Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Bundesliga resumes on matchday 16 with the bottom-placed Mainz travelling to European hopefuls Union Berlin on Saturday. This match in Berlin between the eighth-placed Iron Ones and the 18th-placed 05ers comes with our prediction of a home win accompanied by BTTS.
With 21 points from 15 matches (W6, D3, L6), Union spent the winter break five points outside the European qualification spots. Mainz’s eight points (W1, D5, L9) saw them stuck in the basement and six points adrift of the safety zone.
Union edged Koln 1-0 away from home in their last game of 2025. That was their second win in a row, helping them to stay alive in the race for European places.
Being competitive at home could be their ticket to Europe, although they won only twice in their last seven home league games (D3, L2) and need improvements on that count.
Mainz drew 0-0 at home against St Pauli, failing to lift themselves off the bottom of the standings. That result kept them winless across 11 Bundesliga matches (D4, L7) going into the break.
The visitors won only once in this campaign, and that came on the road, but their away form has been dire recently. Mainz lost four of their last five away league games (D1), which needs improvement if they want to avoid relegation.
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Union Berlin v 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.23 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.15 | 3.15 | 3.7 |
|
|
2.21 | 3.14 | 3.56 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.2 | 4 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Union Berlin and 1 Fsv Mainz 05?
Our prediction for the Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 match is: Union Berlin wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/01/2026 between Union Berlin and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 49.9% for a win of Union Berlin against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 with odds of 2.29 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is 31.56% with odds of 3.3 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.54% chance ⭐ for a win of 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin with odds of 4 at Bet365.
Union Berlin - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction and Best Odds:
| Union Berlin 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin wins | 49.9% | 2.29 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 2.26 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Union Berlin | 31.41% | 5.25 at LSbet |
Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Form
Union Berlin and 1 Fsv Mainz 05's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
40 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 |
|
11
|
39 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -14 |
Union Berlin and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
24 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
5 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
5 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Nov 2025 - Conference League
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
19 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
24 Aug 2024 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2024 - Bundesliga
20 Aug 2023 - Bundesliga
4 Feb 2023 - Bundesliga
14 Aug 2022 - Bundesliga
Union Berlin against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Substitutes
M. Raab
DefenderC. Trimmel
S. Nsoki
J. Juranovic
MidfielderA. Schafer
J. Woo-yeong
A. Kral
ForwardM. Ljubicic
I. Ansah
L. Riess
DefenderK. Potulski
MidfielderL. Maloney
P. Nebel
W. Boving
S. Kawasaki
ForwardA. Nordin
A. Sieb
N. Weiper
Missing players
A. Markgraf
ForwardR. Skov
D. Bogdanov
R. Zentner
DefenderP. Mwene
A. Caci
M. Dal
MidfielderD. Gleiber
Most goals and assists
Union Berlin
1 Fsv Mainz 05
O. Burke
(6 Goals)
N. Amiri
(12 Goals)
A. Ilic
(8 Assists)
B. Hollerbach
(3 Assists)
,
D. da Costa
(3 Assists)
, 
S. Becker
(3 Assists)
Union Berlin - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Key Points
- Union won their last two league fixtures.
- Mainz haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home this season.
- Mainz were beaten in seven of their last 11 Bundesliga games, drawing the other four.
- Mainz lost four of their last five away league games.
- The last five league matches between these sides produced BTTS, with Union Berlin winning three.
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Our Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction
Mainz went into the Bundesliga break at the bottom of the standings. They are six points adrift of safety and need to turn things around quickly to save their season. Their away record needs improvement, as Mainz could win just one point in their last five league trips. Union went into the break on a high, winning their last two league games and staying alive in the European qualification race.
The recent run of these sides combined with the historical record is why our Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 prediction is Union Berlin wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Union Berlin 1 Fsv Mainz 05
| Union Berlin vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin wins | 2.18 | 2.29 | +5.0% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.3 | -8.3% |
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 3.6 | 4 | +11.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Union Berlin is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 45.9% and is now 43.7% (-2.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
