This Weekend's Best Player Props: Alvarez, Douvikas, Doku and McBurnie
by Joseph King | by Joseph King
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Alvarez anytime goalscorer
Odds: 2.75 with bet365
After a turbulent spell to start the 2026-27 La Liga season amid rumours of a potential sale to Barcelona, Julian Alvarez ultimately stayed with Atletico Madrid. He seemingly had to regain the trust of Diego Simeone and was slowly introduced back into the squad. The World Cup winner has started the last four consecutive matches for Los Colchoneros, scoring twice in that run.
A look at his underlying numbers suggests that more goals could be on the way as well.
Julian Alvarez: La Liga 2026-27
| Shots/90 | Shots on target/90 | xG/90 | xGOT/90 | Goals/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.36 | 1.91 | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.27 |
Shot volume isn’t a problem for Alvarez, who is firing off over four per game with almost two landing on target per 90 minutes. Despite that output, he is converting at just 61% of his expected rate, well below the league-average baseline. His xGOT running above his xG confirms the quality of his finishing attempts is there, meaning the goals owed should arrive sooner rather than later.
Alvarez also has a strong personal record against Barcelona, netting four goals and providing two assists in nine appearances against the Blaugrana across all competitions. See our Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction!
Additionally, Barcelona’s defence has looked vulnerable away from home. The league leaders have conceded in five straight away matches across all competitions, giving up 10 goals during that stretch. Atletico's shot volume through Alvarez, combined with Barcelona's away defensive record, makes 2.75 a price worth taking.
Inter vs Como: Douvikas anytime goalscorer
Odds: 2.88 with bet365
It’s been quite the last few weeks for Cesc Fabregas’ Como side, who are fresh off of smashing multiple records after their 9-1 away demolition of RC Lens in the Champions League. They became the first Italian side to score nine in a European fixture, claimed the largest away winning margin in UCL history, and tied the overall largest winning margin in the competition.
In that match, striker Anastasios Douvikas became the first player in Como’s history to bag a hat trick in a European match.
Anastasios Douvikas: 2026-27
| Competition | Minutes | Goals/90 | xG/90 | xGOT/90 | Shots/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 767 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 3.29 |
| Champions League | 246 | 2.20 | 1.33 | 1.61 | 3.29 |
The Greek forward spearheads a Como side which has been scoring for fun lately. Even stripping out the Lens result, the other five games still averaged close to two xG per match.
Como, last 6 matches (all comps):
- Goals: 22
- Expected goals: 13.9
- Big chances created: 29
They face a tough test against defending champions Inter at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, who rank second in expected goals against.
Interestingly, Inter have conceded seven goals in five home matches (1.4 per game), while Como have been particularly dangerous on the road, scoring 13 goals in six away games. These splits suggest an open game at the Meazza, and Como are a genuine top-four side this season with the creative quality to cause problems. At 2.88, there is value in backing the in-form striker to find the net.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: Doku over 2.5 fouls won
Odds: 1.67 with bet365
Doku is undoubtedly one of the most electrifying players in the Premier League. His elite dribbling ability (7.06 completed dribbles per 90 this season), forces defenders into last-ditch challenges, which often results in Doku being one of the most fouled players on the pitch.
Jeremy Doku fouls won: Premier League 2026-27
| Season | Minutes | Fouls won/90 | Dribbles completed/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1,784 | 3.08 | 4.24 |
| 2026-27 | 306 | 3.82 | 7.06 |
And while the sample size for the 2026-27 EPL season is somewhat small (306 minutes) after Doku missed some time with a calf injury, we can look to the previous campaign for a more reliable baseline.
Doku drew 3.08 fouls won on 4.24 dribbles per 90 in the 2025-26 season, and his current form is tracking even higher. The Belgian winger has cleared the 2.5 fouls mark in his last three league starts, drawing three, four and three fouls respectively. See our Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction!
What puts this pick over the edge is the opposition. Nottingham Forest rank second in the Premier League in fouls committed per game at 14.1, making them the ideal opponent for Doku to face.
Arsenal vs Hull City: McBurnie to be booked
Odds: 4.50 with betway
Our bonus pick this week involves a big price on Oli McBurnie to be shown a card. The Hull City striker has picked up four yellow cards in nine Premier League appearances this season, with three of those four coming in away matches. See our Arsenal vs Hull City prediction!
Oli McBurnie bookings: 2026-27 Premier League
- 9 PL appearances
- 4 yellow cards
- 44.4% booking rate
- 3 of 4 yellows came in away matches
McBurnie is one of the league’s most physical, combative forwards who tends to attract bookings, particularly on the road against top opposition. Arsenal, meanwhile, are the most fouled team in the Premier League. Their starting centre back pairing of Gabriel and Ezri Konsa are particularly skilled at drawing the whistle, and the former has picked up a reputation for getting under the skin of opposition strikers. Gabriel averages 1.11 fouls won per 90 this season while Konsa’s 1.97 is among the highest in his position. At 4.33, this is an appealing punt on a player whose profile fits the bill.
