard of it.

What is Closing Line Value?

Closing Line Value is the difference between the odds you locked in with your bookmaker and the odds that the bet closed at. By the time a match starts, the final odds of any particular bet is the culmination of all available information sources: injury news, weather, lineups, sharp money and public handle (the total amount bet). In other words, it’s the market’s closest estimate to how likely an outcome is.

So why do bookmakers shift their prices? This is usually down to a few reasons. Heavy action from respected bettors (sharp money) on one side will oftentimes cause the line to move quickly. The handle can also influence the direction of a price, especially if the bookmaker is overly exposed on one side (liability). This is done to increase action on the other side of the bet, thus creating a more even handle.

Important team news, such as the injury of a team’s star player, or a manager stating that he will rotate his squad, will also cause a shift in the odds. Dramatic weather conditions can often affect the way that a game is played, which of course will be reflected in the odds as well.

If you booked a bet at 2.25 odds and the line closed at 2.00, you’ve got positive CLV. If, however, the line moved against you (2.25 to 2.50 for example), you’ve got negative CLV. It’s important to remember that the result of the match does not change this – CLV measures the bet itself, not the outcome.

Why CLV matters

Win rate alone can be deceiving. For example, a punter hitting 55% of their bets at 1.90 average odds and a punter hitting 45% of their bets at 2.75 odds are in completely different situations.

The 45% bettor is actually running nearly 9% above expectation, while the 55% bettor is roughly only 2.5% above expectation. This will result in a noticeable difference in the ROI of the two bettors (23.75% vs 4.5%), despite the 55% win rate looking like a more desirable figure on surface level.

Now that we have one piece of the puzzle, the final missing piece is Closing Line Value. This, combined with ROI, provides a complete picture of a sports bettor. You can think of CLV as: grading the quality of the price that you took.

Simply put, CLV tells you if you are consistently finding an edge, ROI tells you if you are turning a profit.

To put that to use: a positive CLV and a negative ROI, you could be running bad. A negative CLV and positive ROI, you’re making money, but you could be making more. 

Here are some practical examples of grading CLV:

  • A+: Line opens at 1.91, you book at 1.91, closes at 1.60.
    • Best available price, market moved hard in your direction. This is the best possible outcome and you’ve maximised your CLV.
  • B: Opens at 1.91, you book at 1.75, closes at 1.60.
    • You beat the close, but left value on the table by not getting in earlier or at a sharper book.
  • D: Opens at 1.83, you book at 1.83, closes at 2.00.
    • The market moved against you. Your read was off even if your process was fine.
  • F: Opens at 1.90, you book at 1.65, closes at 1.75.
    • Worse price than was available at open, and the market still drifted away from your side. Poor execution and a poor read.

What’s interesting to note is that the A+ and D situations look identical in terms of process. The only difference is which way the market moved. Over a long-term sample size, these two profiles will produce very different results.

How to track and use CLV

Many casual punters will only track their picks and Win/Loss results. To improve as a sports bettor, you’ll want to also log the odds you placed your bets at, as well as the odds that the bookmaker closed at. You'll want to make sure you have multiple accounts with the best online bookmakers to ensure that you are always getting the best possible price. To go a step even further, record the opening price for the bet that you placed. Depending on the sport, there are usually various sources which will help you to track opening and closing prices for your bets.

If you’re mathematically inclined and would prefer to manually calculate your Closing Line Value, here’s the formula:

  • CLV % = (Your Decimal Odds / Closing Decimal Odds − 1) × 100
    • Ex. Bet at 2.50, line closes at 2.30. CLV = (2.50 / 2.30 − 1) × 100 ≈ 8.7% I.e. you beat the closing line by 8.7%.

In order to get an idea of what your true CLV percentage is, you’ll have to track your results over a large sample of hundreds or even thousands of bets. Additionally, it’s important that you remain realistic with the expectations. 1-2% positive CLV is fantastic, while 4-5% is approaching elite territory. Remember: having any positive CLV is an excellent sign and puts you well ahead of most recreational bettors!

In Part 2, we will explore how to improve your CLV through line shopping and bet timing, as well as removing some of the negative habits that can quietly erode value.

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